Greece - Place your bets

Travelgall

LE
Kit Reviewer
#1
How long until it goes tits up again? Supposing this vote passes I personally see this this as a postponement of the inevitable. There is no improvement in the Greek Economic situation. Any other thoughts?
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#2
Throwing good money after bad.
 
#4
The way i see it, They are fooked whatever they do. Eventually though they will have to leave the Euro. So what i do not understand is why not get out of it now.
Bad times....
 

Mr_Fingerz

LE
Book Reviewer
#5
It would help the Greek Govts cause if they had a revenue collecting department that actually did its job.

Still, if it does all go the shape of pears this oldie but goodie can be welcomed back with open arms:

"Whats a grecian urn?" "About 2 Drachmas".
 
#6
Seems insane not to agree on a managed exit right now; surely better to limit the damage by doing it with everyone's co-operation, rather than have a massive uncontrolled crash-and-burn at some unpredictable moment in the near future?
 

Travelgall

LE
Kit Reviewer
#7
Seems insane not to agree on a managed exit right now; surely better to limit the damage by doing it with everyone's co-operation, rather than have a massive uncontrolled crash-and-burn at some unpredictable moment in the near future?
Agreed, but this is all about Politics at the moment, not Economics. If the Bubbles leave, then the Spanish, Portugese and Irish follow, there will be a lot of EU Comissioners out of a job. They would rather save their own pointless existence than the Greek Economy. Bit more complicated than that but ultimately what this boils down to?
 

OldSnowy

LE
Moderator
Book Reviewer
#8
If, as seems clear from Alsacien's informed posts on this matter, the EU simply will not LET the Greeks leave the Euro, then there is nothing in it for them to enforce the austerity measures. Vote them in, yes, but change habits? Why should they? Germany appears set on subsidising them for ever (as we in the SE subsidise the sweaties, sheep-molestors and Smithwicks drinkers over here) so they can continue to retire at 50, pay no tax, and be subsidised by the rest of the EU. More fool us, I'm afraid, as they are the gainers!
 
#9
Bailing out a bankrupt country with no manufacturing or income base other than some naff cheese and olive oil is barking.
 

Auld-Yin

ADC
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
Reviews Editor
#10
Cheap Greek holidays coming back - how many Drachma to the pound do you reckon?
 
B

bokkatankie

Guest
#11
I read somewhere that after this bail out, by 2015 Greece will have mind numbing 178% debt to GDP ratio. By my reckoning that is not good! Watching Bloomberg now the Greeks are busy destroying their own infrastructure so I would not rush to buy it.
 
#12
Time to get out of the EU, thankfully we're not in the Euro. By the time the whole of Europe's economy has settled down, give it 100 years or so, it might be time to go back.
 

Travelgall

LE
Kit Reviewer
#13
If, as seems clear from Alsacien's informed posts on this matter, the EU simply will not LET the Greeks leave the Euro, then there is nothing in it for them to enforce the austerity measures. Vote them in, yes, but change habits? Why should they? Germany appears set on subsidising them for ever (as we in the SE subsidise the sweaties, sheep-molestors and Smithwicks drinkers over here) so they can continue to retire at 50, pay no tax, and be subsidised by the rest of the EU. More fool us, I'm afraid, as they are the gainers!
I disagree, Frau Merkel is in a lousy political position. And the average Jurgen the German is not happy about subsidising his feckless Southern Neighbours. We have a shared history within the rest of the British Isles. The average German has nothing in common with a Greek person. The Politicial elite may not want to upset the EU applecart. The average voter couldn't care less.

Look on the bright side. At least this time we're not giving them money except the odd £5 through the IMF rather than the hundreds of millions we gave them last time.
 
#14
Budget:

revenues: $114.5 billion
expenditures: $142.9 billion (2010 est.)


Exports:

$21.14 billion (2010 est.)


Imports:

$44.9 billion (2010 est.)


Debt - external:

$532.9 billion (30 June 2010)


Proper****ed anyway you look at it.
 
#15
There was a Greek tax collector interviewed on R4 this morning who reckoned fully one third of the country's GDP went unreported to avoid tax.

He said they had a very good audit department who knew exactly how many cars, boats, houses and swimming pools everyone had but once the tax demand went in it just took a trip down to the local revenue office and a routine small bribe to get the whole thing written off.

You simply can't run a first world economy like that so they have to be cut lose, sooner rather than later.

However, and here I'm repeating myself, what is going on is that we are giving the Greeks money that they hand straight over to their creditors so it's really just an 'in-off' bank bailout.

The banks lent vast sums of money to a nation they know is as bent as a corkscrew knowing all the while their political cronies will step in with our money to cover any losses.

Then when things start heading South, knowing they are fireproof, the banks lend them even more money but this time they gouge the interest rate to cover the alleged extra 'risk' of lending.

Risk my arrse, they know Greece is going to go tits up and they're just padding the bill that the rest of us are going to get stuck with.

Cut the Greeks out and let the banks cover their own losses for a ****ing change.

'What's that Micawber, you let a customer run up a big bill and now he can't pay you?

'Well you should have thought of that in the first place, just hand your car and house keys in on the way out, there's a bus stop round the corner'

That's what you'd get from them and I reckon goose/sauce/gander time is well over due.
 
#16
Budget:

revenues: $114.5 billion
expenditures: $142.9 billion (2010 est.)

Exports:

$21.14 billion (2010 est.)

Imports:

$44.9 billion (2010 est.)

Debt - external:

$532.9 billion (30 June 2010)

Proper****ed anyway you look at it.
Those are frightening figures because they are living way beyond their means.

But what was the saying about debts?

If I have no income and owe the bank £10k, then I have a big problem...

If I have no income and owe the bank £10m, then the bank has a big problem...

Can I slip in the one about it isn't over until the Fat Lady sings...?

Good Lord, is that the time? Hat, coat, taxi...

Litotes
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#17
My money's on a Greek default in about 6 months time. The reasoning goes as follows:

1) The existing Greek governing party (Pasok) know that Greece will default sooner or later, but if they vote the austerity measures through they'll stay in power for another year or two. If they don't vote the austerity measure through, Greece will end up in uncontrolled default and Pasok will be wiped out at the ensuing snap election.

2) The Greek opposition is using reverse reasoning: if they oppose the austerity measures now, they can disclaim all responsibility for them. So they'll be banking on reaping the benefit at the next election.

3) The austerity measures will make no practical difference:

- They can't privatise fast enough or sell enough state firms to make a dent in their debt.
- Their tax collection system is so corrupt, they can never collect the taxes that their citizens should be paying.
- The austerity measures will just deepen their current recession, thus speeding up the decline in the Greek financial position.

4) The next tranche of loans will stave off disaster for some months, but the markets have done their sums and will be dumping Greek debt like there's no tomorrow. Money will also be flooding out of Greece. Over the next 6 months, the Greek banking system will gradually seize up.

5) In parallel, the street protests will grow in scale and become more violent. Greece will become increasingly ungovernable.

6) There will be a tipping point in about 6 months time when the Greek economy/banking system has ground to a halt and the street protests have become uncontainable. At that point Greece defaults on its debts, leaves the Euro and maybe the EU.

Wordsmith
 
#18
Perhaps I'll see you on the barricade Mr D! You can't actually blame the banks for having a go, but the financiers seem to have the whip hand over our elected politicians who just seem terrified of taking them on.

And until someone comes along with a virtual bayonet boss on their forehead and an elephant gun in the shape of a massive popular mandate to confront I can't see it changing.
 
#19
Two points:

Wish the UK had a bit more money to invest and we could buy into Greece and other countries infrastructure. Although...would it be worth it?

Those who really believe in the Euro Zone however will see this as just part of the big picture. If the euro is to compete with China/US/Mars etc in the future then problems like this have to faced and solved. I personally am unsure about the whole euro business even though I am very involved with 'european business' and have a reasonably good knowledge of the aims, background and current structure. I think alot of people have little idea what 'Europe' is and what involved with the EU means.

Boils down to the odl question: Is the UK better off alone to do business etc and be proactive etc or is it better as part of a huge trading block full of resources, strategic interests etc
The trouble is, this is the debate we are not allowed to have, and which is suppressed by the establishment.

My own view, having worked extensively overseas and in/around EU business, is that the concept of a big Euro-block seeing off the US/Russia/China is totally unrealistic and unattainable - short of another hundred years or so of war and readjustment within the EU zone. The Germans and others are already bent over the barrel cutting energy deals with the Russians in their own exclusive interests, and now you have China easily buying its way into a controlling influence in Europe (it will be interesting to see how the EU seat (replacing UK) at the UNSC votes when it comes to dealing with China's belligerent expansion...). The EU as a federal entity will just sink lower and lower into uncompetitiveness brought on by socialist legislation and taxation, and will have to resort to trade protectionism or further concessions to the Chinese, simply in order to afford to feed its populations.
 
#20
There was a Greek tax collector interviewed on R4 this morning who reckoned fully one third of the county's GDP went unreported to avoid tax.

He said they had a very good audit department who knew exactly how many cars, boats, houses and swimming pools everyone had but once the tax demand went in it just took a trip down to the local revenue office and a routine small bribe to get the whole thing written off.

You simply can't run a first world economy like that so they have to be cut lose, sooner rather than later.
Ah well the problem is that Greece is not a first world economy and never has been. Oddly enough there was a bit of boom in Greece recently : for sales of camo nets to cover the swimming pools in the the upmarket suburbs. They were marketed as "pool shading". But I digress.

Here is Ze Plan:

"THE European Union seems to have adopted a new rule: if a plan is not working, stick to it. Despite the thousands protesting in Athens, despite the judders in the markets, Europe’s leaders have a neat timetable to solve the euro zone’s problems. Next week Greece is likely to pass a new austerity package. It will then get the next €12 billion ($17 billion) of its first €110 billion bail-out, which it needs by mid-July. Assuming the Europeans agree on a face-saving “voluntary” participation by private creditors to please the Germans, a second bail-out of some €100 billion will follow. This will keep the country afloat through 2013, when a permanent euro-zone bail-out fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), will take effect. The euro will be saved and the world will applaud."

AKA Extend and Pretend. Some French and German banks (esp. Credit Agricole and Commerzbank respectively) are so donkey deep in the Greek mire they are depending on it as an indirect bail out.

The euro crisis: If Greece goes… | The Economist
 

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