Good Night Arlene - Poots pootles off

They may well vote Alliance or SDLP.. but if a referendum is called, a vast swath of Catholics in NI will vote to remain in the UK for economic reasons mainly.

That coupled with the vast majority of Unionists voting to remain in the UK, is a bridge Sinn Fein/IRA will never get their campaign for unity across.
They wouldn't be Unionists if they voted for a United Ireland would they?
 
Voting for a nationalist party certainly does not equate to voting for a united Ireland in a referendum.

The percentage of Catholic unionists, even at the very worst of the Troubles was around 10 percent. That was a figure for people who even through the hardest times firmly held to the belief that they were better off as part of the United Kingdom and despite all the stupidity and oafishness that their community endured at the hands of the Unionists and British government, they adhered to small "u" unionism. (I know personally of which I speak)

That hardcore Catholic unionist grouping has now been added to exponentially by the small "n" nationalists. These are middle class Catholics who probably only ever darken the door of a church these days for weddings and funerals, who gave up any pretense of adhering to Catholic matters of theology decades ago but who are still happy to get their kids into the excellent Catholic grammar schools.

Thousands of them have good jobs and pensions working for the British government or government-related agencies. If you asked them their nationality they'd say they were Irish (some of them might even apply for Irish passports these days, although I recall in my youth that hardly anybody did), they give their kids nice middle class Irish names like Caoimhe or Feachtna, many of them have an interest in the GAA even (again a bit of a rarity in my youth).

They vote SDLP and Sinn Fein because they could never, ever bring themselves to vote for a Unionist party with all the trappings of Orangeism and bigotry that these parties entail, even to this day, but when it comes to the privacy of the polling booth, when it comes to thinking about their pensions, their kids' educations, university and most importantly of all, the blessed, sainted NHS, their hands will pause over ticking the United Ireland box on the ballot paper.

Don't ever be fooled however into thinking that these people will then go out and run up the Union Jack and sing a few verses of "The Sash", they're still Irish nationalists and they will square that circle with their consciences in the same way they did when they sent their birth-controlled children to the local Catholic school.
 
However, in just the same way as the Tories are eating into the Red Wall of working class northern England while seeing their true blue-rinse seats in the Home Counties fall to those nice Liberal Democrats we must also examine the corollary, the Prods who are drifting to the united Ireland side of the river. And just as in England Brexit is the game-changer for many.

The middle-class “Garden Centre” Prods who were never part of the “fleg”-waving brigade and who have second homes in Donegal and love trips to Dublin to cheer on “Ahrland” in the rugby are looking at things a lot differently than back when the Free State was the priest-ridden bogeyman of old and the Provos were engaged in their fascistic assault on them and their community. They kinda like their freshly printed and quietly obtained Irish passports that they keep in a desk drawer for when they want to go on holiday to Europe, they don’t need to tell everybody about it but they might just give this united Ireland a go.

Maybe they are a negligible number, better-informed posters than me on this forum can tell us about that, but throw in the substantial number of “Others” who now live in NI, perhaps as much as 15 percent, and it’s all up in the air and an old-fashioned sectarian headcount will not be of much use.
 
However, in just the same way as the Tories are eating into the Red Wall of working class northern England while seeing their true blue-rinse seats in the Home Counties fall to those nice Liberal Democrats we must also examine the corollary, the Prods who are drifting to the united Ireland side of the river. And just as in England Brexit is the game-changer for many.

The middle-class “Garden Centre” Prods who were never part of the “fleg”-waving brigade and who have second homes in Donegal and love trips to Dublin to cheer on “Ahrland” in the rugby are looking at things a lot differently than back when the Free State was the priest-ridden bogeyman of old and the Provos were engaged in their fascistic assault on them and their community. They kinda like their freshly printed and quietly obtained Irish passports that they keep in a desk drawer for when they want to go on holiday to Europe, they don’t need to tell everybody about it but they might just give this united Ireland a go.

Maybe they are a negligible number, better-informed posters than me on this forum can tell us about that, but throw in the substantial number of “Others” who now live in NI, perhaps as much as 15 percent, and it’s all up in the air and an old-fashioned sectarian headcount will not be of much use.
FFS and you wonder why the English don't understand the Irish!
 

JCC

LE
Just as you thought they couldn't get any more stupid there are now reports that Donaldson won't nominate a First Minister for Stormont unless SF agree to re-negotiate the Irish language provisions.


Do the DUP really think a forced election in a month or so would be to their advantage?
 
They wouldn't be Unionists if they voted for a United Ireland would they?
The vast majority from within what would be described as Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist communities in a particular area, would vote to remain in the UK, was what I meant. Believed to be 90% plus of that demographic.

The latest poll I seen by the Sunday Times on 12th June, puts reunification at 30% with 17% of Catholics saying they would vote to remain in the UK.
 
The vast majority from within what would be described as Protestant/Unionist/Loyalist communities in a particular area, would vote to remain in the UK, was what I meant. Believed to be 90% plus of that demographic.

The latest poll I seen by the Sunday Times on 12th June, puts reunification at 30% with 17% of Catholics saying they would vote to remain in the UK.

You can be sure that there is a fair old % of R.C.'s that will say UI, but think the opposite in private.
 
Just as you thought they couldn't get any more stupid there are now reports that Donaldson won't nominate a First Minister for Stormont unless SF agree to re-negotiate the Irish language provisions.


Do the DUP really think a forced election in a month or so would be to their advantage?

That is what seems to pass for “strategic thinking” in their ‘brains trust’ these days.
 
However, in just the same way as the Tories are eating into the Red Wall of working class northern England while seeing their true blue-rinse seats in the Home Counties fall to those nice Liberal Democrats we must also examine the corollary, the Prods who are drifting to the united Ireland side of the river. And just as in England Brexit is the game-changer for many.

The middle-class “Garden Centre” Prods who were never part of the “fleg”-waving brigade and who have second homes in Donegal and love trips to Dublin to cheer on “Ahrland” in the rugby are looking at things a lot differently than back when the Free State was the priest-ridden bogeyman of old and the Provos were engaged in their fascistic assault on them and their community. They kinda like their freshly printed and quietly obtained Irish passports that they keep in a desk drawer for when they want to go on holiday to Europe, they don’t need to tell everybody about it but they might just give this united Ireland a go.

Maybe they are a negligible number, better-informed posters than me on this forum can tell us about that, but throw in the substantial number of “Others” who now live in NI, perhaps as much as 15 percent, and it’s all up in the air and an old-fashioned sectarian headcount will not be of much use.

Reference your third paragraph: there would be quite a lot who will certainly think about it, but when in the polling booth (rather like the ‘shy unionists’ who dig with the other foot) that is when the moment of truth impacts on the shaky hand which holds the writing implement.

Asked to guess, I’d say the ‘new northerners’ would – probably by a comfortable margin – vote for the status quo, being the devil they know (and came there for in the first place).
 
Voting for a nationalist party certainly does not equate to voting for a united Ireland in a referendum.

The percentage of Catholic unionists, even at the very worst of the Troubles was around 10 percent. That was a figure for people who even through the hardest times firmly held to the belief that they were better off as part of the United Kingdom and despite all the stupidity and oafishness that their community endured at the hands of the Unionists and British government, they adhered to small "u" unionism. (I know personally of which I speak)

That hardcore Catholic unionist grouping has now been added to exponentially by the small "n" nationalists. These are middle class Catholics who probably only ever darken the door of a church these days for weddings and funerals, who gave up any pretense of adhering to Catholic matters of theology decades ago but who are still happy to get their kids into the excellent Catholic grammar schools.

Thousands of them have good jobs and pensions working for the British government or government-related agencies. If you asked them their nationality they'd say they were Irish (some of them might even apply for Irish passports these days, although I recall in my youth that hardly anybody did), they give their kids nice middle class Irish names like Caoimhe or Feachtna, many of them have an interest in the GAA even (again a bit of a rarity in my youth).

They vote SDLP and Sinn Fein because they could never, ever bring themselves to vote for a Unionist party with all the trappings of Orangeism and bigotry that these parties entail, even to this day, but when it comes to the privacy of the polling booth, when it comes to thinking about their pensions, their kids' educations, university and most importantly of all, the blessed, sainted NHS, their hands will pause over ticking the United Ireland box on the ballot paper.

Don't ever be fooled however into thinking that these people will then go out and run up the Union Jack and sing a few verses of "The Sash", they're still Irish nationalists and they will square that circle with their consciences in the same way they did when they sent their birth-controlled children to the local Catholic school.

Good summary.

It nicely illustrates why, as a couple of friends in County Antrim – former London residents – say, the north is screaming out for unionist (and middle of the road) realignment.

There is opportunity now, thanks to the DUP idiocy. There is plenty of room in the middle for a broad tent – a good start would be shoving the tub of lard in charge of Alliance out of the way, and getting wee Eastwood to follow his nonsectarian instincts rather more often than he does some of the scripts given to him by party managers.

This may be clinging to more than one straw, but I am hopeful that the darkest hour is this one - just before dawn.
 
Reference your third paragraph: there would be quite a lot who will certainly think about it, but when in the polling booth (rather like the ‘shy unionists’ who dig with the other foot) that is when the moment of truth impacts on the shaky hand which holds the writing implement.

Asked to guess, I’d say the ‘new northerners’ would – probably by a comfortable margin – vote for the status quo, being the devil they know (and came there for in the first place).
I remember a couple of regular Parachute Regiment warrant officers and SNCO's in the mid nineties when we were training at Lydd in Kent on the NI ranges and village with 10 Para. They had all done numerous tours in the badlands of Ulster since the early seventies. They said that although they got the usual abuse when the godfathers were about, out of earshot of them especially at nightimes they got a lot of encouragement and "well done lads" whispered to them.
 
you’d be surprised, the army (sorry I mean party) council may not give a fiddlers but many of the younger electorate/disenfranchised doing and SF have been courting them for the last 10 years

edit: for example marriage equality & abortion
Is that Sinn Fein in the North or the South though?
 

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I think He means loyalists will soon be out bred by nationalists. We need a new campaign. Shag For Ulster. Something like that. It could catch on. ;)
Jeez, I think we were told that the Caffliks would outgrow the Prods as they had more babies per family. And that briefing was for our first tour in 1970, as background information.
 
Jeez, I think we were told that the Caffliks would outgrow the Prods as they had more babies per family. And that briefing was for our first tour in 1970, as background information.
We were told there's be a United Ireland in 2016 as well.. they're not very good at carrying out their promises :D
 
Jeez, I think we were told that the Caffliks would outgrow the Prods as they had more babies per family. And that briefing was for our first tour in 1970, as background information.

"Demographics Are coming to GET YOU!"

Been hearing that all my life too (born 1973). Trouble is (for them)

(a) falling RC birthrate*
(b) educated RCs leave NI at a higher % than educated Prods (who tend to come back in higher numbers)
(c) Not all all RC are pro-UI. Queen's University (Fenian-infested) got a shock when they did their own research ~4 years ago.
(d) Nearly all Prods (apart from some weirdos) are pro-UK.

* Prod Spides breed at a roughly similar rate to Fenian Spides.**

**Spides=Chavs.
 
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