Globalisation uber alles

Profuse apologies for acknowledging the Sun - but this interviewer is bloody good AND this interviewee tells you what China is doing.

c.8.05 it's reminded me that we were supposed to be able to have a bilateral relationship with Ex Soviet Russia as well. Stalin's own Russia had pretty much the same aims of communist expansion in the 1930's, so we've made the same mistake twice at least
 
Because it doesn't work like that. You can't just skim the cream off the top because everyone else wants that cream too. Why do you think Huawei is building our 5G? There is no British, or even Western company that can do it anymore. They all moved their "low value added" work to China, did they imagine that the Chinese would happily do that work forever and never try to move up the value chain themselves? (In fact that's almost certainly what they did believe).
The value chain doesn’t only lie in manufacturing though, not does it only lie at the top. There’s profit at every level.

The first fallacy is that Western countries abandoned manufacture. They didn’t; they were pushed out of the market because the couldn’t compete in terms of time, costs and quality. So they went bust. There are lists of factors that cause that, but you can’t stop it by protection. All you do then is force those industries that are profitable to subsidise those that aren’t.

The second fallacy is the lump of labour fallacy. The global market isn’t a fixed thing market in which countries compete for a share. Trade begets trade. You should read Smith and Riccardo.

The simple fact is that the UK indigenous market is too small to support a company developing 5G. So, if you want a UK 5G competitor that can take global share, you have to create conditions so it can.
 

Bob65

War Hero
The simple fact is that the UK indigenous market is too small to support a company developing 5G. So, if you want a UK 5G competitor that can take global share, you have to create conditions so it can
Sure, but the Finnish indigenous was too small to support Nokia, or Sweden's Ericcson, but these companies once dominated mobile telecoms, so those conditions did exist in the West once. But it's a repeating pattern, give away the low-end work, reap lavish profits in the short term, then wake up one morning to find that the high-end carpet has been pulled out from under you. And that your one remaining asset, a once trusted brand, is also worthless because now people associate it with tat.
 
Sure, but the Finnish indigenous was too small to support Nokia, or Sweden's Ericcson, but these companies once dominated mobile telecoms, so those conditions did exist in the West once. But it's a repeating pattern, give away the low-end work, reap lavish profits in the short term, then wake up one morning to find that the high-end carpet has been pulled out from under you. And that your one remaining asset, a once trusted brand, is also worthless because now people associate it with tat.
The point is that they don’t dominate mobile telecoms anymore. They had early entry advantage as market disruptors. It’s natural selection. A gold thing.
 
I heartily concur. But when you mention "Anglo-Saxon", how will you combat accusations of being a "White Supremacist"?
Self identify as black and accuse anyone of racism if they question your argument?
 
Sure, but the Finnish indigenous was too small to support Nokia, or Sweden's Ericcson, but these companies once dominated mobile telecoms, so those conditions did exist in the West once. But it's a repeating pattern, give away the low-end work, reap lavish profits in the short term, then wake up one morning to find that the high-end carpet has been pulled out from under you. And that your one remaining asset, a once trusted brand, is also worthless because now people associate it with tat.
Nokia failed because they had no exit strategy from moving on from Symbian, then Microsoft bought them and asset stripped them. (The whole burning bridges strategy they had burnt the house down in the end)

What is now Nokia is a pale shadow of their former selves
 
The value chain doesn’t only lie in manufacturing though, not does it only lie at the top. There’s profit at every level.

The simple fact is that the UK indigenous market is too small to support a company developing 5G. So, if you want a UK 5G competitor that can take global share, you have to create conditions so it can.
point one, that begs another question though doesn’t it? Our defunct motor cycle industry was at one point the only serious competition and the goods were bought in numbers. I still maintain that this country never liked the concept of property ownership, that’s why HP tax forced the ownership of motor cycle side car combos. We’ve never really had the concept of a mass market. on the other hand the provision for tax reductions on losses is an incentive to invest.

point two. What you’re in effect saying is that most smallish countries are screwed and may as well get used to being manipulated and spied upon because there is no other option due to sheer scale. Not that encouraging is it? I mean it’s an open secret that everyone spies on each other, that’s what embassies are for.
 
point one, that begs another question though doesn’t it? Our defunct motor cycle industry was at one point the only serious competition and the goods were bought in numbers. I still maintain that this country never liked the concept of property ownership, that’s why HP tax forced the ownership of motor cycle side car combos. We’ve never really had the concept of a mass market. on the other hand the provision for tax reductions on losses is an incentive to invest.

point two. What you’re in effect saying is that most smallish countries are screwed and may as well get used to being manipulated and spied upon because there is no other option due to sheer scale. Not that encouraging is it? I mean it’s an open secret that everyone spies on each other, that’s what embassies are for.
t
On point one, the motor cycle industry failed because it expensive flogged antiquated garbage. However, it is not defunct. The resurrected Triumph is a highly profitable niche manufacturer.

Which answers point two. Economies like the UK thrive by being innovative particularly in niche markets. For a while, the Range Rover Sport was the highest margin car sold globally. There’s no point trying to compete selling mass market goods into large markets.
 
t
On point one, the motor cycle industry failed because it expensive flogged antiquated garbage. However, it is not defunct. The resurrected Triumph is a highly profitable niche manufacturer.

Which answers point two. Economies like the UK thrive by being innovative particularly in niche markets. For a while, the Range Rover Sport was the highest margin car sold globally. There’s no point trying to compete selling mass market goods into large markets.
Again I wouldn’t disagree about the niche markets bit, but that’s precisely where the stuffing has been kicked out. I said at one point our motorcycles were really the only option, not that they didn’t sell antiquated stuff later. Rover learned that lesson in the 1920’s when the issue was that cars built didn’t equate to cash earned and reverted to order books. Every car then built was a profit. But the truth is that the modern motoring industry depends on huge levels of debt.
 

ROMFT

Old-Salt
What you’re in effect saying is that most smallish countries are screwed and may as well get used to being manipulated and spied upon because there is no other option due to sheer scale.
Which would be one of the strong arguments in favour of the EEC/EU, if it hadn't become a self-perpetuating self-centered wealth-wasting bureaucratic semi-dictatorship.
 
Which would be one of the strong arguments in favour of the EEC/EU, if it hadn't become a self-perpetuating self-centered wealth-wasting bureaucratic semi-dictatorship.
No I'd reject that. The Grand plan was in the fullness of time become a centralised country,if that were to happen seamlessly-which is a pipe dream- then possibly, but Europe can't become that for obvious reasons. It could have happened 75 years ago but not now, that's where the EU missed the boat.
 
c.8.05 it's reminded me that we were supposed to be able to have a bilateral relationship with Ex Soviet Russia as well. Stalin's own Russia had pretty much the same aims of communist expansion in the 1930's, so we've made the same mistake twice at least
We sold the soviets a jet engine and when you say it now you have to think how truly dim the 'greatest generation' were at times.... Then we have made the same mistakes with china, but you have france/Israel who have both sold military technology to china and at some, you have to say not one step further.

My view stands, that companies should be given 12 months notice of an absolutely honking tariff.
 
We sold the soviets a jet engine and when you say it now you have to think how truly dim the 'greatest generation' were at times.... Then we have made the same mistakes with china, but you have france/Israel who have both sold military technology to china and at some, you have to say not one step further.

My view stands, that companies should be given 12 months notice of an absolutely honking tariff.
Oh we sold out at every level, that was the price we paid for WW 2 which really makes it stupid. Not only that we sold out our principals by letting the SU have their sphere of influence that meant that basically Versailles did have a price. America got jet engines and Nuclear technology which they then determined we could have back at a price. That's what we should be remembering at the Cenotaph on the 11th November. The French and the Germans have learned that losing is not the end of the world and we have learned that winning is not about the war it's the peace that matters. The overall winner of this is France, because we fought their wars twice and sacrificed the empire. Stupidly I feel. The Empire had a price, it did have to go, but not that way, in a rush that satisfied no one and caused other problems.
 

ROMFT

Old-Salt
No I'd reject that. The Grand plan was in the fullness of time become a centralised country,if that were to happen seamlessly-which is a pipe dream- then possibly, but Europe can't become that for obvious reasons. It could have happened 75 years ago but not now, that's where the EU missed the boat.
Well i'm a dual nationality Brit/Irish, living in the Netherlands, my other half is Romanian & if i win the lottery tomorrow my first thing is to buy an apartment in Budapest, Hungary.
So i feel European, but yes the EU central government has for a long time been f@@king it all up.
Not a United States of Europe but a Federated Union who could work together to stand up to mighty powers like the USA, China & Russia.
We actually had a good example of this when many European countries sent Gendarmerie to help the Greeks turn back the "refugee" wave that Erdoğan recently unleashed, & to face down the Turkish border police & SF who were trying to help them breach the border.
Such a shame that the central policies are in the hands of (very) career politicians.
Worth noting that, if it wasn't for the obvious economic advantages, many of the East/Central European countries would happily give Brussels the finger.
Another one for the wish list, a complete reboot of the EU so that we that we have enough power to ensure that we don't become prey to the USA/neo-USSR/China, like the Chinese have been doing to Africa.
Dream on :rolleyes:.

By the way, this is not a anti-Brexit thing, i do think that Brexit is the correct thing for the UK.
 
I was wondering where to post this interesting discussion. It could have gone on several threads but economics is fundamental to recovery.

They cover a fair bit of ground including CV19 actions by various countries, the economic impact of lockdown, globalisation, markets, China and the USA becoming more inward looking, China adapting to have a more home centric market as it did before. Questions about big organisations. EU seen as having failed over CV19 in the early stages, ignoring the so called single economy that was fundamental to them.

The picture from Sweden isn't as rosy as is depicted in the UK. Impact of the press who are no longer trusted.

Live with Littlewood: Julia Hartley-Brewer, Douglas Carswell, Kate Andrews and many more

IEA Director General Mark Littlewood will be joined by a stellar panel of guests to discuss economic disintegration, global governance, immigration and more. On the show:
Kate Andrews, Economics Correspondent, The Spectator
Adam Bartha, Director, Epicenter
Douglas Carswell, former MP
Claire Fox, Founder, Institute of Ideas
Darren Grimes, Director, Reasoned
Julia Hartley-Brewer, Presenter, talkRADIO
Matt Kilcoyne, Deputy Director, Adam Smith Institute
Karin Svanborg-Sjövall, Chief Executive, Timbro

 
Well i'm a dual nationality Brit/Irish, living in the Netherlands, my other half is Romanian & if i win the lottery tomorrow my first thing is to buy an apartment in Budapest, Hungary.
So i feel European, but yes the EU central government has for a long time been f@@king it all up.
Not a United States of Europe but a Federated Union who could work together to stand up to mighty powers like the USA, China & Russia.
We actually had a good example of this when many European countries sent Gendarmerie to help the Greeks turn back the "refugee" wave that Erdoğan recently unleashed, & to face down the Turkish border police & SF who were trying to help them breach the border.
Such a shame that the central policies are in the hands of (very) career politicians.
Worth noting that, if it wasn't for the obvious economic advantages, many of the East/Central European countries would happily give Brussels the finger.
Another one for the wish list, a complete reboot of the EU so that we that we have enough power to ensure that we don't become prey to the USA/neo-USSR/China, like the Chinese have been doing to Africa.
Dream on :rolleyes:.

By the way, this is not a anti-Brexit thing, i do think that Brexit is the correct thing for the UK.
Not a United States but a federated Union? No it has to be all or nothing if a centrist. That is the core of the EUropean argument. Either we have loose EEC model designed only for trade and co operation. It’s the concentration on political domination that is the problem, but it is the way to understand why Europe cannot match centrism driven China or US.
 
Again I wouldn’t disagree about the niche markets bit, but that’s precisely where the stuffing has been kicked out. I said at one point our motorcycles were really the only option, not that they didn’t sell antiquated stuff later. Rover learned that lesson in the 1920’s when the issue was that cars built didn’t equate to cash earned and reverted to order books. Every car then built was a profit. But the truth is that the modern motoring industry depends on huge levels of debt.
British motor bikes were the only option in a way that Trabants were the only option for a car in East Germany. Their market was protected. The fact that East Germany protected with a physical barrier and Britain with non-tariff barriers is largely irrelevant. The result is the same; customers being flogged over-priced, out of date garbage.

The car industry is very capital intensive; long product development cycles and complex production make it so. But Debt / Equity ratios of the major players are often quite low. Pre-COVID, Toyota’s was very low at 0.53 and the likes of GM, BMW and Tata (JLR) were all under 1.5. Not exactly highly leveraged.
 

Londo

LE
I think the desire for cheap production will win out as always.

in the past production used to move to a new developing areas every 10-15 years - japan - taiwan/hong kong - vietnam/thailand - singapore malaysia mexico/brazil etc..

china is so big than now it has its hand on it will move within itself another 3 or 4 times yet.

moving that production home might not even be possible because western economies and populations do not think they have to work/save for things anymore and everything must be cheap.

and yet it isn't, they still charge western made prices for goods produced in the east.

the setup costs alone will prevent most things being made back in the west.

few western nations have managed to keep a hold of their electronics and clothing industries.

the only way to remove some of it from china will be to finally allow africa to develop, exploiting its own resources and workforce. it's why china is buying the place up..
 

ROMFT

Old-Salt
Not a United States but a federated Union? No it has to be all or nothing if a centrist. That is the core of the EUropean argument.
There is a voice in many European countries for the middle way, for a strong EEC without the constant focus on forcing a SJW/woke agenda on countries that aren't yet ready for such & maybe never will be, especially if they feel that it's being forced on them.
Unfortunately the people who make it to the top in Brussels are those who are totally sold on the United States of Europe ideal, & usually 2nd rate politicians into the bargain, who have never worked in the real economy.
Unfortunately also, people who think like me find that too often we are lumped in with the far right batsh1t crazy lunatics so then it's hard to find the voters in the mass middle ground.
But this is diverting from the main point... That a strong European cooperation is necessary, be it against Chinese economic might or to face down leaders like Putin or Erdoğan.
But like i said, i won't be holding my breath while waiting for this.
 
Well i'm a dual nationality Brit/Irish, living in the Netherlands, my other half is Romanian & if i win the lottery tomorrow my first thing is to buy an apartment in Budapest, Hungary.
So i feel European, but yes the EU central government has for a long time been f@@king it all up.
Not a United States of Europe but a Federated Union who could work together to stand up to mighty powers like the USA, China & Russia.
We actually had a good example of this when many European countries sent Gendarmerie to help the Greeks turn back the "refugee" wave that Erdoğan recently unleashed, & to face down the Turkish border police & SF who were trying to help them breach the border.
Such a shame that the central policies are in the hands of (very) career politicians.
Worth noting that, if it wasn't for the obvious economic advantages, many of the East/Central European countries would happily give Brussels the finger.
Another one for the wish list, a complete reboot of the EU so that we that we have enough power to ensure that we don't become prey to the USA/neo-USSR/China, like the Chinese have been doing to Africa.
Dream on :rolleyes:.

By the way, this is not a anti-Brexit thing, i do think that Brexit is the correct thing for the UK.
An EU reboot would probably work to bring the UK back in the fold, but when have your career politicians operating outside of democratic control, when have they ever being known to hand power over to anyone.
 

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