Globalisation uber alles

Massively overvalued market. GDP to Debt Ratio on the rise globally. Drop in Global consumer demand. Politically, every country who signed up FULLY to a procurement uber alles, are now in the process of recreating domestic manufacturing(rebalance economy), in advance of another pandemic.

How far and how deep do we expect this recession to be and what effects will it have geo-politics ?
 
I expect it to bite for 2-3 years (here). America first will be the mantra for a few generations. This pandemic has shown that in order to be a sovereign nation, a country has to be able to produce vital things at home and not source it out to the Chinese. So globalization has been shown to be a deadly mistake.
 

Grumblegrunt

LE
Book Reviewer
I think the desire for cheap production will win out as always.

in the past production used to move to a new developing areas every 10-15 years - japan - taiwan/hong kong - vietnam/thailand - singapore malaysia mexico/brazil etc..

china is so big than now it has its hand on it will move within itself another 3 or 4 times yet.

moving that production home might not even be possible because western economies and populations do not think they have to work/save for things anymore and everything must be cheap.

and yet it isn't, they still charge western made prices for goods produced in the east.

the setup costs alone will prevent most things being made back in the west.

few western nations have managed to keep a hold of their electronics and clothing industries.

the only way to remove some of it from china will be to finally allow africa to develop, exploiting its own resources and workforce. it's why china is buying the place up..
 
It will last up to a decade from my perspective, recession & depression, currency crisis, the almost hot China v's US and allies multi spectrum conflict, inflation, wealth taxes, more of all taxes.

Re-shoring & nearshoring will lead to a big blue collar renaissance in the UK and help a lot with stability in North Africa – Morocco & Tunisia so far are places I know that will be receiving a fair bit of former China mnf. China, speaking as an old hand, is in huge trouble.
 
I think the desire for cheap production will win out as always.

in the past production used to move to a new developing areas every 10-15 years - japan - taiwan/hong kong - vietnam/thailand - singapore malaysia mexico/brazil etc..

china is so big than now it has its hand on it will move within itself another 3 or 4 times yet.

moving that production home might not even be possible because western economies and populations do not think they have to work/save for things anymore and everything must be cheap.

and yet it isn't, they still charge western made prices for goods produced in the east.

the setup costs alone will prevent most things being made back in the west.

few western nations have managed to keep a hold of their electronics and clothing industries.

the only way to remove some of it from china will be to finally allow africa to develop, exploiting its own resources and workforce. it's why china is buying the place up..
China has not been a cheap place to mnf for years, many Chinese companies I know mnf in Ethiopia to re import to the China market, not the International one. A whole raft of complexities are going to get China to start to retrench, as will be with the rest of us.
 
Globalisation was a Ponzi scheme and like any scheme, you had winners and lots of losers, but the bluff was called by corona and I can't see the system resetting itself any time soon. I am actually a bit scared of this recession, because the money printers are already running so hot to stop the recession, turning into a depression that lasts for years (but seriously how long can that last).

Do we see Brexit as a positive in a depression, or the opposite ? Oddly, I think the level playing field market is now dead and a bit more freedom and wiggle room might not be such a bad thing in the medium and long term.
 
Last edited:
Globalisation was a Ponzi scheme and like any scheme, you had winners and lots of losers, but the bluff was called by corona and I can't see the system resetting itself any time soon. I am actually a bit scared of this recession, because the money printers are already running so hot to stop the recession, turning into a depression that lasts for years (but seriously how long can that last).

Do we see Brexit as a positive in a depression, or the opposite ? Oddly, I think the level playing field market is now dead and a bit more freedom and wiggle room might not be such a bad thing in the medium and long term.
Well remaining with the EU has many pros and cons. Depending on how the U.K. plays its cards. But it also seems that you folks will be remaining in the Anglosphere with the recent choices made by your government.
 
China has not been a cheap place to mnf for years,
Some german companies have discovered that and now manufacture in Germany. Using the latest in smart machinery and robots they don't have to worry too much about labour costs. Import duties and huge transport costs are also a thing of the past.
 
Some german companies have discovered that and now manufacture in Germany. Using the latest in smart machinery and robots they don't have to worry too much about labour costs. Import duties and huge transport costs are also a thing of the past.
The other factor is the sheer unreliability of trained Chinese labour, every Chinese New Year you will lose 30% or more poached by competitors, plus the only child policy means that no one want to be a factory hand any more. And don't get me started on adulterated ingrediants or parts, a huge problem for Chinese companies being ripped off by other Chinese companies.

A friend of mine (Chinese) moved his factory from Jiangsu Province (one of the better ones) to Alabhama 7 years ago and he loves that fact that his blue collar US workers are reliable and happy to work the same lathes for years, for which he pays and treats them well. He does not miss employing Chinese at all and even less the regular CCP local cadre shakedowns. The novelty of component suppliers not trying to provide sub standard parts from the third delivery onwards he still cannot get over.
 
Last edited:
The other factor is the sheer unreliability of trained Chinese labour, every Chinese New Year you will loose 30% or more poached by competitors, plus the only child policy means that no one want to be a factory hand any more. And don't get me started on adulterated ingrediants or parts, a huge problem for Chinese companies being ripped off by other Chinese companies.

A friend of mine (Chinese) moved his factory from Jiangsu Province (one of the better ones) to Alabhama 7 years ago and he loves that fact that his blue collar US workers are reliable and happy to work the same lathes for years, for which he pays and treats them well. He does not miss employing Chinese at all and even less the regular CCP local cadre shakedowns. The novelty of component suppliers not trying to provide sub standard parts from the third delivery onwards he still cannot get over.
Not just china, anyone remember the Turkish PPE ? most people I'm sure, have noticed a serious decline in the reliability of everything we buy over the past decade and that is exactly what your alluding to......
 
Well remaining with the EU has many pros and cons. Depending on how the U.K. plays its cards. But it also seems that you folks will be remaining in the Anglosphere with the recent choices made by your government.
People in the UK have talked about the rebalancing of our economy for decades and were largely ignored, because the patriots in the city of London, were able to make so much money by importing tat, to sell at a competitive price, which undercut our domestic industry, that then led to offshoring. But who cares ? well come a crisis, we have to switch too capacity building and why corona is a little worse hear than say Germany.
 
People in the UK have talked about the rebalancing of our economy for decades and were largely ignored, because the patriots in the city of London, were able to make so much money by importing tat, to sell at a competitive price, which undercut our domestic industry, that then led to offshoring. But who cares ? well come a crisis, we have to switch too capacity building and why corona is a little worse hear than say Germany.
It is same in many Western countries. The US, France, UK, etc. Not everybody has benefited from Globalisation. The elites in places like New York, London, Paris are a bit out of touch with their peers. The pandemic however has managed to open eyes, at least here. Cheap is not all it is cracked up to be, and people will have to get used to paying more for things and having less material $hit.
 
The other factor is the sheer unreliability of trained Chinese labour, every Chinese New Year you will loose 30% or more poached by competitors, plus the only child policy means that no one want to be a factory hand any more. And don't get me started on adulterated ingrediants or parts, a huge problem for Chinese companies being ripped off by other Chinese companies.

A friend of mine (Chinese) moved his factory from Jiangsu Province (one of the better ones) to Alabhama 7 years ago and he loves that fact that his blue collar US workers are reliable and happy to work the same lathes for years, for which he pays and treats them well. He does not miss employing Chinese at all and even less the regular CCP local cadre shakedowns. The novelty of component suppliers not trying to provide sub standard parts from the third delivery onwards he still cannot get over.
exhibit a: knock off Honda Cub engines.

you can buy them from China for @£200.
some will last a few hundred miles, some thousands, none will match the million mile legend that was the Honda original.
all made by pop up factories in Ghuanzou, if you find a decent quality supply, no point Expecting to reorder, the factory will be gone in a few months as it’s undercut and goes under. That’s the reality of the funded by infinite debt Chinese ‘miracle’, it’s a relentless race to the bottom of the barrel.
 

FHA

LE
Depends also on what you manufacture. The cost of electricity: if you have an energy intensive process i.e. steel then it's a very significant factor.
We're going "Carbon Zero" so forget it.
 
This has been a global shake-up. The extent to which the world has become dependent upon China was until now something that we were quite content to go along with.

The true nature of that dependence has all too suddenly been made clear. It has been a hidden global take over. China has been buying massive ammounts of vital infrastructure all over the world.

Various countries, leaders, companies, facilities, strategic assets, minerals, factories have been quietly financially taken over. The wholesale global cyber theft that they have indulged in has enabled them to advance far quicker that they would have otherwise.

The CCP and their cruel despotic ideology is a global danger that has until recently been ignored, until this recent devastating crisis. If it has opened our eyes to the danger it will have been an ill wind that blew at least that into our consciousness.
 
This has been a global shake-up. The extent to which the world has become dependent upon China was until now something that we were quite content to go along with.

The true nature of that dependence has all too suddenly been made clear. It has been a hidden global take over. China has been buying massive ammounts of vital infrastructure all over the world.

Various countries, leaders, companies, facilities, strategic assets, minerals, factories have been quietly financially taken over. The wholesale global cyber theft that they have indulged in has enabled them to advance far quicker that they would have otherwise.

The CCP and their cruel despotic ideology is a global danger that has until recently been ignored, until this recent devastating crisis. If it has opened our eyes to the danger it will have been an ill wind that blew at least that into our consciousness.
I myself accept some blame, because to an extent I was supportive of a swing to china, as I tended to view Europe as anti-democratic and as such, the despotic is not necessarily any worse in economic terms...... Certainly I have changed my outlook and think its time we recognise all anti-democratic forces as an enemy and that includes Russia.

Your right; its my view that those who were opposed to globalisation, were never calling for an autarkic economy, but simply arguing that people in favour, were simply NOT laying out the downsides and those forces were bang on the money.... As a geo-political comment I think the idea of some form of anglo-saxon/free market alliance/commonwealth going forward is something worth exploring.
 
I myself accept some blame, because to an extent I was supportive of a swing to china, as I tended to view Europe as anti-democratic and as such, the despotic is not necessarily any worse in economic terms...... Certainly I have changed my outlook and think its time we recognise all anti-democratic forces as an enemy and that includes Russia.

Your right; its my view that those who were opposed to globalisation, were never calling for an autarkic economy, but simply arguing that people in favour, were simply NOT laying out the downsides and those forces were bang on the money.... As a geo-political comment I think the idea of some form of anglo-saxon/free market alliance/commonwealth going forward is something worth exploring.
Huh! That's some reasoning
 
Always good to see the results of the last 'kipperatti Zoom meeting....
 

mcphee1948

War Hero
As a geo-political comment I think the idea of some form of anglo-saxon/free market alliance/commonwealth going forward is something worth exploring.
I heartily concur. But when you mention "Anglo-Saxon", how will you combat accusations of being a "White Supremacist"?
 
Some german companies have discovered that and now manufacture in Germany. Using the latest in smart machinery and robots they don't have to worry too much about labour costs. Import duties and huge transport costs are also a thing of the past.
That should have happened decades ago. But firms were never going to invest when there was an endless suppy of cheap labour were they.
 

Latest Threads

Top