Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by KGB_resident, Feb 1, 2006.
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Suggests to me they will continue unchanged, if US withdrew and become insular,although still powerful it would surely leave a vaccum to be filled?
...with help of ms.Rice I suppose.
They'll be bending over backwards for the Chinese.
Wonder how long it will take them to lay some claim on the south china seas
What makes me laugh is the fact that in typical arrogant fashion they neglect the rest of the worlds use for oil, after all in 2025 we will be about 10 years away from exhausting all the worlds known oil supplies, but hey as long as they're ok... Don't mean to sound like some tree hugging hippy but I do think more emphisis needs to be put on research into alternative energy resources rather than weaning consumers off their 'addiction'.
As for the role of the USA, why should their role rise? They're too dependant on foreign imports for their strength. As they grow, their demand will increase naturally, so what happens when their demand overtakes the supply available? Are they self sufficient enough to cope? I doubt it.
Well Sergey, opinion is mixed as to the future influence of the USA, but I think we can all agree that Russia's influence on the world will continue to decline over the next 20 years, no?
Don't bet on it. Oil, gas and a slide into totalitarianism?
We're going to invade them for having WMD in 2015 (after Iran, of course...)
Andy, the question (and poll) was about Septic influence, not that of Russia.
I voted that their influence will wane slightly, since they still seem to be enthusiastically shovelling away at the very deep financial hole they've dug for themselves.
A few pointers at what could happen if all the debtors decide to foreclose might lead to them winding their arrogant necks in a bit. I hope so anyway.
First of all I should note that I don't belong to British military and don't take part in any voting (not to distort the whole picture).
As to my question then I think that global role of USA will rather ramain unchanged or will be slightly (very slightly) lower. Cause is a simple one. Role of USA is so big now that there is no room for future expanding.
As to Russia then its influence in 90's became so low that it is not a hard task to make it biger. However I agree with you, moreover wish to see a decline of Russian global influence in the World. It is too expensive and unprofitable busuness. Russia should concentrate its efforts on areas of its vital interests (in central Asia, for example). As to Africa (and some other regions) then I propose mr.Blair to care about African peoples, moreover he himself is eager to help poor nations (in expense of British taxpayers of course).
USA want to implement democracy (or 'democracy'?) in remote corners of our unperfect World. God help them but I myself would not invest even a penny in 'Global democracy inc.'
By the way Russia closed its military bases in Cuba and Vietnam. I support it and not because it is too expensive. Now Russia has money (reserves of central bank are $185bln.) Russia should develop own economy, science, education, medical system. Russians are (relatively) educated people. It is our strong point. And our main wealth is not oil and gas but our intellectual capital. It is a crazy idea to spend it in senseless wars.
You're absolutely right Sergei. I was hugely impressed during my only visit to Russia
by the standard of education and the level of pride ordinary Russians have in their history and achievements.
I remember thinking that the average young British person you meet would have some
difficulty in conducting a conversation at the level most of the Russians I met managed to do, some in English.
Now, just let's get Mr Putin to harness all that knowledge and enthusiasm...
After world war two, the cold war prevented us from going back into isolation, but when the cold war thawed not returning to isolationism was one of the most destructive decisions the US ever made, this was greatly exacerbated by the fact that the US in like 1994 started to tear down protective measurers that preserved our once great manufacturing base. When this happened international business started relocating all manufacturing to the third world and there they enjoyed very low wages and basically no environmental or labor safety restrictions. This killed our self sufficiently (as well as our working middle class) and forever made a return to isolationism an imposable dream.What did Thomas Jefferson say about the US not needing to roam the world looking for dragons to say? How about Washington saying for us to avoid international entanglements?
Good post, Sergey.
From the US viewpoint, maintaining global hegemony at a cost of 3.5% of GDP is a lot cheaper than having to arms/space/whatever race with another superpower at 6-7% of GDP. I suspect overall US influence will decline slightly as other countries note that they have to pay heed to China and India as well.
Yes, I agree that rather China will be the main pretender to role of global power #2 next decades. Very interesting combination is possible in this context. USA could not interfere in traditional Russian sphere of interests (in Georgia for example). In return Russia could help to block Chinese external expansion.
Maybe it is out of the theme but I in my work use a lot of Taiwan made equipment and am intersting in stability there. So USA and Russia have at least one important objective in common.
...and there, Sergey, is the genuine voice of the American isolationist strain. US Foreign Policy has oscillated between engagement and isolationism since Commodore Preble's squadron was deployed to the Mediterranean in the 1800s ( cf Tripolitanian War) and continued into the Twentieth century with Wilsonian ideals being countered by periods of withdrawal and disengagement. ( in fact I wrote a 1500 word essay on this as part of an OU course very recently!)
We tend to forget that there is a large body of opinion in the US heartland that says: Why should American lives be wasted defending foreign soil ?
Right now, under the egregious Bush PÃ¨re et fils, the US are widely engaged outside their 'own' hemisphere......in the next 20 years, I have no good reason to believe that that pattern is set to continue, Neo Con dreams of the Project for the New American Century notwithstanding....
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