Glasgow North East by election

#1
Gordon 'Gollums' Brown needs good news right now — any good news — and some respite from the the constant air of doom and gloom surrounding the Prime Minister and the Labour Party may be on the way this week courtesy of Glasgow, the city where he was born 58 years ago.

Glasgow North East by election on Thursday 12th November. Old seat of Lord 'Gorbals-Mick’ Martin. Will the Neues Partie des Arbeits und Marxist-Leninists Mutt-faced Liar-bore….

(a) Retain seat with increased majority.
(b) Retain seat with smaller or hugely reduced majority.
(c) Lose seat to the SNP.
(d) Lose seat to the Limp-Dick Party.
(e) Lose seat to the Tory Boys.
(f) Lose seat to the Raving Monster Party. :p

Option (a) is a really possibility. Option (b) could also happen. Option (c) is the best choice... I'm not certain that options (d),(e) or (f) are likely...
What ever happens, this by election might be a 'bell weather' as to what might happen in 6 months or so. As it is, it will have to be reconstested again.

I take no sides on this, I neither support nor oppose any side.... but I hope they 'King lose... so I'm not all biased..no, not really....(f*king f*kwits, b*ll*x merchants...) :p :? :p
 
#2
Interesting.

Glasow North East - 7th on the Nationwide hit list of Sink Estates with an unemployment level of 27.4% of Adults out of work and on Benefits. My money would be on Labour Retaining the seat.
 

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#3
Labour's majority is massive. In 2005, they got more votes than all of the other candidates combined.

Having said that, Labour's majority in Glasgow East last year was even more massive. They polled over 60% of the votes there in the last general election then lost the seat to the SNP at the last by-election.

Given the grief Mick had over his own expenses (4 grand for his wife's taxi fares, first class flights on holiday), I think there'll be a lot of pi$$ed off Jocks champing at the bit to get to the polling stations.

I reckon it's the SNP's to lose.
 
#5
johnboyzzz said:
You have a certain MR Smeaton standing, also Tommy Sheridan before he pops in for a spell of porridge next year :)
Good point JBzzz, Tommy has always done well when he stands in Glasgow, so he will get a few votes. The appeal of Mr Smeaton will also (IMO) get a few votes, but i can't see the good people of Springburn voting in anyone who does not have the labour mark on them ( and i saw the creature who is standing on tv tonight).
 
#6
I think Labour will retain the seat but with a greatly reduced majority, those votes going over to the SNP. I get the feeling alot of people over here on the west arnt quite convinced by the SNP just yet, but with support for labour faltering and the fact that conservative have no hope in hell of ever being welcomed into Glasgow or surrounding areas, more people are exploring the SNP in a bit more detail. However with stunts like the cancellation of the airport link, its not hard to see why people arnt convinced the SNP care about the west...

As for the other candidates, Tommy Sheridan is likely to poll well but not well enough, probably 3rd behind SNP. The others are unlikely worth a mention Smeato might do well as a token vote, I hope not though. It would be a shame to see votes which could boost the SNP wasted on a cretin like John Smeaton :p
 
#8
It's local voters like this, who are brainwashed from birth that have kept Labour in power.
No looking at the issues and if there anything wrong it's Tory.
john
 
#9
Labour or SNP.

There are only two strands to political discourse in Springburn, neither is very sophisticated - there's the tribal 'ma faither voted Labour, his faither voted Labour, etc, etc', and there's the resentful whinge 'it's aw the fault of them English bastids, but'.

A plague on both their houses.

C_C
 
#10
Toxicseagull said:
Labour's majority is massive. In 2005, they got more votes than all of the other candidates combined
no they didnt.

36% of the vote, the tories got 33%, lib dem got 23%
Glasgow North East 2005 results

Speaker Michael Martin 15,153
SNP John McLaughlin 5,019
Socialist Labour Doris Kelly 4,036
Scottish Socialist Graham Campbell 1,402
Scottish Unionist Daniel Houston 1,266
BNP Scott McLean 920
Independent Joe Chambers 622
 
#12
Toxicseagull said:
Labour's majority is massive. In 2005, they got more votes than all of the other candidates combined
no they didnt.

36% of the vote, the tories got 33%, lib dem got 23%
We are talking about the Glasgow NE results, not overall -

Labour 53.3
SNP 17.7
Socialist Labour 14.2
Scottish Socialist 4.9
Scottish Unionist 4.5
BNP 3.2
Independent 2.2
 
#14
(b) and (c), frankly, are the only credible possibilities. I'm looking for something unlikely I could promise to eat if (a) occurred but Ikea wine glasses seem a bit more macho than the usual mess issue and I've never actually been a Royal Marine. And my hat has only just recovered from its annual outing so that's not a good idea, either.

(f) is statistically the next most likely. As per U_V and C_C, and despite the barely hidden bigotry, (c) seems the most hopeful outcome.

Edited to add - you can't really compare the Speaker's seat results, where the main (national) parties will not stand due to 'tradition" - with the results for a normal election. The last Scottish Parliament election figures would probably be more accurate. Although you could probably still have a blind man wearing ski mittens count the Tory votes without taking the gloves off!
 
#16
Charm_City said:
Labour or SNP.

There are only two strands to political discourse in Springburn, neither is very sophisticated - there's the tribal 'ma faither voted Labour, his faither voted Labour, etc, etc', and there's the resentful whinge 'it's aw the fault of them English bastids, but'.

A plague on both their houses.

C_C
In a country where you basically have two political options, Labour or Conservative you tend to vote for the one you feel has dicked you the least.

What you must remember about areas like Glasgow is that in the late 70's and 80's alot of us saw our fathers and grandfathers lose their jobs in the factories, ship yards, coal mines etc and instead of creating jobs they were left to go on the dole or move to areas where jobs were.
There was and still is resentment towards the conservatives, wether or not closing these failing factories was something that had to be done or not is a different argument entireley but the feeling still remains to this day. Labour always has been the logical choice for many in the area, for the most part Labour have been good to us, until now. There are people who vote labour because thats who their father voted, but Id disagree theres much of a "resentful whinge" up here, we dont care much about what others think of us.

I dont make any secret of my political leanings, a bit left of centre-left. I was brought up to think (almost literally) that Maggie Thatcher was the devil herself. Of course our political leanings are influenced by our parents, most people are but it doesnt mean they will vote for that party just because their parents have...
 
#17
colton said:
Charm_City said:
Labour or SNP.

There are only two strands to political discourse in Springburn, neither is very sophisticated - there's the tribal 'ma faither voted Labour, his faither voted Labour, etc, etc', and there's the resentful whinge 'it's aw the fault of them English bastids, but'.

A plague on both their houses.

C_C
In a country where you basically have two political options, Labour or Conservative you tend to vote for the one you feel has dicked you the least.

What you must remember about areas like Glasgow is that in the late 70's and 80's alot of us saw our fathers and grandfathers lose their jobs in the factories, ship yards, coal mines etc and instead of creating jobs they were left to go on the dole or move to areas where jobs were.
There was and still is resentment towards the conservatives, wether or not closing these failing factories was something that had to be done or not is a different argument entireley but the feeling still remains to this day. Labour always has been the logical choice for many in the area, for the most part Labour have been good to us, until now. There are people who vote labour because thats who their father voted, but Id disagree theres much of a "resentful whinge" up here, we dont care much about what others think of us.

I dont make any secret of my political leanings, a bit left of centre-left. I was brought up to think (almost literally) that Maggie Thatcher was the devil herself. Of course our political leanings are influenced by our parents, most people are but it doesnt mean they will vote for that party just because their parents have...
Colton,

A minor point first – my location is KW14, i.e. the far north of Scotland. So to me Springburn is ‘down there’ not ‘up here’.

I am obviously a ‘tcheuchter’ but have spent a fair amount of time in Glasgow over the years and have always been struck by the unthinking tribal adherence to Labour in national and local politics. And equally struck by the fact that very few seemed to ask exactly what their loyalty to Labour has ever done for them. You say that is changing – as the man on the scene I defer to you opinion.

The whinging comment was actually directed at Wee Eck Salmond and his Tartan Tw@ts – the only thing that would bring me any comfort in an independent Scotland would be the look on Slamond’s face when he realised he didn’t have Westminster as a whipping boy any more and had to take the blame himself.

C_C
 
#18
The Tory candidate - Ruth Davidson, a former BBC reporter - is ex 32 Sigs (V) .

The phrase "Cats Chance in Hell" springs to mind but fair play for at least standing - and volunteering to move into the consituency unlike the current incumbent !.

edited for Grauniad type speeeling.
 
#19
Apologies for jumping to conclusions with the anti-english thing. I guess you're further "up here" than I am :p

Im going to try and break down your post into little bits and answer each individualy, not to try and raise debate but just to give you a personal opinon from a rather average weegie who comes from a long line of traditional labour supporters. (Though never a supporter of Labour myself, I was influenced by my parents political leanings but didnt inherit them)

I am obviously a ‘tcheuchter’ but have spent a fair amount of time in Glasgow over the years and have always been struck by the unthinking tribal adherence to Labour in national and local politics.
Scotland as a whole seem to prefer socialist ideals, no where is this truer than in Glasgow. Im of the opinion that support for labour stemmed from the unions and through 18 years of tory rule, with alot of Glaswegians losing jobs or the family breadwinner losing a job, seeing workplaces close and left to crumble people felt they have no choice but to vote Labour. The "tribal adherance" I think comes into play when you consider that there are basically two options in this country, labour or tory, and people were so against tory that they voted labour everytime.

And equally struck by the fact that very few seemed to ask exactly what their loyalty to Labour has ever done for them.
I guess Glasgow and its surrounding areas have a fairly heathly proportion of unemployed, low paid, un-motivated, single parents, disabled or claiming disability etc. Things like national min wage, benefits, tax credits and the like are important things for alot of people here, thats just how it is. Obviously theres people would prefer it wasnt that way but.. its not, so they live with it. And the option of voting any other serious party to change it (ie tory) isnt there. Others are happy with the status quo and as long as they remain getting their £90 a fortnight they will continue to tick that box.

You say that is changing – as the man on the scene I defer to you opinion.
I say things are changing but at no great pace, among people of my generation there is alot of support for SNP because they arnt Labour or Tory, not because they are interested in Scottish Nationalism. Other, more mature voters tend to stick with what they know, but with increasing distain for Labour I feel that support for SNP will rise. It seems the logical choice for a population who are generally "Social Democrat" to vote for another "Social Democrat" party, but since when did logic ever come into politics. What I would like to see is SNP take over Labours "tribal adherance" and for them to drop their ideas about an independance referendum until they can prove its a good idea. That said there is also some feelings of "the SNP dont like us" around here, they have alot to prove before they can consider any of the west seats a safe one. The latest thing to upset alot of people in the glasgow area was the airport railway link which when scrapped was another load of jobs and investment earmarked for glasgow taken away, it did nothing to raise support for SNP in the west.

It will be interesting to see next year with the potential tory government what will happen in scotland. I think there might just be enough people still bitter at the Thatcher years to vote in the independane referendum without thinking what could happen if we do go down the "self determination" route. I dont think overall support Scotland-wide for the SNP is because they are a nationalist party either, I think they would do alot better if they dropped that idea and waited until they were a bit more established and then brought it in.. but hey what do I know.

As I said, this is just personal opinion and Im tired so its very sloppy but I hope I answered your points.

Yours truley,

typical lefty sprog
 
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swampmonster

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#20
saladin said:
The Tory candidate - Ruth Davidson, a former BBC reporter - is ex 32 Sigs (V) .

The phrase "Cats Chance in Hell" springs to mind but fair play for at least standing - and volunteering to move into the consituency unlike the current incumbent !.

edited for Grauniad type speeeling.

And an Ex Officer Cadet at OTW 51 Bde.....2004/2005.. :wink:

And maybe getting Groomed for another chance later on....?
 

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