Glasgow North East by election

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by uncle_vanya, Nov 9, 2009.

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  1. Gordon 'Gollums' Brown needs good news right now — any good news — and some respite from the the constant air of doom and gloom surrounding the Prime Minister and the Labour Party may be on the way this week courtesy of Glasgow, the city where he was born 58 years ago.

    Glasgow North East by election on Thursday 12th November. Old seat of Lord 'Gorbals-Mick’ Martin. Will the Neues Partie des Arbeits und Marxist-Leninists Mutt-faced Liar-bore….

    (a) Retain seat with increased majority.
    (b) Retain seat with smaller or hugely reduced majority.
    (c) Lose seat to the SNP.
    (d) Lose seat to the Limp-Dick Party.
    (e) Lose seat to the Tory Boys.
    (f) Lose seat to the Raving Monster Party. :p

    Option (a) is a really possibility. Option (b) could also happen. Option (c) is the best choice... I'm not certain that options (d),(e) or (f) are likely...
    What ever happens, this by election might be a 'bell weather' as to what might happen in 6 months or so. As it is, it will have to be reconstested again.

    I take no sides on this, I neither support nor oppose any side.... but I hope they 'King lose... so I'm not all, not really....(f*king f*kwits, b*ll*x merchants...) :p :? :p
  2. Interesting.

    Glasow North East - 7th on the Nationwide hit list of Sink Estates with an unemployment level of 27.4% of Adults out of work and on Benefits. My money would be on Labour Retaining the seat.

    Attached Files:

  3. Labour's majority is massive. In 2005, they got more votes than all of the other candidates combined.

    Having said that, Labour's majority in Glasgow East last year was even more massive. They polled over 60% of the votes there in the last general election then lost the seat to the SNP at the last by-election.

    Given the grief Mick had over his own expenses (4 grand for his wife's taxi fares, first class flights on holiday), I think there'll be a lot of pi$$ed off Jocks champing at the bit to get to the polling stations.

    I reckon it's the SNP's to lose.
  4. You have a certain MR Smeaton standing, also Tommy Sheridan before he pops in for a spell of porridge next year :)
  5. Good point JBzzz, Tommy has always done well when he stands in Glasgow, so he will get a few votes. The appeal of Mr Smeaton will also (IMO) get a few votes, but i can't see the good people of Springburn voting in anyone who does not have the labour mark on them ( and i saw the creature who is standing on tv tonight).
  6. I think Labour will retain the seat but with a greatly reduced majority, those votes going over to the SNP. I get the feeling alot of people over here on the west arnt quite convinced by the SNP just yet, but with support for labour faltering and the fact that conservative have no hope in hell of ever being welcomed into Glasgow or surrounding areas, more people are exploring the SNP in a bit more detail. However with stunts like the cancellation of the airport link, its not hard to see why people arnt convinced the SNP care about the west...

    As for the other candidates, Tommy Sheridan is likely to poll well but not well enough, probably 3rd behind SNP. The others are unlikely worth a mention Smeato might do well as a token vote, I hope not though. It would be a shame to see votes which could boost the SNP wasted on a cretin like John Smeaton :p
  7. no they didnt.

    36% of the vote, the tories got 33%, lib dem got 23%
  8. It's local voters like this, who are brainwashed from birth that have kept Labour in power.
    No looking at the issues and if there anything wrong it's Tory.
  9. Labour or SNP.

    There are only two strands to political discourse in Springburn, neither is very sophisticated - there's the tribal 'ma faither voted Labour, his faither voted Labour, etc, etc', and there's the resentful whinge 'it's aw the fault of them English bastids, but'.

    A plague on both their houses.

  10. Glasgow North East 2005 results

    Speaker Michael Martin 15,153
    SNP John McLaughlin 5,019
    Socialist Labour Doris Kelly 4,036
    Scottish Socialist Graham Campbell 1,402
    Scottish Unionist Daniel Houston 1,266
    BNP Scott McLean 920
    Independent Joe Chambers 622
  11. sorry i thought he meant nationally due to this following sentence :)

  12. We are talking about the Glasgow NE results, not overall -

    Labour 53.3
    SNP 17.7
    Socialist Labour 14.2
    Scottish Socialist 4.9
    Scottish Unionist 4.5
    BNP 3.2
    Independent 2.2
  13. see above
  14. (b) and (c), frankly, are the only credible possibilities. I'm looking for something unlikely I could promise to eat if (a) occurred but Ikea wine glasses seem a bit more macho than the usual mess issue and I've never actually been a Royal Marine. And my hat has only just recovered from its annual outing so that's not a good idea, either.

    (f) is statistically the next most likely. As per U_V and C_C, and despite the barely hidden bigotry, (c) seems the most hopeful outcome.

    Edited to add - you can't really compare the Speaker's seat results, where the main (national) parties will not stand due to 'tradition" - with the results for a normal election. The last Scottish Parliament election figures would probably be more accurate. Although you could probably still have a blind man wearing ski mittens count the Tory votes without taking the gloves off!
  15. Excellent post Idrach, couldn't better it if I was legless.