German defence woes (latest from The Times)

[RSupwood]

Have you been to Germany in the last 25 years? There are so many wind turbines I am sometimes surprised it doesn't take off.

I haven't been back since Ex Lionheart (86?)

 

[harrythebastard]

I haven't been back since Ex Lionheart (86?)

1984, what a hoot.
Check out You Tube, there is loads on there depending on where you were deployed to.
All before the German Green Party got serious and we could all properly deploy into the field without drip trays under the engines and portaloos in the woods.
Worst of all the Feldjager had real weapons and blanks to go with them, not broom handles as today.
We also had real weapons but no blanks to go with them.
Or BFAs.
For us the war was soon over..........................

 

[par avion]

10 years and then with marked reluctance. It was considered a pragmatic option given allied post war draw downs

And soon after the DDR was pointing former German soldiers towards the west. One of the highest ranking members of the DDR government, Willi Stoph, despite joining the Communist party at 17 joined the Wehrmacht at the age of 21 and served from 1935-37 and again from 1940 to 1945 serving as an Unteroffizer in the Artillery on the Russian Front.

As the first Defence Minister of the DDR (1956 to 1960), he was awarded the rank of Armeegeneral.

But Stoph was not what he seemed: for after the GDR caved in, in late 1989, it emerged that he had plotted during the preceding 10 years or so with Erich Mielke, head of the Stasi security police, to overthrow Honecker and take over the GDR. It also emerged that he had an appetite for luxurious living, and even that he had been for a time a loyal Nazi.



It was Honecker who revived the idea of Stoph's possible Nazism. In 1945, he claimed in 1989, Stoph, who had won the Iron Cross in the Wehrmacht, had written for his regiment's newspaper that one of his greatest experiences had been participation in a military parade for Hitler's birthday.

Willi Stoph.

 

[terminal]

@terminal , they’ve done it again The EU consists of Italy and Germany, so deduct 169,830 from EU Total or deduct Germany and Italy. Always bloody selective with their stats

If you look more closely at the "EU" and "World" totals in the table you will see that they are not part of the ranking. They are additional reference points, but there is no double counting there.

 

[terminal]

Many things you say are absolutely right.
There will also be no simple solution to the problem. The current situation is that Germany gets around 40% of its gas via the existing Transgas and Nord Stream pipelines.
To add Nord Stream 2 on top of that and make Germany even more dependent on Russian gas supplies is sheer madness.

See the following news story.
Why the world worries about Russia's Nord Stream pipeline

The main purpose of Nord Stream 2 is to bypass Ukraine. Ukraine and Poland collect transit fees on Russian gas that passes through their territory.

The Baltic pipe has also been opposed by Ukraine, Poland and Slovakia -- countries between Russia and Germany that collect transit fees on gas flowing through their territories. Those concerns were partially alleviated after Gazprom reached a deal to continue gas transits via Ukraine through at least 2024.

Under the existing deal that runs until 2024, Ukraine will get $7 billion. This is a huge amount of money to Ukraine, and they would be be in a difficult financial position without it. That $7 billion comes from German and other EU gas consumers.
Russia, Ukraine sign gas transit deal ahead of deadline

Here's another article which mentions the importance of Russian gas transit fees to Ukraine and how Nord Stream 2 will pull the rug out from under Ukraine's ability to collect tolls on gas bound for the EU.
Russia, Ukraine Reach Five-Year Gas-Transit Deal

But as Russia has moved closer to completing a second underwater gas pipeline project to feed Germany, known as Nord Stream 2, Ukraine's role as a vital gas-transit country for Europe has been imperiled.

Russia has 10 percent left to complete the 2,460-kilometer pipeline project, which would in effect dispose of Ukraine's transmission network.

And another, again noting that Russia wants to re-route gas exports around Ukraine and that this is the main reason for Nord Stream 2 (along with new gas pipelines under the Black Sea to Turkey and the Balkans which also bypass Ukraine).
Implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal for alternative pipeline routes and the Ukrainian and European markets

In the early 1990s, following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the emergence of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus as independent states, over 90% of Russian gas exports to Europe were delivered via Ukraine. This was a legacy of gas production in western Ukraine providing the source of early Soviet exports to Europe, and that pipeline infrastructure continued to serve as the conduit for Soviet exports even after the majority of Soviet gas production had shifted to north-western Siberia. In the post-Soviet period, although Ukraine remained the single largest export route, Gazprom pursued several projects to reduce its dependence on Ukrainian transit, including the Yamal-Europe pipeline (to Germany via Belarus and Poland), the Blue Stream pipeline (direct from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea), and, of course, Nord Stream (direct from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea).
(...)
In this way, the use of Nord Stream 2 and EUGAL at their full capacities could displace much of the Ukrainian gas transit that reaches the European market via Uzhgorod/Velké Kapušany from mid-2021 March2020: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal for alternative pipeline routes and the Ukrainian and European marketat the earliest and the end of 2021 at the latest. Compared to the 45 bcma exit capacity of EUGAL on the German-Czech border, gas flows from Ukraine into Slovakia at Uzhgorod/Velké Kapušany ranged from 48 to 56 bcma in 2017-2019.

Especially since Russia has already taken the gas weapon out of the holster this winter. While the NS2 discussion reached new heights, significantly less gas was delivered to the storage facilities than in previous years. The result was that German gas storage was only 41% full, as opposed to the usual >80%.

Back in the first article again, cold weather in Asia caused LNG cargoes to be re-routed from Europe to the Far East. Japan and South Korea simply outbid the EU for LNG. This in turn caused gas shortages in Europe. This will happen every time there is a supply or demand problem if the EU become completely dependent upon LNG for imports.

Freezing temperatures in Asia at the start of 2021 pulled cargoes to the higher-priced markets from Japan to South Korea, leaving Europe largely short of LNG.

In my view, the only way to guarantee security of supply is diversification.

If that means building one or more LNG terminals, go ahead. LNG is a bit more expensive, but the fact that artificially high energy prices do not bother the government and a good part of the population in Germany is nothing new.
So in addition to the seven options you mentioned, there is an eighth: Buy LNG from other suppliers such as the US, Algeria, the Gulf region or Nigeria, and don't put all your eggs in one basket. Especially if you are dealing with a rather aggressive country that tries to revise the events of the last 30 years with war.

I have no problems with Germany diversifying its sources of gas. The German government are for example backing the financing of an LNG project in Canada to export gas to Germany (for Uniper). However, there are two problems with this.

One is that the German government are facing a lot of environmental opposition within Germany to LNG imports. Part of this is due to climate change activists who don't want any gas imports. Part of it is due to anti-fracking activists (who overlap a lot with the climate change activists) who don't like the idea that any significant new supplies of gas outside of the big 4 (Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan) will be produced by fracking.

Both of these groups think they can torpedo any German LNG import projects, just as they have with ones in France and Poland.

Going back to a major point in my previous post however, in order for EU Europe to consume large amounts of gas, supplies must be secured from major resources. Dutch and North Sea fields are running out. Looking abroad, the major global resources are in Russia, Iran, Qatar, and Turkmenistan, in that order. EU Europe needs a resource that will last for decades and buying a little bit here and a little bit there from minor producers isn't going to give you want you want.

Putting all your eggs in the Qatar basket isn't a viable answer either, unless you are planning on stationing an army there to protect it and build a navy to guard the ships that bring it to Germany.

 

[par avion]

One is that the German government are facing a lot of environmental opposition within Germany to LNG imports. Part of this is due to climate change activists who don't want any gas imports. Part of it is due to anti-fracking activists (who overlap a lot with the climate change activists) who don't like the idea that any significant new supplies of gas outside of the big 4 (Russia, Iran, Qatar, Turkmenistan) will be produced by fracking.

I wonder if the Germans will start to change their minds when they start to freeze their balls off like the people of Texas are doing at the moment.

 

[terminal]

I wonder if the Germans will start to change their minds when they start to freeze their balls off like the people of Texas are doing at the moment.

I can't answer that one, as I still can't fathom why the Germans are shutting down their nuclear power plants.

 

[ThunderBox]

I can't answer that one, as I still can't fathom why the Germans are shutting down their nuclear power plants.

Didnt the perfect storm hit them when the sun stopped shining and the wind stopped blowing they had to reopen a mothballed gas or coal plant, will try and find a link

Edit added link:

Germany forced to rely on non-renewable energy after cold snap froze renewables | Sky News Australia

Sky News host Cory Bernardi says Germany “should be thankful” for non-renewable energy after forced reliance on surrounding countries’ power after a cold snap froze solar panels and wind turbines. “These monuments to green madness need to draw current from the remains of the fossil fuel power...

www.skynews.com.au

I think perhaps the reopening of old plants was misinformation, I didnt watch this but the caption says relied on their neighbours.

It was because the wind turbines froze and I believe the wind turbines rely on their own solar to de-ice them which wasn’t working well in the weather.

 

[Lindermyer]

I can't answer that one, as I still can't fathom why the Germans are shutting down their nuclear power plants.

Fukashima , Knee Jerk reaction , Green Party

Germany has a strong green fringe - partly because they were faced with a significant environmental mess in 1991 in the East.

Not that Socialists acknowledge this - according to them all environmental disasters are caused by capitalism - their literature of worst man made disasters whilst making a big deal about Fukashima completely fails to mention Chernobyl or the rusting away soviet nuclear fleet of ice breakers/ subs etc.

 

[LeoRoverman]

ve

And soon after the DDR was pointing former German soldiers towards the west. One of the highest ranking members of the DDR government, Willi Stoph, despite joining the Communist party at 17 joined the Wehrmacht at the age of 21 and served from 1935-37 and again from 1940 to 1945 serving as an Unteroffizer in the Artillery on the Russian Front.

As the first Defence Minister of the DDR (1956 to 1960), he was awarded the rank of Armeegeneral.

But Stoph was not what he seemed: for after the GDR caved in, in late 1989, it emerged that he had plotted during the preceding 10 years or so with Erich Mielke, head of the Stasi security police, to overthrow Honecker and take over the GDR. It also emerged that he had an appetite for luxurious living, and even that he had been for a time a loyal Nazi.



It was Honecker who revived the idea of Stoph's possible Nazism. In 1945, he claimed in 1989, Stoph, who had won the Iron Cross in the Wehrmacht, had written for his regiment's newspaper that one of his greatest experiences had been participation in a military parade for Hitler's birthday.

Willi Stoph.

Yet to me, why would that be unusual? When you were called up or joined the Military it was not essential to be a member of the NS Party and communists certainly served in the military. It didn't imply one didn't do what was lawfully required. Certainly in the lower grades it didn't matter- the distinction is only made postwar after the NS had been "cleansed" and the communists had become the enemy. Plus it's factional, not all communists were Stalinists. Think of how many factions the Labour party have who consider themselves at loggerheads with class traitors.
Now think about what Honeker has written.
So Stoph won the Iron cross, at least a million did do. The iron cross was won when a certain combat feats had been established. Perhaps the higher Orden were Politicial critical but an EK 1 or 2 No.
It all sounds like sour grapes from Honecker having to discredit a suspect. Lastly from a squaddies point of view if your regiment is picked for something like a Jubilee march past on Sovs Birthday, it's a chance to shine and get noticed. Why wouldn't he be proud to be picked for that?
It was essential that they had leadership in the Bundeswehr that had some war time experience in a force that was allegedly that of an "Independent" state, which everyone in the know knew was a sham and that was rammed home in the reunification talks in 1989/1990. West and East Germany were as independent as they were allowed to be

 

[LeoRoverman]

If you look more closely at the "EU" and "World" totals in the table you will see that they are not part of the ranking. They are additional reference points, but there is no double counting there.

I'm sorry I beg to differ, I have noted no disambiguation in the tables shown and in the top example the figures were from 2010/11 estimates, when we were in the EU. The EU does not import, the MS do, thus the EU figure distorts overall demand.
Secondly in the following table of exports we are shown at No 47, the EU is not shown as an exporter. What the second table shows 2014 estimates and does not clarify is how much of home production comes in house and by how much does it off set the Import figures, if at all. In 2014 we were members of the EU.

 

[fantassin]

So finally HK 416A8 it is for the BW

HK416 A8 wird System Sturmgewehr Bundeswehr – BMVg will Auftrag an Heckler & Koch vergeben

Das Bundesministerium der Verteidigung will den zunächst siegreichen Bieter Haenel vom Verfahren zur Vergabe eines neuen Sturmgewehres ausschließen und den Zuschlag dem Konkurrenten Heckler & Koch erteilen.

soldat-und-technik.de

 

[terminal]

So finally HK 416A8 it is for the BW

HK416 A8 wird System Sturmgewehr Bundeswehr – BMVg will Auftrag an Heckler & Koch vergeben

Das Bundesministerium der Verteidigung will den zunächst siegreichen Bieter Haenel vom Verfahren zur Vergabe eines neuen Sturmgewehres ausschließen und den Zuschlag dem Konkurrenten Heckler & Koch erteilen.

soldat-und-technik.de

Apparently the contract was taken from Haenel due to patent issues. Haenel think they can get the patent claims tossed eventually, but it's a European patent so the German court has to just accept it for now.

The decision is based on patent infringements by Haenel. According to Tauber, after it was determined that one of the bidders may have infringed the patents of another bidder, the procedure for procuring a new assault rifle was reverted to the status of the bid evaluation. This was followed by a patent law assessment by an external patent law firm.

"As a result, according to the assessment of the experts, there are patent infringements with regard to the over-the-beach capability of the weapon locking system and with regard to the magazine," said the press release. The bidder - Haenel - filed a nullity action with the Federal Patent Court against one of the patents, which the commissioned patent attorney believed had a chance of success.

"But since it is a European patent and the Federal Patent Court could only determine the patent's invalidity for Germany, the patent would continue to apply in the other European countries until it is declared null and void there," writes the State Secretary.

The article also says that should Haenel take things through the court to the end, the whole thing could be dragged out for years to come. Here's a Google Translate of that point.

The only question is when the contract can be signed. Should Haenel exhaust the legal action, this would delay the proceedings considerably - possibly by years.

The Germans apparently intend to buy 118,718 new rifles in two barrel lengths at a rate of 20,000 per year.

Originally, it was planned to begin field testing for the individual variants (short and long barrel) of the new assault rifle around six months after the contract was signed. The tests should then be completed after about a year. Almost one and a half to two years after the contract was signed, the first of the 118,718 assault rifles ordered should then come into the force. The total time for the changeover of the weapons was supposed to take more than half a decade, as the invitation to tender provided for an annual delivery volume of up to 20,000 rifles.

And of course that leaves aside the issue that nobody has been able to really provide a convincing case for anything being wrong with the G36. If the intention was to find an excuse to change suppliers to Haenel, then the whole thing may have just backfired with Haenel being excluded from bidding due to legal manoeuvring and H&K getting the contract by default.

 

[fantassin]

The KSK's soul searching goes on...now in the medical domain....

KSK elite unit only partially operational - soldiers suffer from mental disorders

According to a report by the news magazine FOCUS, the special forces command of the Bundeswehr is currently only partially operational due to numerous reports of illness.
80 of the 280 commandos trained in the fight against terrorism are in long-term psychiatric and psychological therapy because of mental disorders.

This is reported by the news magazine FOCUS. Some of the elite fighters are cared for in the Bundeswehr hospital in Ulm, others take outpatient help.

A treating specialist in psychiatry told the Berlin news magazine that a large number of the sick soldiers suffered from the mental disorder “moral injury”.

This technical term, which originates from Anglo-Saxon military medicine, describes, among other things, the loss of moral identity, caused by constant accusations from the public and the withdrawal of confidence from military superiors.

The trigger was investigations against individual KSK soldiers


The trigger for the nervous crisis at the KSK is apparently investigations into individual soldiers who had been noticed because of right-wing extremist activities. In public, however, the entire elite association is suspected of being right-wing extremists, said the specialist.

Eliteeinheit KSK nur bedingt einsatzbereit - Soldaten leiden an psychischen Störungen

 

[Condottiere]

The KSK's soul searching goes on...now in the medical domain....

KSK elite unit only partially operational - soldiers suffer from mental disorders

According to a report by the news magazine FOCUS, the special forces command of the Bundeswehr is currently only partially operational due to numerous reports of illness.
80 of the 280 commandos trained in the fight against terrorism are in long-term psychiatric and psychological therapy because of mental disorders.

This is reported by the news magazine FOCUS. Some of the elite fighters are cared for in the Bundeswehr hospital in Ulm, others take outpatient help.

A treating specialist in psychiatry told the Berlin news magazine that a large number of the sick soldiers suffered from the mental disorder “moral injury”.

This technical term, which originates from Anglo-Saxon military medicine, describes, among other things, the loss of moral identity, caused by constant accusations from the public and the withdrawal of confidence from military superiors.

The trigger was investigations against individual KSK soldiers


The trigger for the nervous crisis at the KSK is apparently investigations into individual soldiers who had been noticed because of right-wing extremist activities. In public, however, the entire elite association is suspected of being right-wing extremists, said the specialist.

Eliteeinheit KSK nur bedingt einsatzbereit - Soldaten leiden an psychischen Störungen

KSK
“Krankensoldatenkommando” ??

 

[fantassin]

Germany is ordering 5 P-8 MPAs.

This very likely signs the death of the MAWS program between France and Germany.

Excellent news as far as I am concerned, it's time the charade of French-German cooperation comes to an end, there is absolutely nothing solid in it.

Germany – P-8A Aircraft and Associated Support | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

 

[Lindermyer]

Germany is ordering 5 P-8 MPAs.

This very likely signs the death of the MAWS program between France and Germany.

Excellent news as far as I am concerned, it's time the charade of French-German cooperation comes to an end, there is absolutely nothing solid in it.

Germany – P-8A Aircraft and Associated Support | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

Which really leaves france going P8 or P1 as well

I do not think the numbers would support a European airframe derived ** solo effort for high end ASW nor do I think C295 / ATR derived platforms would offer what France needs


**Also having bailed on MAWS it would I suspect stick in Frances craw that Germany (courtesy of Airbus Deutschland) would gain financialy on the project without contributing to development or purchasing the end result

 

[fantassin]

Which really leaves france going P8 or P1 as well

I do not think the numbers would support a European airframe derived ** solo effort for high end ASW nor do I think C295 / ATR derived platforms would offer what France needs


**Also having bailed on MAWS it would I suspect stick in Frances craw that Germany (courtesy of Airbus Deutschland) would gain financialy on the project without contributing to development or purchasing the end result

The Marine Nationale is not in favor of big heavy turbofans at low altitude. I cannot see France buying from Boeing; it would much rather have plenty Casa 295s than 6 P-8s or something stupid to cover both the SLBM mission, the overseas tasks and the classic ASW work.

The Marine Nationale much prefers the Swiss army knife approach of an MPA which can do other stuff above ground and which doesn't cost 1/3rd of the national defense budget a copy. Losing a P-8 is a national tragedy; losing an ATL 2 can be lived with, there is still 18 of them and they are now completely revamped and modernized with plenty of fire left in them, until at least 2035.

Germany, on the other hand, had to replace its clapped-out P-3C by 2025 latest, so the French and German agendas were bound to diverge at some point. The sooner, the better.

 

[Krautman]

Germany is ordering 5 P-8 MPAs.

This very likely signs the death of the MAWS program between France and Germany.

Excellent news as far as I am concerned, it's time the charade of French-German cooperation comes to an end, there is absolutely nothing solid in it.

Germany – P-8A Aircraft and Associated Support | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

I would never have thought it, but for once I agree with you.

No more German money for French hubris. We even get functioning American planes and not French hangar queens - if it goes like this with the other "joint" projects, it will be really funny.
If this also happens with the EU nonsense, the hangover at Club Med and its undisputed leader will be huge.

 

[terminal]

Germany is ordering 5 P-8 MPAs.

This very likely signs the death of the MAWS program between France and Germany.

Excellent news as far as I am concerned, it's time the charade of French-German cooperation comes to an end, there is absolutely nothing solid in it.

Germany – P-8A Aircraft and Associated Support | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

It also raises questions about German participation in the MMMAC (Multi Mission Maritime Aircraft Capabilities) program. MMMAC is supposed to develop the requirements for two types of aircraft. One is to be a high end MMMA for Canada, France, and Germany, and the other is something simpler and cheaper for Poland, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Greece. The MAWS program was apparently intended to run in parallel with that for France and Germany to jointly develop an actual aircraft based on those requirements.

Canada and Poland join six NATO Allies in developing next-generation maritime multi mission aircraft

If the Germans are going to simply buy the P8, I'm not sure what the point of having their input on the requirements is. If they aren't committed to buying anything that results from it then their input would likely be seen as counter-productive.

Canadian Multi-Mission Aircraft
Canada has a project to replace the CP-140 Aurora. Options analysis was supposed to start this year (I think that MMMAC was to provide input), with delivery to start in the early 2030s. The Auroras have just gone through a major upgrade which included replacement of much of their sensor kit, so they're fairly up to date from a technology perspective. Canada wasn't interested in buying MAWS, just I suspect in finding a new airframe to put our own ASW kit into.

I don't know where MMMAC will be going at this point. It could boil down into a new France-Canada project to develop common specifications for an aircraft to put their respective national ASW kit into.

I think that Poland, Italy, Spain, Turkey and Greece are going to want something different, and could either spin off on their own, or just buy one of the commercially developed MPA options already on the market.