Genuine Question--What is the Forecast for the Relative Value of the GBP?

MrBane

LE
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Many thanks. Keeping the sale proceeds over there in an investment is certainly something we are considering. What funds can you recommend?
I never recommend as I don't want to be thought of it if turns sour. For anything like that, either do your own research or go to a broker for guidance and advice.

If you've got a bit of flexible money AIM is a good and 'fun' place to realise some short term gains, but it involves a fair bit of research, a lot of monitoring and of course the risk that, as it's AIM, the company turns out to be criminals and they **** off with the shareholder money. I've got stakes in a few firms there and whilst they've done well overall, the ride has been a rollercoaster of ups and downs.

There's nothing like checking your ticker to see the shareprice has increased by 700% overnight on the back of the outcome of a site evaluation for oil.
There's also nothing like seeing another one drop 75% below what you bought in for!

If you do decide to look at that, I can recommend IWeb Share Dealing
for your trading account. Prices are very reasonable.

Then use Share Prices, Stock Quotes, Charts, Trade History, Share Chat, Financial News - London South East for all your information and RNS's. They've also got an excellent Level 1 system that gives you by the second updates on trading.

To be honest, for anyone looking at shares now, with all these 'game' style systems where you can trade with pretend money, I'd recommend using that as your training tool. Identify some shares, research them, run your own projections, etc, and then stick some money on and give it a year to get the hang of following everything, then put some real money in. Start small until your confidence builds. Eventually you'll be where I'm at, which is still pretty basic but I know that if a share I'm in just now dips below a certain price, I'm buying more based on the last seven years of trading in it.

Good luck!

(or, keep your property and keep renting as the rental market is booming in this country and demand will only continue to outstrip supply)
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
(or, keep your property and keep renting as the rental market is booming in this country and demand will only continue to outstrip supply)
Essentially a safe option two things to consider. Is it a possible inheritance for junior or do you need the money for something more immediate. Answer that and consider the options
 
Traditionally, the UK used to invest in two areas, commodities (gold etc) and the stock market. With people moving money from one to another depending on the performance of the stock market. However about 25 years ago (mainly due to in influx of TV programmes concentrating on property development) and fuelled by a large drop in the stock market people moved their money in to property, causing a huge increase in house prices over the next 10 years. This also caused the influx of the "Toxic Mortgages" with banks over lending and selling on the unrecoverable debts to other financial institutions. In 2007 in all came crashing down but houses still had an over inflated value (in relation to earnings) even though a large number of people ended up in negative equity.
House prices are still artificially high and may stagnate or drop over the next year or so, but will start to rise again in the future.
The biggest problem with currency is that it is based upon speculation, perception and most importantly greed. traders can make just as much money by selling short than long. As a result they will go out of their way to ensure the pound drops to make money. As fear has a greater influence that optimism it is easier to get the pound to drop than to rise (short term).

Anyone who is able to successfully predict the performance of the pound (to the extent to make money) will not be found on this website, but on their private island in the Bahamas!
 

Chef

LE
Id predict the GBP to be on a par with the Matabele Gumbo Bead shortly. I think I would sit on the property for a few years if You can.Things will settle down eventually.
A good post and the first time I've heard the pound compared to the MGB in years. Weekending Radio 4 I think.
 
Well done for dropping that 'e' that jumpinjarhead added to the road name.

Typical money grabbing landlord, adding 'extras' to the property description to boost the value :)
OP edited to correct misspelling--I also had too many "d"s in ghe s
Essentially a safe option two things to consider. Is it a possible inheritance for junior or do you need the money for something more immediate. Answer that and consider the options
Excellent question. We really don't need the money yet but are trying to simplify things looking toward the time our children will have to deal with it all.
 
Many thanks. Keeping the sale proceeds over there in an investment is certainly something we are considering. What funds can you recommend?
The thought that I immediately had with respect to your original question is implicitly touched on above, which is that sale of the property and repatriation of the funds are two different things. If you are concerned about currency fluctuations, then a liquid investment can be moved quickly to take advantage of a short term jump in exchange rates while a property may take months to sell, at which point the exchange rate may have changed again.

However, before you do anything then I would suggest talking to a financial advisor in the US about the tax implications of whatever you plan on doing, Recent changes in US tax laws have implications for Americans with overseas investments and this may have a bigger influence on your decision than exchange rate considerations.

As to what effect Brexit will have, nobody really knows. Lots of people think they know, and some people will be lucky with their guesses, but if anyone really knew then the price would already be built into the current exchange rates.

As someone else has pointed out, the most likely future exchange rate will be somewhere in between the most pessimistic and the most optimistic predictions. Just where in that range it will fall is anyone's guess. To add to this, the US dollar could also go up or down, so that adds another dimension to the equation for you.
 
Traditionally, the UK used to invest in two areas, commodities (gold etc) and the stock market. With people moving money from one to another depending on the performance of the stock market. However about 25 years ago (mainly due to in influx of TV programmes concentrating on property development) and fuelled by a large drop in the stock market people moved their money in to property, causing a huge increase in house prices over the next 10 years. This also caused the influx of the "Toxic Mortgages" with banks over lending and selling on the unrecoverable debts to other financial institutions. In 2007 in all came crashing down but houses still had an over inflated value (in relation to earnings) even though a large number of people ended up in negative equity.
House prices are still artificially high and may stagnate or drop over the next year or so, but will start to rise again in the future.
The biggest problem with currency is that it is based upon speculation, perception and most importantly greed. traders can make just as much money by selling short than long. As a result they will go out of their way to ensure the pound drops to make money. As fear has a greater influence that optimism it is easier to get the pound to drop than to rise (short term).

Anyone who is able to successfully predict the performance of the pound (to the extent to make money) will not be found on this website, but on their private island in the Bahamas!
Do you have to sell?
See better equipped chaps below/above.
 
I’ve previously (Brexit vote time) protected my dollar-GBP salary by buying a years worth of GBP at a fixed exchange rate (10% deposit)

I presume if you know you are going to receive a specific figure at some point it may be possible to secure a “known”/predictable rate before it all goes down the shitter.

Boris Johnson is currently paying my mortgage every month with the bonk quid rates, bad for UKPLC and leaves this dirty lefty feeling a twinge of hypocritical guilt
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
OP edited to correct misspelling--I also had too many "d"s in ghe s

Excellent question. We really don't need the money yet but are trying to simplify things looking toward the time our children will have to deal with it all.
My late fil's estate was robbed by a greedy stepson who typically didnt need the money. My one hope is that the scumbag dies before I lose patience and pay him a visit!
 
I’ve previously (Brexit vote time) protected my dollar-GBP salary by buying a years worth of GBP at a fixed exchange rate (10% deposit)

I presume if you know you are going to receive a specific figure at some point it may be possible to secure a “known”/predictable rate before it all goes down the shitter.

Boris Johnson is currently paying my mortgage every month with the bonk quid rates, bad for UKPLC and leaves this dirty lefty feeling a twinge of hypocritical guilt
Many thanks--a very good tip. Much appreciated.
 
Do you have to sell?
See better equipped chaps below/above.
We do not have to sell currently and the very helpful information in this thread will be put to good use as we figure out how we go forward.
 
Well it's going to be both good and bad for me. I get most of my income currently from the U.S., so the low GBP is good that way as I get more now, but because I might have to move, I would rather have it strong in the longer term.
 
We do not have to sell currently and the very helpful information in this thread will be put to good use as we figure out how we go forward.
I am looking for a change of scene, and would not mind a move to Bath.
I could do up a room or three for no or little cost.
Competent in most things.
All you would have to pay for is materials and stuff.
 
I am looking for a change of scene, and would not mind a move to Bath.
I could do up a room or three for no or little cost.
Competent in most things.
All you would have to pay for is materials and stuff.
@MrBane walt
 
I remember it. Great comedic actor.
 
I am looking for a change of scene, and would not mind a move to Bath.
I could do up a room or three for no or little cost.
Competent in most things.
All you would have to pay for is materials and stuff.
We already have a contractor for a refit if we keep it but if serious for a let, PM me. Cheers.
 
Does anyone have a reliable crystal ball as to what things may look like in this regard going forward as we may be better advised to wait to sell?
If you put any faith in experts, then Dr Patricia ( Cannot remember surname ) Professor of economics is pretty neutral. She likens the £ to the Nike Swoosh.

Currently on the downward stroke due to Brexit but will hit the uptick as soon as Brexit is sorted ( either in or out ).

As far as property is concerned,, if there is no compelling reason to sell, hold.
 
If you put any faith in experts, then Dr Patricia ( Cannot remember surname ) Professor of economics is pretty neutral. She likens the £ to the Nike Swoosh.

Currently on the downward stroke due to Brexit but will hit the uptick as soon as Brexit is sorted ( either in or out ).

As far as property is concerned,, if there is no compelling reason to sell, hold.
Many thanks for that!
 

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