Genuine Question--What is the Forecast for the Relative Value of the GBP?

SWMBO and I own a flat in a Grade 2 historic building on the Lansdown Road in Bath near the Crescent. We are contemplating selling it but are im a bit of a quandary. The flat has increased in value since we bought it and we would realize some profit were we to sell today. However, once the exchange rate to dollars is applied, we would have a loss on the sale due to the rather significant change in the exchange rate between the time we purchased it and now.

Does anyone have a reliable crystal ball as to what things may look like in this regard going forward as we may be better advised to wait to sell?

Many thanks in advance.

ETA--A (self-serving to some ARRSERs? ;-)) correction of street name spelling. Apologies.
 
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Are you an absent landlord, about to sell up, with a standing tenant, who might-will be evicted so as to hand over the property to a new owner tenant free?, if so, I hope you get hammered by the crap exchange rate. Foriegn property owners are the Bain of working familys who need a roof over their heads. If the property is empty, then its more of a sin, when so many people need affordable accommodation. Making money out of desperate need is disgusting. May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your boxers.

If all of the above does not apply to you, may your tribe increase and prosper.
 
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Hard one to call. BoJo blustering on, Not going to pony up to EU, So we will probably be taken to court over it like some third world banana republic. Congress will block any meaningful deal over the Irish border thing. Id predict the GBP to be on a par with the Matabele Gumbo Bead shortley. I think I would sit on the property for a few years if You can.Things will settle down eventually.
 

Guns

ADC
Moderator
Book Reviewer
Most serious forecasts have Sterling tanking. The problem asking the question on here is Leavers will tell you the Unicorns will save them and the future will be bright after the shackles of the EU are thrown off. The Remainers will tell you darkness will defend and the UK will be a wasteland.

The truth is in between. Most projections say the currency will fluctuate but mostly between current levels and dipping to a one on one level. It certainly will not go up considerably. Give it two years to shakeout after Brexit and it might level out.

Your best hope is Brexit is cancelled and a massive spike for a short period afterwards.
 
I was looking at this the other day. The analysis I read had the pound trending toward parity with the dollar in about 5 years' time. However, I can't find that now. I did find this however, which shows quite the reverse. All except Barclays think the pound will increase against the dollar. Barclays has it going the other way.

Personally, I think the implementation of Brexit will have a short-term effect, probably in the dollar's favor, and then there will be a period of stability in the $1.15-$1.30 range for a couple years. What happens after that will depend on how the trade agreements etc work out in practice.

But if the banks can't agree, then my layman's view is probably no good either :)


Edited to add, here you go, here's the thing I found previously. They have it at 1.049 in 2023.

 
Are you an absent landlord, about to sell up, with a standing tenant, who might-will be evicted so as to hand over the property to a new owner tenant free?, if so, I hope you get hammered by the crap exchange rate. Foriegn property owners are the Bain of working familys who need a roof over their heads. If the property is empty, then its more of a sin, when so many people need affordable accommodation. Making money out of desperate need is disgusting. May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your boxers.

If all of the above does not apply you, may your tribe increase and prosper.
A Grade 2 historic building on the Landsdown Road in Bath near the Crescent is unlikely to be the residence of a working family who need a roof over their head.
 
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Most serious forecasts have Sterling tanking. The problem asking the question on here is Leavers will tell you the Unicorns will save them and the future will be bright after the shackles of the EU are thrown off. The Remainers will tell you darkness will defend and the UK will be a wasteland.

The truth is in between. Most projections say the currency will fluctuate but mostly between current levels and dipping to a one on one level. It certainly will not go up considerably. Give it two years to shakeout after Brexit and it might level out.

Your best hope is Brexit is cancelled and a massive spike for a short period afterwards.
Many thanks.
 
I was looking at this the other day. The analysis I read had the pound trending toward parity with the dollar in about 5 years' time. However, I can't find that now. I did find this however, which shows quite the reverse. All except Barclays think the pound will increase against the dollar. Barclays has it going the other way.

Personally, I think the implementation of Brexit will have a short-term effect, probably in the dollar's favor, and then there will be a period of stability in the $1.15-$1.30 range for a couple years. What happens after that will depend on how the trade agreements etc work out in practice.

But if the banks can't agree, then my layman's view is probably no good either :)


Edited to add, here you go, here's the thing I found previously. They have it at 1.049 in 2023.

Many thanks.
 
Are you an absent landlord, about to sell up, with a standing tenant, who might-will be evicted so as to hand over the property to a new owner tenant free?, if so, I hope you get hammered by the crap exchange rate. Foriegn property owners are the Bain of working familys who need a roof over their heads. If the property is empty, then its more of a sin, when so many people need affordable accommodation. Making money out of desperate need is disgusting. May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your boxers.

If all of the above does not apply you, may your tribe increase and prosper.
My dear fellow:
I am no slumlord.

The flat is between tenants at present.

Yours faithfully etc.
 
Are you an absent landlord, about to sell up, with a standing tenant, who might-will be evicted so as to hand over the property to a new owner tenant free?, if so, I hope you get hammered by the crap exchange rate. Foriegn property owners are the Bain of working familys who need a roof over their heads. If the property is empty, then its more of a sin, when so many people need affordable accommodation. Making money out of desperate need is disgusting. May the fleas of a thousand camels infest your boxers.

If all of the above does not apply you, may your tribe increase and prosper.
And I thought I was a crabby bar steward. [doffs cap]
 
the forecast relative value at 1/1/2020 is 0.7338 of a pint.
 
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Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
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What the GBP does in the short term will be dependent on the success of Brexit.

Longer term, the pound has roughly halved in value against the dollar since the early 1970's. That trend is set to continue unless we get our exporting mojo back post Brexit, in which case, the point with stabilise or even recover a little against the dollar.

The other short term factor is that the pound is seen as a safe haven during a recession and the storm clouds are gathering. If the economic news worsens globally, expect the pound to strengthen. On t'other hand, property prices fall in a recession.

Wordsmith
 
View attachment 412748
What the GBP does in the short term will be dependent on the success of Brexit.

Longer term, the pound has roughly halved in value against the dollar since the early 1970's. That trend is set to continue unless we get our exporting mojo back post Brexit, in which case, the point with stabilise or even recover a little against the dollar.

The other short term factor is that the pound is seen as a safe haven during a recession and the storm clouds are gathering. If the economic news worsens globally, expect the pound to strengthen. On t'other hand, property prices fall in a recession.

Wordsmith
Many thanks. Graph is especially helpful. ;-)
 

MrBane

LE
Moderator
Kit Reviewer
Reviews Editor
Having prospered through my electrical and joinery business, I also run several investment funds.

There's one thing consistent with the pound, and that is the fact it's shiny and has a Queens head on it. As any well versed traveller will tell you, when you're dealing with third world countries like some African republics, Indonesian backwaters and America, our currency retains its value regardless of face trading price.

The best solutions for your property is to cash out now but retain the money in Sterling. Property has been climbing again after the last recession and the general analysis is that it will tank again once Brexit hits. There will also be an outing of the large scale corruption going on in the market with regards to property pricing and fixing as well as how home reports are conducted and reinstatement values assessed.

As such, you're ideally looking to keep the money in Sterling and reinvest, say in a holiday let business in Aviemore.

On a serious note, we're looking but not buying just now as there's a good chance property prices will take a sharp dip as people stop buying whilst the pound drops. Expect to see prices adjusted down.
 
Having prospered through my electrical and joinery business, I also run several investment funds.

There's one thing consistent with the pound, and that is the fact it's shiny and has a Queens head on it. As any well versed traveller will tell you, when you're dealing with third world countries like some African republics, Indonesian backwaters and America, our currency retains its value regardless of face trading price.

The best solutions for your property is to cash out now but retain the money in Sterling. Property has been climbing again after the last recession and the general analysis is that it will tank again once Brexit hits. There will also be an outing of the large scale corruption going on in the market with regards to property pricing and fixing as well as how home reports are conducted and reinstatement values assessed.

As such, you're ideally looking to keep the money in Sterling and reinvest, say in a holiday let business in Aviemore.

On a serious note, we're looking but not buying just now as there's a good chance property prices will take a sharp dip as people stop buying whilst the pound drops. Expect to see prices adjusted down.
Many thanks. Keeping the sale proceeds over there in an investment is certainly something we are considering. What funds can you recommend?
 

Slime

LE
A Grade 2 historic building on the Landsdown Road in Bath near the Crescent is unlikely to be the residence of a working family who need a roof over their head.
Well done for dropping that 'e' that jumpinjarhead added to the road name.

Typical money grabbing landlord, adding 'extras' to the property description to boost the value :)
 
Well done for dropping that 'e' that jumpinjarhead added to the road name.

Typical money grabbing landlord, adding 'extras' to the property description to boost the value :)
Hah! OP edited to correct misspelling--I also had too many "d"s in street name. ;-) Profound apologies.

I gave the details to give context to the type property it is to hopefully help get the most relevant responses if anyone were to suggest holding on to the property instead of selling now etc.
 
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Slime

LE
Hah! OP edited to correct misspelling--I also had too many "d"s in street name. ;-) Profound apologies.

I gave the details to give context to the type property it is to hopefully help get the most relevant responses if anyone were to suggest holding on to the property instead of selling now etc.
While Brexit may affect tourism*
There are so many visitors to that area from the US, Japan and China that the area should always do well, and property prices are likely to be good. Let’s face it, there aren’t going to be sudden rise in numbers of properties in that area so demand will stay high.

* A reduction in the numbers of French and Italian kids aimlessly wandering around the shops in large groups would be a real bonus :)
 

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