Future War and the Defence of Europe

Future War and the Defence of Europe

Pteranadon

LE
Book Reviewer
This work is intended as a wake up call about the risks to Europe in the next ten years. The authors are two retired US Generals and a British academic.

There are six core messages.
  1. COVID -19 is likely to accelerate change and magnify systemic tensions.
  2. The global balance of military power is shifting fast and eroding America's strategic dominance.
  3. Technology is fast changing the character of warfare and will make it easier for Europe's adversaries large and small...

Click here to read the full review.....
 
In a war game scenario for the present time, and it may well be in less than ten years, let us postulate the Red Force major players as being who might be considered present day threats to global peace, and a possible alliance, China, Russia, Iran, N Korea, Pakistan.

Blue force, the pricipal US, UK, EU, Western Europe, Israel Japan, Australia, N Zealand, S Korea, Taiwan, Singapore.

There will be others who would then quickly become involved, however the initial kick-off the above, though I may well have missed some obvious players so feel free.

Present jockeying is between
China/ US & Quad.
Russia/ Ukraine,
Iran & Syria/Israel.
Saudi/Yemen
Turkey/Greece

China has released COVID 19, possibly deliberately, possibly accidentally, but its effective global economic devastation to the rest of the globe magnified by concealment of its origin, toxicity, lethality, either deliberately or through face saving.

China through it state system of total control of the population, has been able to implement controls and measures to stop its effects on the country/nation that were not available to the majority of other less totalitarian states who have suffered greater numbers of casualties and economic damage accordingly. So China has a war chest and has been spending hugely on it armed forces.

Russia has been suffering economically under sanctions applied by European nations after Putins major misjudgement in the Ukraine. Putin is now gearing up to ‘rectify’ that situation, and ‘finish the job he started, and feels he was interrupted in, by the Western European states. He is taking the opportunity of
a) the weakened state the EU find themselves in through the combined toxic effects of COVID, and Brexit.
b)Turkey’s falling out with its NATO partners due it's loss of the F-35, its present increasingly toxic relations with Greece, France, Italy and Egypt with its adventures in the Med and Libya.

China is now preparing to complete unfinished business with Taiwan, with the US now under what it may consider as a weakened political leadership. A possibly senile President, the US now with a rapidly increasing illegal immigrant problem from the Mexican border, a running internal sore with BLM riots, an increasing internal wish to get the troops back from Afghanistan and the Middle East which have been a massive drain on the military.

China has had border problems with India in which it may well be feeling that it lost face. It is now seriously enmeshing Pakistan in its Belt Road policy of aid/indebtedness and will use Pakistan as a second front with India should it possibly have trouble from them. India is now seriously weakened by the COVID crisis which is now seriously out of control.

China can count on N Korea to keep S Korea fully occupied in the event of a global conflict.

Iran/Syria/Yemen will be effectively covered by Israel though once again with multiple fronts to possibly look after.

A fast and hard co-ordinated move by China and Russia who pretty well control the respective populations, would see scattered movements by a host of countries all trying to get permission from their respective populations to react.

The US will be fighting on two near peer fronts, the allies all in their sectors, and all on a back foot.

Not a pretty picture but with the present unsettled situation, generally global aggressive mood and posturing, it could all go very nasty very quickly
 
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