Future of China

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Pork_Pie, Jan 7, 2007.

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  1. Observer Article

    Interesting article - from a left leaning economist - arguing China's success cannot continue without major changes in govt.
  2. I agree with the article. The richer people get the more emboldened they will be and the more they will demand vis a vis rights.

    Economic progress might be the death knell of the Chinese no-democracy regime. Recently a Chinese City became the first in the country to achieve devloped nation status.


    This might be good for the residents but in the long term not good to the political leaders who believe that a needy population is easy to manage and manipulate.

    Economic empowerment for the Chinese poses the same dillemmas faced by colonialists: If the natives become too educated they might get uppity and start chanting slogans like "no representation no taxes."
  3. It really is amazing what the handover of Hong Kong did for their mentality. Aside from lowering barriers to entry into their market when they realised they couldn't actually touch the Jewel of the Orient for fear of smashing it, it's taught them that they can trust us westerners to honour 99 year old business deals.

    I am reminded of a recent yarn told to me just this chrimbo whereby some kind of Chinese Jesus Nut turned up in the helicopter yards up in Aberdeen, which was absolutely identical to standard issue, certified parts currently in use.

    Of course the engineers refused point blank to fit the part because it was Chinese and thus without any safety guarantee at all, but again this was all about attitude (and the right one I suspect). Even though it was something like 1/20th of the cost, and identical in every physical aspect, it just wasn't going to be used.

    This perspective will change slowly but surely with trust, and bugger knows what'll happen then to the competition, but I perceive it will only be linked real time with observed shifts towards some kind of bastardised democracy inside china itself.

    Still if anyone can travel a long road quite merrily, it'll be them.
  4. 1.21 GIGAWATTS!?! 1.21 gigawatts! Great Scott!!! Marty: Wait.. what the hell is a gigawatt?! :thumright:
  5. I have said for several years on this board that internal revolution will happen in China. Memory says that in 2005 there where over 50,000 minor insurections, large scale riots, put down by the authorities.
    Internal revolt is the normal history of China and most of the large overseas Chines communities can be traced back to these 'Revolts' and subsequent persecutions.
    The 'Rich' eastern coast and poverty stricken 'Western' interland will allow the next 'revolt' to happen.
    Where I live ALL the major industial corporations and large scale business are owned by families of Chinese desent.
    As an ex type rated aircraft engineer I can assure all board members that their are extreame penalties for allowing Unaurthoriesed parts to be fitted to any aircraft in the western world. Loss of licence being start point.
    It is was a well known fact that that items as large and complex as main rotor blades where being manufactured in Tiawan and I unknowingly fitted a Counterfit part to one helicopter tail rotor when in Mid East.
    It's that easy.
    Oh nothing to do with why I am a ex aircraft engineer I must add.
  6. Jonwilly,

    Do you believe the Chinese will not be able to contain any internal insurrections? They did a pretty good job at Tiannamen(sp) Square. So long as the Chinese are happy and accumulating wealth, there might be no nationwide movement to bring democracy to China.

    However, I suspect that the Chinese social engineers will see which way the wind is blowing and will start to bring in piecemeal changes in governance. It might take a generation or two, like the economic develpment, but it will happen.

    I have the suspicion that the next dominant form of goverment will come out of China. Just as democracy came out of the west.

    Why? Because, as a whole, democracy as we know it has not been entirely succesful outside Europe, America and the develped world.

    I suspect that a crossbreed of socialism and democracy will be the wave of the future.

  7. hmmm, as long as its not in a '1984' style vein.
  8. It will be 1984 stylle. America (which is supposed to be the free-est nation in the world) has already accepted the fact that Big Brother is ok.

    It will be very much 1984 style.
  9. I suspect this also, and it's no mean thing... because of one common word... Prosperity.

    We're redoing Solidarity over here too with our comrades.
  10. One day a movement wil kick off in China just as one did 50-60 years ago and gave Communisam, an idea that goes against Chinese belief.
    At the time of Tiennamen, Chinese said Han will never turn against Han.
  11. The Chinese had better concentrate on quality if they are thinking about the future.
    Most of the stuff they fabricate is condemned when it arrives on site.
    It's not unusual to find a Japanese in a container mumbling" fcuking Chinese fcuking Chinese...."
    The other day I took my Chinese copy watch to be repaired at the market.
    The old guy I went to who was all skin and bone and looked a 100 years old at least.
    All he owned was a stool that looked older than him and a tiny toolbox.
    He fixed the watch and refused to take any money telling my girlfriend he felt sorry for me having to wear such a poor quality watch.
    It looks nice though.
    So now all my watches have spainish internals(his recommendation)
  12. Well China is changing politically very much so and as many have said that is a direct result of a massively growing prosperous middle class. Older Communist cadres are being sidelined and young more open minded ones are being promoted. Unions are getting quite powerful and workers form text 'flash mobs' to intimidate abusive factory bosses, the internet is a major factor in diluting state control and supervision, also allowing Beijing to gauge what the people will or will not accept.


    The problem is not the 300 million+ educated reasonably comfortable Chinese who are agitating for some form of Democracy, its the 900 million+ not so well off and educated, who could very easily fall prey to a 'Nuke Japan Now!' party or a 'Every one can move to the comfortable Cities!' party, perhaps a 'annex Siberia' party or a Maoist ' every one must live like peasants and the foreign devils can whistle for their damned consumer goods' party.

    As Dear Old Don Rumsfeld said: ' freedoms messy, stuff happens.....', Beijing knows that as well as it knows its own people, it won't be flippant with China's future, so its a gradual roll out of a limited local democracy coupled to an educated and comfortable population.
  13. Putting it mildly - Hutton is ex-BBC, ex-Guardian, and very much a Socialist. No need to worry about China buying up coal in Australia, copper in Chile, iron-ore in Brazil, gas in Iran, oil in Sudan, or arable land in Zimbabwe....................if we continue to run huge trade deficits with China and transfer technology like the Airbus and Rolls-Royce aero-engines factories.............................well pretty soon they'll all become Social Democrats on the Swedish model sharing the rewards of the richest 100 million with the other 1.3 billion.

    Meanwhile Europeans will all be working in "creative industries" making Reality TV shows and running brothels for rich Chinese visitors.

    Hutton seems to forget that the very rich are connected to the Communist Party - go look where Deng Hsao-Peng's family live - Canada or USA ....................maybe China will emerge as a Cuddly Capitalist Oligarchy like Russia................now there's an inspiring thought
  14. The artiicle's argument that continued economic development need be predicated on political lberalisation already seems to have been invalidated in the past: Gorbachev married his glasnost with perestroika and when the perestroika got bumpy, glasnost meant that resistance and opposition got out of control and led to the breakup of the USSR. The Chinese, at the same time, followed their own own perestroika but definately not any perestroika: 1989 may have been a flowering of freedom in the West but not in Tianaen Square.

    Many economic arguments seem to suffer from viewing the world through a culture-free lens, assuming the transferability of ideas from one society/economy to another. There are good reasons to believe that a more authoritarian style of government is more tenable in China than any Western society with similar economic circumstances.

    I'm doing an International Management Masters at the moment and the work on cross-cultural comparisons in leadership perhaps offers some insights into this. Confucian'heritage societies lean towards a high power distance and Western ones towards a lower one on a spectrum plus there are other identified differences - individualism vs collectivism, interdependence vs independence, masculinity vs feminity, kigh uncertainty avoidance vs low etc.

    Confucian values such as xiao (filial piety) and the like arguably mean, combined with a 1980s+ historical perspective, China might be be able to continue along its present track longer than many might wish/expect. If they can sustain their present rate of economic growth with energy and commodity prices as they are, surely it would take a pretty big internal or external shock to de-rail them?