FTSE: 8000 by year end?

A little update, SIPP now only 9.9% down with three holdings actually showing profit, hopefully the other holding will follow.

My gamble portfolio is up 7% over all. TW being the best buy at being 15% up since buy in.
A little update:
SIPP is now at only 5.6% down with 6 holdings showing profit.
Holdings in RR. still not showing any green shoots and still tanked.

My gambling portfolio is now up 10.9% since buy in. The HL UK asset accumulation fund seems to have been the most stable climber. Lloyds has been on a roller coaster.
 
A little update:
SIPP is now at only 5.6% down with 6 holdings showing profit.
Holdings in RR. still not showing any green shoots and still tanked.

My gambling portfolio is now up 10.9% since buy in. The HL UK asset accumulation fund seems to have been the most stable climber. Lloyds has been on a roller coaster.
I put some money into the markets 4th may. Has risen by 5% net of charges which is enough to pay the CGT bill due from the source of the £.

Which is nice.
 
I put some money into the markets 4th may. Has risen by 5% net of charges which is enough to pay the CGT bill due from the source of the £.

Which is nice.
Good for you!
Next month I am going to look at changing some of the funds I have in my SIPP. I am tempted to switch from individual companies & income funds to accumulation funds. I need to do my home work first though.
 
Good for you!
Next month I am going to look at changing some of the funds I have in my SIPP. I am tempted to switch from individual companies & income funds to accumulation funds. I need to do my home work first though.
I'm not a fan of stock picking: too much risk of concentration of investment leading to disproportionate losses if you get it wrong. Obviously if you get it right, happy days.

There is an Efficient Frontier number of stocks to mitigate risk, of around 40. Little point in having more than that for risk mitigation purposes as the maths don't stack up. If I'm teaching you to suck eggs, my apologies.


I'd much rather buy an index of a particular market that may interest you.

I'm seeing comment about investors focus returning to value stocks, FWIW.
 
I'm not a fan of stock picking: too much risk of concentration of investment leading to disproportionate losses if you get it wrong. Obviously if you get it right, happy days.

There is an Efficient Frontier number of stocks to mitigate risk, of around 40. Little point in having more than that for risk mitigation purposes as the maths don't stack up. If I'm teaching you to suck eggs, my apologies.


I'd much rather buy an index of a particular market that may interest you.

I'm seeing comment about investors focus returning to value stocks, FWIW.
At the end of the day, successful investing is about risk management. Years ago, I had a CO who made a very lucrative second income from the horses. He operated a sophisticated risk management strategy that meant he always took money form those who don’t. Shit CO, spent all afternoon in the Racing Post.
 
2 things coming up that will have a IMO a negative impact on UK Markets.

The first being the release of Q2 GDP figures ( in conjunction with the weekly / monthly PMI data )

Q1 was bad, Q2 is going to be diabolical.

The second being:

The government will start tapering its furlough scheme from August by forcing those employers taking part to pay 20% of workers’ wages as well as covering their national insurance and pension contributions.

Currently there are over 8.4 million workers and 2.1 million self employed being kept off unemployment figures by the UK's furlough schemes.

In addition, as of the end of March, unemployment was 1.3 million, by the end of April it had risen to 2.1 million, and will continue rising over the next few months,

Add into the mix the % of the 10 million above, who will no longer have employment when the furlough scheme starts to be phased out.

Not withstanding that the markets are overpriced and are being artificially inflated by Central banks.
 
At the end of the day, successful investing is about risk management. Years ago, I had a CO who made a very lucrative second income from the horses. He operated a sophisticated risk management strategy that meant he always took money form those who don’t. Shit CO, spent all afternoon in the Racing Post.
My Dad was a big gambler on the horses with various strategies and I spent a lot of time stood out side of bookies in the 80's...
"Who said life was fair" & "Don't gamble more than you can lose" was the lesson learnt.

Personally I do not want individual companies to make up more that 1/4 of my SIPP at any one time with set caps on each investment based on risk.

As PK says, the markets are due for more distribution at as the stimulus package changes, however have the funds already factored this in.
My gut feeling is to move profit from individual share profit to Acc funds and cash (to invest in a second dip).
 
My Dad was a big gambler on the horses with various strategies and I spent a lot of time stood out side of bookies in the 80's...
"Who said life was fair" & "Don't gamble more than you can lose" was the lesson learnt.

Personally I do not want individual companies to make up more that 1/4 of my SIPP at any one time with set caps on each investment based on risk.

As PK says, the markets are due for more distribution at as the stimulus package changes, however have the funds already factored this in.
My gut feeling is to move profit from individual share profit to Acc funds and cash (to invest in a second dip).
I don’t invest in equity in the markets at all; I trade. My holdings will invariably in CFDs which I rarely hold for more than a week. I have strict rules that govern my entry and exit; I never trade emotionally.

My equity holdings are funded by my trading and are usually in SMEs. I usually invest by direct investment through an angel platform but I’ve dabbled in investing through equity crowd funding. I have zero interest in investing in corporates.
 
My Dad was a big gambler on the horses with various strategies and I spent a lot of time stood out side of bookies in the 80's...
"Who said life was fair" & "Don't gamble more than you can lose" was the lesson learnt.

Personally I do not want individual companies to make up more that 1/4 of my SIPP at any one time with set caps on each investment based on risk.

As PK says, the markets are due for more distribution at as the stimulus package changes, however have the funds already factored this in.
My gut feeling is to move profit from individual share profit to Acc funds and cash (to invest in a second dip).
Thing is, if poor figures of any kind are expected, the markets will immediately factor that in.

They dont wait for the figures to be announced and then react.
 
Thing is, if poor figures of any kind are expected, the markets will immediately factor that in.

They dont wait for the figures to be announced and then react.
Not quite true. What will be priced in is what the analysts think is the most likely outcome. That can be very different from the actual outcome. The expected downside will be priced in. That’s expectation may be pessimistic, in which we can expect an up tick, or it may be optimistic in which case we can expect a down tick.

In normal trading conditions, there will be a good correlation. In uncertain times, there won’t. Markets will be volatile, jumping around on every bit of good or bad news.

The best indicator IMHO is the VIX, a volatility index measured on the Chicago Exchange. It’s coming back down towards normality.
 
I don’t invest in equity in the markets at all; I trade. My holdings will invariably in CFDs which I rarely hold for more than a week. I have strict rules that govern my entry and exit; I never trade emotionally.

My equity holdings are funded by my trading and are usually in SMEs. I usually invest by direct investment through an angel platform but I’ve dabbled in investing through equity crowd funding. I have zero interest in investing in corporates.
Back in Jan I got chatting to a friend who is involved in an Angel platform/venture capital for BAME businesses. It looked really interesting and he get a real kick from being involved.
Unfortunately his area was £100k minimum investment, which is totally out of my league. There are other options with lower investment levels, so it is still on my radar.
 
Thing is, if poor figures of any kind are expected, the markets will immediately factor that in.

They dont wait for the figures to be announced and then react.
The 4 main reasons that the markets are currently overpriced is that they are factoring in:

Gambler strategy - Optimism V Pessimism.

1. A Covid vaccine will be found this year.

2. Most of the 10 + million currently on furlough will have a job to return to.

3. The economy is going to quickly rebound ( even though it hasn't finished sinking yet )

4. Central banks throwing money around like rice at a Chinese wedding.

But you knew that, right ?
 
The 4 main reasons that the markets are currently overpriced is that they are factoring in:

Gambler strategy - Optimism V Pessimism.

1. A Covid vaccine will be found this year.

2. Most of the 10 + million currently on furlough will have a job to return to.

3. The economy is going to quickly rebound ( even though it hasn't finished sinking yet )

4. Central banks throwing money around like rice at a Chinese wedding.

But you knew that, right ?
You think that markets are overpriced, we get that. If traders thought that was the case, they'd be shorting or dumping stock with alacrity. And prices would be tumbling.

I don't think you have much idea what you're talking about, but hey ho.
 
Not quite true. What will be priced in is what the analysts think is the most likely outcome. That can be very different from the actual outcome. The expected downside will be priced in. That’s expectation may be pessimistic, in which we can expect an up tick, or it may be optimistic in which case we can expect a down tick.
I'm not suggesting for a moment that current prices definitively reflect certainty and agree, its what analysys / the market think is the most likely outcome.

If consensus is for a tumble due to future figures, that will be factored in immediately.
 
You think that markets are overpriced, we get that. If traders thought that was the case, they'd be shorting or dumping stock with alacrity. And prices would be tumbling.
I gave you 4 reasons why the markets are overpriced, and this is the best that you come up with ?

I don't think you have much idea what you're talking about, but hey ho.
You could have at least tried to provide an explanation for the current ( UK ) Market prices given the vast array of truly wonderful economic good news that is flowing out of the UK.

That might have been beyond your capabilities.
 
I gave you 4 reasons why the markets are overpriced, and this is the best that you come up with ?
No; you gave four reasons why you think markets are overpriced.

Not the same thing.
 
No; you gave four reasons why you think markets are overpriced.
Is that the best you can come up with ?

I'll ask you again

You could have at least tried to provide an explanation for the current ( UK ) Market prices given the vast array of truly wonderful economic good news that is flowing out of the UK.
It was rhetorical, I had already answered.

That might have been beyond your capabilities.
 
Is that the best you can come up with ?
It was all I needed to come up with.

The fact is, you have little to zero knowledge of investment markets and simply posted the reasons why YOU think markets are over priced.
 
You could have at least tried to provide an explanation for the current ( UK ) Market prices given the vast array of truly wonderful economic good news that is flowing out of the UK.

That might have been beyond your capabilities.
If only I'd started a thread about it...

Guess "comprehension" is beyond your abilities.

Now toddle off while I pay a CGT bill.
 
I'm not suggesting for a moment that current prices definitively reflect certainty and agree, its what analysys / the market think is the most likely outcome.

If consensus is for a tumble due to future figures, that will be factored in immediately.
I disagree. The price today represents today’s analysis of events. If the analysis is confident, you get an uptrend. If the analysis is the opposite, you get a down trend. “Tumbles” occur when black swan events occur; events that aren’t priced in. They gain a herd momentum which eventuates into a stampede.

At the moment, markets are going sideways. There’s no discernible trend, no cyclicity and price action is small. Meanwhile, uncertainty is high (the VIX).

My own view is that we are likely to see a swathe of corporate failures and restructures in Q3&4. Whether they trigger a downtrend or a stampede, who knows?
 

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