FTSE: 8000 by year end?

You really shouldn't talk about yourself in such drastic terms.

You were SPOTY 2019 for a reason, that reason is really nothing to crow about.
Because I triggered so many vapid twats such as yourself.
Now, hush.
 
1. Have you still not worked out that the Markets are being artificially propped up by the unprecedented printing of funny money ?

2. Have you still not worked out that it has been many a year since the Markets actually reflected reality on the ground ?

This should be 2nd nature to you, after all it is your job and you have seen it all before, or so you claim.




Just for the record. It is not my doom and gloom, it is the picture being painted by economists. I am merely the conduit to bring it to these pages.

As the FTSE is rising according to you. Is it closer to the 8000 that gave you a wee woody, and had you scrambling to post a new thread, or is it closer to the 4500 - 5000 range that I posted months ago ?
There are plenty of traders taking long positions even now. Or placing put options. There’s always money to be made in the counter trade if you’ve got the balls to do it.
 
IIRC the last two times you've posted doom and gloom PMI figures, both the Dow and the FTSE 100 ended the day on a high.

Genuine question - which you'll probably avoid - why do you put such significance on those figures?
Quick reminder to @Portree Kid - think you've missed this - why do you put such significance on PMI figures?
 

elovabloke

ADC
Moderator
Would appreciate you tbreadbanning him.

He's contributing nothing; tbe figures he posts are totally irrelevant to the subject under discussion.

He can't even explain why he posts them...
If I threadbanned everyone who posted an irrelevant post there be no bugger on any threads after page one.
 

Has someone woken up and breathed in the coffee odours yet ?

Has someone woken up and realised that the economic carnage has barely started ?

Don't be scratching your head now, you will start a fire.
I thought I read the other day - That the latest issue of debt (Gilts) bonds issued by the Debt Management office were bought up by The Bank of England via funny money also know as Quantitative Easing

So the Governor of the Bank of England is writing an IOU to himself


Archie
 
Nobody is disputing that.

I'll refer you to the the thread title.
The OP started the thread in October 2019 when 8000 by the end of that year was a realistic possibility and COVID-19 was unheard of.

I don’t believe any of us think it will recover to its 2019 peaks quickly. So the question now is are; are we at the bottom. I don’t think so.
 
The OP started the thread in October 2019 when 8000 by the end of that year was a realistic possibility and COVID-19 was unheard of.

I don’t believe any of us think it will recover to its 2019 peaks quickly. So the question now is are; are we at the bottom. I don’t think so.
Go on @bobthebuilder tell why you don`t think we have reached the bottom yet

Archie
 
Go on @bobthebuilder tell why you don`t think we have reached the bottom yet

Archie
Fundamentally, the businesses that make up the FTSE are going to report dire results this year. Some very big names may well fail or require some form of bailout. Any bailout that involves the Government taking an equity stake is going to dilute existing equity. I don’t seen much positive about the British economy now; unless the government moves quickly to get the economy moving, depression or stagflation loom.

Technically, the FTSE is forming a bit of a bear flag. It’s also in no-mans-land, going sideways on 6000. 6000 is a Big Number, but it isn’t on a support line or trend line and it’s not a Fibonacci regression. I can see space for it to regress further to stronger technical support.
 
Quick reminder to @Portree Kid - think you've missed this - why do you put such significance on PMI figures?
Do you know what PMI's are ?

Do you know how, why and by whom they are compiled ?

If you know the answer then you should you know the effects that they have on the Stock Markets, and should not need me to explain it to you.

Fill yer boots


As has been pointed out repeatedly, the UK PMI's are on a downward spiral, there is no end to that downward spiral in sight and this will be reflected, especially from the end of Q2 onwards until the end of the year at the very least.

This is why I post various PMI's and despite your howling, they are not off topic, neither are they garbage or any other form of detrimental terms you wish to use.
 
I will refer you to posts 3 and 4, both posts made in October 2019.



Neither do I.

I am in the 4500 - 5000 range by the end of 2020, there are others who are predicting sub 4000.
The two lows from the noughties provide technical support and are convergent with a Fib retracement. A bottom around 3750 would not be technically unexpected.

If it goes there it will go there quickly. IMHO it will only take one of the big names to go under to trigger it.
 
The two lows from the noughties provide technical support and are convergent with a Fib retracement. A bottom around 3750 would not be technically unexpected.
Indeed

According to figures from Refinitiv, six of the 10 biggest one day gains came between September and December in 2008, but the index did not bottom out until March 2009 after further heavy falls of nearly 30 per cent.

Another 30% would take the FTSE 100 close to the 4000 mark.
 
Do you know what PMI's are ?

Do you know how, why and by whom they are compiled ?

If you know the answer then you should you know the effects that they have on the Stock Markets, and should not need me to explain it to you.

Fill yer boots


As has been pointed out repeatedly, the UK PMI's are on a downward spiral, there is no end to that downward spiral in sight and this will be reflected, especially from the end of Q2 onwards until the end of the year at the very least.

This is why I post various PMI's and despite your howling, they are not off topic, neither are they garbage or any other form of detrimental terms you wish to use.
So you can't give a decent explanation as to why you post them.

As expected.
 
Equally, I’ve read articles that assess that the bear trap won’t no close as it’s too late. I don’t out much stead on financial journalists waffle.
Interestingly, since the date of that FTAdviser article, my wrap value has increased by 10.8% net of charges.

Which is nice.

And, amusingly, I'm regularly quoted in FTAdviser on pension matters in particular.
 
Interestingly, since the date of that FTAdviser article, my wrap value has increased by 10.8% net of charges.

Which is nice.

And, amusingly, I'm regularly quoted in FTAdviser on pension matters in particular.
FTAdviser and pretty much every other commentary financial journalism is of little use to me as it lags too much. It is also, like most journalism, partisan. Not politically, but bears v bulls. You never see an article that is neutral!

For me, fundamentals count. I make my own interpretation. And indicators like PMI are essential. Pretty much every other indicator you can use and interpret is backward looking, including price action. PMIs are one of the few indicators that is forward looking.

I struggle to see how anyone can be bullish when PMIs are well below 50. The people who make purchasing decisions in business don’t expect to be making purchases. Hardly bullish.

BTW I target 5% capital growth monthly.
 

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