Front National to win French Election 2017?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by armchair_jihad, Nov 11, 2016.

?
  1. Marine Le Pen, Front Nationale

    136 vote(s)
    77.3%
  2. Alain Juppé, Republicans

    19 vote(s)
    10.8%
  3. Nicolas Sarkozy, Hot wife

    11 vote(s)
    6.3%
  4. François Hollande, Socialist

    5 vote(s)
    2.8%
  5. Others: French Commies etc.

    5 vote(s)
    2.8%

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  1. In very much the same way that Obama's input and his veiled threats to a UK voting for Brexit probably did quite severe damage to the 'remain' cause. The reality of 'Project Fear' became quite stark at that point.
     
  2. I believe Hollande is far more disliked in France than Obama was/is disliked in the UK. As he's the French President it's not the same as Obama and the Referendum. Maybe if Merkel voiced her opinion it would be similar.

    As for his opinion, it will undoubtedly make those on the right and some disaffected voters feel more inclined to vote for Le Pen than Fillon simply because he has said he wants to stop Le Pen. Whether it's enough remains to be seen.
     
  3. I have a feeling history might militate against that.......
     
  4. Militate? Doubt it as in "To be a powerful or conclusive factor in preventing something". France and Russia may have a lot of history, but I believe the past century or so has shown that France is more aligned to the UK than to Russia and far more aligned in the past forty or so years to the idea of the EU than to any other alliance or 'entente'. I doubt very much they like the (alleged) Russian influence either. Certainly Macron doesn't.

    As for Germany, they seem to have successfully forgotten about a century of warfare to bring about (what they think is) the 'European dream'
     
  5. Given the Republican is staying in and highly unlikely to poll well, where would a naturally republican voting voter go?

    Centre or Far Right? Will they go for this Technocrat trying to be all things to everyone or Le Pen?
     
  6. [QUOTE="scalieback, post: 7766514, member: 5821]

    As for Germany, they seem to have successfully forgotten about a century of warfare to bring about (what they think is) the 'European dream'[/QUOTE]
    That's the paradox, it's the dream they've been told the must have by guess who?And we've successfully forgotten any number of wars we've had with guess who. The Entente was a major political miscalculation.
     
  7. Successive French politicians since De Gaulle?
    Both of them? There's not many countries outside the Commonwealth we haven't had a war with.
    For who? The French or the British?
     
  8. If Le Pen does get in it certainly will change the whole EU radically. (no shyte professor ..) Perhaps the UK is getting out just in time?
     
  9. Certainly not the French
     
  10. Really? So they'd have preferred that we never came to their aid in 1914? Oh well,

    I suppose occupation under the Kaiser would be preferable? The Dardanelles a solely French mission?
     

  11. I have no preferences one way or the other. I look on Political activity from a purely pragmatic point of view.
    The reality to me is that France gained the benefit that they could concentrate on undermining Germany. The Benefit to us was that together with the French we could keep the colonial system going and limiting German ambition. The joint benefit was we didn't like the nasty Germans. It is entirely another matter to assume that there would have been a war had we not had the entente. We entirely forgot in our Euphoric frenzy to become Francophile that France had it's own agenda and our not interfering with it in no way helped us.
    We also forget that it's a natural tendency for countries to go through expansionist phases. If you look at Russia and North Korea at the moment and we did it. Us good, everyone else bad. The plain fact was that since we were not in the driving seat in '14 we could not afford to be left out. Cold hard fact is it wasn't good for us, accelarated the decline of the empire.
     
  12. That's a convoluted way of saying entente cordial was not good for us (as in the U.K.) In a nutshell, as we've discussed before, WW1 was 'too good to miss.'

    Everybody did it in the eighteenth and early 19th century. Some countries have grown up since then. Others haven't. Still threatening neighbours and annexing parts of other nations.

    As for N Korea, I don't think we've ever had the UN (or League of Nations) roundly condemn us and impose numerous sanctions. Happy to be corrected of course :)
     
  13. On the Hollande question, I did post a quote some time back from a mainstream French newspaper that if opinion polls existed way back then, Petain would come out ahead of Hollande.
    That says a lot to me about the current political classes, and not just in France either.
    Chamberlain would also probably be above Corbyn too.
     
  14. We've had the odd slapped wrist, but I can' t remember the exact reasons. No I was merely pointing out I'm trying to be non partisan. In terms of your earlier comment I recall no plans by Willi to occupy us:). Sad deluded unhappy perhaps.
     
  15. Must admit I initially took your point that France didn't benefit from entente cordial. Je comprend maintenant