From bad to worse

Discussion in 'Afghanistan' started by alib, Dec 7, 2011.

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  1. Thought this story deserved a thread of its own.

    On FP From bad to worse By Anand Gopal
    My bold, so basically the Afghan talibans are losing control of Pakistani beards. There'd been some resigned talk of a drawdown in 2014 leading to a return to the civil war as we found it, this may be optimistic, it could be worse than that. These guys have been using the same techniques to stir up the Punjab with some success. Also negotiating with Afghan taliban trying to burnish nationalist was hard enough, further fragmentation and these Pakistani bam pots could make that impossible.
  2. So are we looking at a potential alliance of Taleban with a the multi-national coallition to defeat the Paks, with the carrot of the West bullying Karzai into a power-sharing agreement?
  3. A natural consequence of the ongoing decapitation efforts against Taliban forces.
    NATO and Afghan Government forces have been actively culling local mid level leaders at a high rate. These are the guys that controlled local warbands , but which are now less and less under the old Taliban chain of command. The links between the 'Old' Taliban leadership, and the foot soldier are broken.
    What's left is a 'shadow' CoC that leads right back into the Pakistani military Establishment.

    It's an Islamic version of Vietnam after the Tet Offensive. The 'Local' insurgents were pretty much knocked out, and the real push then came from the untouched enemy heartland where troops could be freely recruited, trained and inserted over the border.

    This is actually what Pakistan wants, because it means that (in their odd world view) they 'own' the Afghan insurgency and can turn it on or off to get concessions from the USA. -which means that the USA has to talk to them and not the real bogeyman for Pakistan, the Indians.

    Insanity, of course, as the Pakistan Establishment doesn't want to admit that their 'tame' terrorists, that they've sponsored in Kashmir for years, have turned into a Frankenstein's Monster that are as likely to rip their heads off as any Infidels they can catch.
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