Free and prosperous Palestinian state, asset or liability?

Free and prosperous Palestinian state

  • Asset

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Liability

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
#1
Now let's say Western policy elites get what they wish for. The Palestinians are granted a viable state all of the West bank and there is a deal over sharing Jerusalem. Oh happy day!

DC is finally free of this huge policy distraction and can get on with the Great Game. The Israelis will be sulking in the corner but eagerly awaiting the huge enduring bung an elated POTUS Barry has promised them.

Israel makes a peace with the Arabs. The restive populations that cower under the Arab elites we favor would be mollified and that's good for energy security isn't it?

Will we have drained the swamps of terrorism? Bin Laden hands himself in, Ayman al-Zawahiri endorses gay rights and Mullah Omar retires to farm Pata Negra. Well obviously not. Indeed the first two would be furious and issue a Fatwah against the apostate Pals. Over time we could reasonably expect to have a few less bearded numpties to deal with.

But what if it all goes pear shaped as I was saying on another thread:
And taking the paranoid view what if it ends up as The Islamic Republic Of Palestine as is not unlikely looking at Pal voter trends. Riddled with Iranian influence like Baghdad or worse the Beqaa valley. Ruled rather efficiently by an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and backed by a rising nuclear power a shining example of Islam being the answer. A prospect that would also terrify the tinpot operations in Cairo, Amman, Riyadh and for that matter Damascus.
Freedoms march spreads through the region, but its the wrong kind of freedom. Hostile to DC and backed by Qom. We lose our oil rich Arab client states to angry population mobilized by the Pals example.

Not saying that's what would happen. Judging by recent behavior the Pals would probably be at each others throats much of the time. But would a Pal state really be a secure bet? A single state solution where the Pals get a fairer shake might actually be a safer goal if even more challenging.
 
#2
I think that a free and prosperous Palestinian state would be an asset, the problem is that an independent Palestine is likely to be neither free or prosperous.

By the way, I have long thought that the best solution would be to make the de-facto situation before the 6 day war official, i.e. the West Bank becomes part of Jordan and the Gaza Strip becomes part of Egypt.
 
#3
Mobat said:
...
By the way, I have long thought that the best solution would be to make the de-facto situation before the 6 day war official, i.e. the West Bank becomes part of Jordan and the Gaza Strip becomes part of Egypt.
Well that would stop the freedoms march problem dead in its tracks.
 
#4
Given that the best policy Israel seems to have been able to come up with so far is to subjugate and regularly terrorise an entire population in perpetuity and cry 'racism' at any critics, it seems hard to imagine Palestinians being anything other than untermensch in a single state solution. Were this not to be the case, then the clear frailties (largely engineered by Israel), of a Palestine state mean that a single state solution might actually be better. Alternatively, perhaps Israelis could live happily in a Palestinian-run state? Or regularly swap control in some kind of Yugoslavian-type solution?

PS The whole 'wrong kind of freedom' thing kills me.
 
#6
Dilfor said:
Given that the best policy Israel seems to have been able to come up with so far is to subjugate and regularly terrorise an entire population in perpetuity and cry 'racism' at any critics, it seems hard to imagine Palestinians being anything other than untermensch in a single state solution. Were this not to be the case, then the clear frailties (largely engineered by Israel), of a Palestine state mean that a single state solution might actually be better. Alternatively, perhaps Israelis could live happily in a Palestinian-run state? Or regularly swap control in some kind of Yugoslavian-type solution?

PS The whole 'wrong kind of freedom' thing kills me.
As the Pals would already outnumber the Jews in a single state solution and are rapidly out breeding them a straightforward democracy means an end to the Jewish racially defined state.

But actually this isn't an uncommon situation, look at once staunchly Prod Northern Ireland, Maronite Lebanon or Boer South Africa. Defeated Sunni Iraq or white bread California fast turning spicily Latino for that matter also face this problem. A once entirely politically dominant minority group if its lucky finds a constitutional compromise with with the plurality and it may not be so bad for them. The fractious and democratic nature of both Israeli and Pal politics might actually facilitate a lively ethno-sectarian system.

It seems no more unlikely that this could happen in Israel/Palestine than the spectacle of the chuckle brothers in Stormont would back in the last century.
 
#7
A frre palestine will happen eventually. Just as long as Israel is confident that it will not be used as a springboard for attacks. They have nearly had it in the past but the dreams have been dashed by a few hapless terrorists. If only there was a sensible woman to emerge as a leader, that would be the answer. :police:
 
#8
Nobody really likes the palestinians, not even other Arab countries who use the pals as a proxy to attack the hated Jew. Arab countries that have in the past let in large numbers of pals have regretted it and usually had to eject them by force. The Arabs do not in general give the pals sophisticated weapons as the pals would use them against other Arab countries. The pals get millions of dollars in aid which if it wasn't used to buy arms and salted away by corrupt officials would bring the average pals standard of living up condsiderably however a comfortable pal isn't going to be so keen on killing Jews and there is a great publicity value in having pal refugee camps. The West aids pals as they in their own way help stabilise the middle east.

Isreal is given aid to help keep the pals and the other Arab countries in check and is needed to focus Arab hate. Israel is also useful to the West as it can be relied upon to take robust action when they West won't, they are the West's proxy force. The West aids Isreal as they in their own way help stabilise the middle east.

I think the pals are the Pikey's of the Arab world and are a liability.
 
#9
As a foreigner who doesn't belong to the British military I haven't a moral right to vote. However...

... however, free and prosperous Palestinian state would significantly improve relations with the Arab countries, with the Muslim World. It would be much easier for Western firms to get lucrative contracts thus creating additional work places. Reliability of oil supplies from the ME would be almost 100%. The Palestinian question is used as an excuse of the terrorism. And eliminating this cause the West would resolve a very important problem.

What is on the 'liability' side? The West likely would pay big money, for example to fund removing of Jewish settlers from the West Bank. But the final result worths it.

Can Palestine be a prosperous state? Why not? Nearby Jordan have in fact mostly (75%) Palestinian population. Compare Gaza and Lebanon. Gaza could turn into a lovely resort and financial centre. In theory it is possible. The Arabs have huge money and a resolve to beat the Israelis by economical means.
 
#11
KGB_resident said:
.It would be much easier for Western firms to get lucrative contracts thus creating additional work places. Reliability of oil supplies from the ME would be almost 100%.
Much easier than trivially easy? And oil supply reliability from the ME is almost 100% anyway?

The Arabs are perfectly happy playing politics (badly) with one hand and commerce (really quite well - they've had thousands of years of practice) with the other. Admittedly, the latter is also the bum-wiping hand but, hey, it's cash and soap is cheap :)
 
#12
A free and prosperous Palestinian state can only be an asset to this country and the world.

However.

Whilst a Palestinian state is on the cards in the non too distant future, whether it will be allowed to be either free or prosperous must be in doubt. Is it in Hamas' interests to have a content Palestine, where prosperity will be the antipathy of revolution?

Here is what I see happening when the Palestinian state is born.

Terrorist attacks from Palestine on Israel will increase dramatically since Hamas will have unfettered access to weapons.

Israel will retaliate, clamping down on imports from road and sea. Possibly the West and Egypt will place sanctions.

Hamas will cry foul and incite the Palestinians to greater violence, all the while playing the victim.
 
#13
No_Duff said:
KGB_resident said:
Nearby Jordan have in fact mostly (75%) Palestinian population.
Utter balls.
You are right. 75% is a wrong number. There is a lot of new immigrants to Jordan (from Iraq, for example). So now we can speak about 60% of Palestinians in Jordan.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_refugee

There are as many as 3,043,877 Palestinian refugees in Jordan... Jordan granted most of the Palestinian refugees the Jordanian citizenship in 1950.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan

The Jordan National Census for the year 2004 was released on October 1 of the same year, According to the census, Jordan had a population of 5,100,981.
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
#14
Whet said:
A free and prosperous Palestinian state can only be an asset to this country and the world.

However.

Whilst a Palestinian state is on the cards in the non too distant future, whether it will be allowed to be either free or prosperous must be in doubt. Is it in Hamas' interests to have a content Palestine, where prosperity will be the antipathy of revolution?

Here is what I see happening when the Palestinian state is born.

Terrorist attacks from Palestine on Israel will increase dramatically since Hamas will have unfettered access to weapons.

Israel will retaliate, clamping down on imports from road and sea. Possibly the West and Egypt will place sanctions.

Hamas will cry foul and incite the Palestinians to greater violence, all the while playing the victim.
Stop doing this whet. This is now the 2nd post of yours where I agree with every owrd. Most disturbing that...

But to add my own slant to things, prosperity breeds prosperity and wealth begets wealth. If the Pals had a functioning state of their own that WAS prosperous it would frankly be in everyone's interests commerically. People with money like to spend it on goods and currently the West Bank and the Gazza Strip have zero ability to manufacture consumer electronics of their own. therefore imports. Then there would be such things as healthcare (Greece and the UK being two of the big players in pharmacuitical products etc. in that area of the world).

Then the prime reason CURRENTLY for the "justification" of radical islamic terrorism would be cut off at the knees. The looneys would find another reason to go nuts and attack the west (or indeed anyone NOT buying into their personal brand of sharia), but much of their grass roots support, funding and recruitment would be gone overnight. Starved of man-power and cash they would be far less of a threat/irritant. And of course the possibility exists that they would then start fighting like cats in a sack...

At worst a Pal state however would become another pre-2001 Ganners. Hamas controled regime providing a safe haven to the various global jihadiis but with much better infrastructure in terms of information, education and world transport. But as mentioned above this would require Hamas to keep the civ pop in destitue poverty after they get their own state. Can't really see that lastiong for long after "freedom day" TBH.

So at the risks of short term regional instability couipled to international terrorism against the opening of new markets for good and services and the likelyhood of said international terrorists withering on the vine within a few years... asset
 
#15
Idrach said:
KGB_resident said:
.It would be much easier for Western firms to get lucrative contracts thus creating additional work places. Reliability of oil supplies from the ME would be almost 100%.
Much easier than trivially easy? And oil supply reliability from the ME is almost 100% anyway?
The Arabs used the oil embargo as a political tool previously. And it is possible in the future. So the reliability of oil supplies from the Gulf is not 100% now.

As for contracts in some Arab countries (as Iraq) then apparently prosperous Palestinian state would make them more realistic for Western firms.

Look, the Coalition liberated Iraq but who would really get profits?

http://en.rian.ru/business/20100317/158225762.html

Russia's largest privately held oil company, LUKoil, plans to drill the first exploration well at the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq, LUKoil CEO Vagit Alekperov said on Wednesday.
...
On January 31, LUKoil signed a 20-year contract to develop Iraq's massive West Qurna-2 oil field.

LUKoil will develop the 12.88 billion-barrel oil field in the Basra province in southern Iraq as a consortium with Norway's StatoilHydro. The consortium, in which the Russian company holds 56.25% and StatoilHydro 18.75%
 
#16
how many arab states would want a free and prosperous pal state?
lebannon is more or less a democracy thats about it. :(

can't see syria or egypt or jordon wanting an arab democratic state or the nice suadis either :evil:
 

Trans-sane

LE
Book Reviewer
#18
No_Duff said:
brighton hippy said:
arab democratic state

No such thing and there never will be, islam does not do democracy.
Absolute rubbish. Indonesia? Democratic republic (recently had a very ordered transfer of power after the ruling parety lost a general election- the prime qualification for being a functional democracy. Population ~230 million, 86% muslim.

India? The world's largest democracy has around 140 million muslims- thats nearly half the population of the USA to put it into a reference you will understand.

Turkey? 71 million muslims, very functional democracy, muslim ruling party that has done nothing to over-turnm the legal requirements of the state apparatus to be secular.

Malaysia? Population of 28 million of which ~60% are muslim. Not only has a democratic parliment modelled on Westminster but also elects the monarch for a period of 5 years from the regional Sultans (didn't realise that til I did a bit of reading. Seems an interesting idea...)
 
#19
As it stands, there is not much left that hasn't already be stolen by Israel for them to make a reasonable go of it.

They have continually bombed the whole infrastructure and have steadily built illegal settlements, bulldozed ancient olive and date plantations and taken over all the commercially viable and best parts, while in process diverting the all important water supplies etc etc to supply their own businesses and those loony extremist settlers.

As an independent state I believe they could be a great asset if given the chance, but from the way Israel has acted it would need massive investment just to get it off the ground.

In the past the west has spent billions rebuilding in Palestine, only for Israel to destroy it again.

Black Buck One - Out
 
#20
KGB_resident said:
No_Duff said:
KGB_resident said:
Nearby Jordan have in fact mostly (75%) Palestinian population.
Utter balls.
You are right. 75% is a wrong number. There is a lot of new immigrants to Jordan (from Iraq, for example). So now we can speak about 60% of Palestinians in Jordan.
Arab borders have changed constantly during history and populations have moved as well. To argue that the Arabs who happened to be in Palestine (as defined by the UN) in 1948 are different to the Arabs in the surrounding countries is daft.

Which is one of the reasons I think that Palestine, as currently defined, should be incorporated into other Arab countries.

Although there is a difference between the Palestinians who have become useful citizens of whichever country they are now in and the “Sand Chavs” who prefer to sit around refugee camps complaining.
 

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