FBI Stats on Murder 2007-2012 = In decline

Discussion in 'US' started by Robbo_72, Jan 21, 2013.

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  1. Are more guns being purchased the reason behind a drop in murder 2007-2011?
    Maybe get the numbers for the population increase and it might produce some interesting stats (266,314,667 as of 2012, Legal citizens):

    FBI — Expanded Homicide Data Table 8

    Preliminary results for 2012 are -1.7% drop (of total population):

    FBI — Table 1

    So murder drops yet again in the year of record breaking gun sales.
    Something here is telling me the problem is guns in the hands of criminals and not the general population.

    Here is a nice FBI stat on Justifiable Homicide:

    FBI — Expanded Homicide Data Table 14

    Of course the US media with all thier flashy graphics and bite size statistics have failed to provide the viewers with this data, The FBI even provide the data in Excel spreadsheets so it's easy to import into other software.
    Agenda driven, hippy lazy journalism.
     
  2. Brotherton Lad

    Brotherton Lad LE Reviewer

  3. According to the book freakonomics the fall in murder in the US has a very clear reason.

    In the early 70s abortion was legalized, and so many many lower class and ghetto mothers chose that option.

    fast forwad to the 90s and 2000s the criminal class of young urban black is vastly depleted, hence fall in murder stats
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. were victorian plumbers noted as being violent ? hatters were cos of mercury, but not plumbers as I recall
     
  5. The UK population was probably more tooled up than Americas at the turn of the 20th Century, yet shootings were rare, so rare as to make national news.

    That would seem to rule out plumbers as the cause.
     
  6. Brotherton Lad

    Brotherton Lad LE Reviewer

    They didn't smoke their pipes, though. Do you remember when children's cots and toys were decorated with lead paints?
     
  7. Hatters worked indoors all day sat at close quarters to repeated doses of mercury fumes. Plumbers rarely spend a whole working day soldering.....
     
  8. My only sight quibble with this is abortion is perhaps the ultimate violent act against a defenseless human being.
     
  9. Shootings in the US didn't make national news in that era either. ;-)
     
  10. People need to be careful about the differences between correlation and causation.

    The Freakonomics authors attracted a lot of flak from academics for their their theory on abortion and crime rates. Partly, I'm sure, to some academics' sensibilities but also because in academia causation is incredibly difficult to convincingly prove.

    How about this: between 2007-2012, the US 'internet population' grew by 17%, which correlates with the drop in the murder rate. But it would be a stretch to suggest this increase has meant would-be murders have turned to facebook stalking instead of actual stalking.

    Also, whilst gun sales have increased since 1973 their distribution has decreased (50% in 1973 compared to 32% in 2010). Therefore, a smaller group of people have a larger amount of guns. (Link Analysis: Fewer U.S. gun owners own more guns - CNN.com

    So if fewer households own guns, how has this contributed to deterring violent crime? Surely it does not make a difference, in terms of deterrent, whether someone owns one firearm or twenty?
     
  11. TBH, I don't reckon that the number of legal guns has any bearing whatsoever on violent crime. Look up gun crime stats for the UK - the gun control measures made no difference, the rate of increase of gun crime is almost completely constant.

    [​IMG]
     
    • Like Like x 1
  12. Not really is it, at the stage that a fetus can be aborted it is not really a human. Better to abort an unwanted baby than mess up a woman's / couples life due to her lack of thought, preparation or other reasons.
    There are too many unwanted / 'un-cared' for children in the world.
     
  13. We will agree to disagree.
     
  14. Your point is well made. But I would add that very seldom is the real world a laboratory where replicable science can be administered. I would say the example of the internet take up and the murder rate is that of 2 factors which may or may not be causal to each other. However, the decline in black youth 16 to mid 20s is directly applicable to the statistics on murder, especially gang related ... so the qualitative argument is far more likely in that instance than the statistical example you cite.

    I should like to point out its more of a social economic problem than a racial one.. the lumpen unemployed masses in former US manufacturing towns tend to be black etc not an innate factor of just being black.

    The point being, the abortion choice is not really a choice for such people, growing up unloved, uneducated leaves little choice for these people.
     
  15. With respect, one always has choices. The problem is too often people make the wrong ones. The particular demographic segment to which your point is directed are largely the victims of the modern day "War on Poverty" plantation started by a cynical and racist Lyndon Johnson. After 2 plus generations of victims under this program, self esteem and work ethic have been supplanted with total dependence on government or crime to meet their needs. Thew more recent phenomenon of the last 25 years or so of many cities being run by blacks has been that sadly they are widely corrupt and inept and prey on the plight of these people to effectively keep them enslaved so as to ensure there continued hold on power through the votes of the captives.