Falklands Trouble Brewing

Do the Argentines even have the military power to attempt to invade the Falklands again, given that the garrison there is substantially larger than the garrison of 1982.
We have already proved that we will assemble a task force and sail South, would the Argentine political leaders want to be the ones responsible for the result of 2-0 to us.

Depends who you ask
The likes of Janes or Wavell room will give you a wall of text and in depth analysis which amounts to Not realistically

If you ask Spider then yes, because all british officers are arrogant donkeys, who wouldnt indertake any sort of threat assessment and so A company of infantry just sitting around at the airfield and a few crappy fighters - couldn't stop a false flag 747 full of commandoes or defend against a special forces team landed in the dark at Mare Harbour who hike* from there and set up a motar base to bomb** the airfield stopping all activity in seconds.




*Yomp, tab, bimble as applicable

**Do mortars bomb or shell an area
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
Yes but eventually things will need to be brought me by sea - fuel, food, munitions, spares, support equipment etc.

Is the enemy maintaining a blockade against our shipping? Even a single tanker delivering fuel or ship full if spares and equipment would need to be escorted and defended. Putting a constant CAP over hear would be troublesome.
Yes, you are right, but intially we could put up a massive resistance which we couldn't do in 1982.

If the aggressor is Argentina then any attempted blockade is likely to be quickly neutralised (based on current situation).
 

goodoldboy

MIA
Book Reviewer
Depends who you ask
The likes of Janes or Wavell room will give you a wall of text and in depth analysis which amounts to Not realistically

If you ask Spider then yes, because all british officers are arrogant donkeys, who wouldnt indertake any sort of threat assessment and so A company of infantry just sitting around at the airfield and a few crappy fighters - couldn't stop a false flag 747 full of commandoes or defend against a special forces team landed in the dark at Mare Harbour who hike* from there and set up a motar base to bomb** the airfield stopping all activity in seconds.




*Yomp, tab, bimble as applicable

**Do mortars bomb or shell an area
Who is Spider these days?
 

PhotEx

On ROPS
On ROPs
Supporting a garrison 8000 miles away only by air?

What happens when you run out of fuel for the aircraft, there is no diesel for the vehicles, and the tanker carrying fuel or vessels carrying spares gets sunk by submarine or a sneak air attack?

Even RAF Typhoon detachments in the Baltic states rely on equipment being moved by sea.


Well yes, thats exactly that the RAF does, puts 4 blokes in Typhoons and flies them down to MPA with tanker support to prove the ability to quickly reinforce the garrison. 17 hours, takes a bit longer for the not much left Argentinian Navy to sail across and invade.
 
Supporting a garrison 8000 miles away only by air?

What happens when you run out of fuel for the aircraft, there is no diesel for the vehicles, and the tanker carrying fuel or vessels carrying spares gets sunk by submarine or a sneak air attack?

Even RAF Typhoon detachments in the Baltic states rely on equipment being moved by sea.

Argentina has neither capability at the moment , nor the political will .
The last thing the Fernandes/Kirchner government wants to do is to re arm the military .
They don't really want the islands , they want the conflict , to get the populace behind them and get them to forget they've been locked down in a police state for 4 months now , are starving in a country of abundant food production and that the economy is at a complete standstill
Income tax , for the poor saps ( 35% ) that still have work and support the 65% on government handouts , has just gone up to 41% , with promises of further increases to come .
What they will do is to cause incidents involving fishing vessels encroaching in Falklands waters ,film them and stick them on the news to stir up the masses and to bleat to the UN and the Organization of American States .
What they would dearly love is some dead fishermen .
Martyrs are always good television and will get the angry people ( all of whom are paid to attend and are carried in school buses , incidentally ) in the Plaza de Mayo to cheer the prez , as he swears revenge .
 

PhotEx

On ROPS
On ROPs
A hundred years ago, Argentina was a fabulously wealthy country, with the worlds 10th highest per capita income. It grew at an astonishing rate through the twenties, and it’s future was brighter than a bright thing. Buenos Aires was one of the great cosmopolitan cities of the world.

then in 1930, it had a military coup and caught the Nationalist bug, and the economy started a relentless decline thats never stopped.
 
Depends who you ask
The likes of Janes or Wavell room will give you a wall of text and in depth analysis which amounts to Not realistically

If you ask Spider then yes, because all british officers are arrogant donkeys, who wouldnt indertake any sort of threat assessment and so A company of infantry just sitting around at the airfield and a few crappy fighters - couldn't stop a false flag 747 full of commandoes or defend against a special forces team landed in the dark at Mare Harbour who hike* from there and set up a motar base to bomb** the airfield stopping all activity in seconds.




*Yomp, tab, bimble as applicable

**Do mortars bomb or shell an area
Did Spider consider that there would have to be a complete failure of in foreign intelligence gathering for this to happen too. And...any Argentine SF would have to get passed the small group of highly belligerent Matlow pisstanks first?
 

Helm

MIA
Moderator
Book Reviewer
Depends who you ask
The likes of Janes or Wavell room will give you a wall of text and in depth analysis which amounts to Not realistically

If you ask Spider then yes, because all british officers are arrogant donkeys, who wouldnt indertake any sort of threat assessment and so A company of infantry just sitting around at the airfield and a few crappy fighters - couldn't stop a false flag 747 full of commandoes or defend against a special forces team landed in the dark at Mare Harbour who hike* from there and set up a motar base to bomb** the airfield stopping all activity in seconds.




*Yomp, tab, bimble as applicable

**Do mortars bomb or shell an area
Don't forget the flat terrain
 
Another attempt to purchase military combat aircraft?


I put a funny as Argentina seems to like to go to the showrooms, go for a test drive, try and out orders in but then turn up with no dough!

Same story - but different hardware. They’ll run out of potential suppliers in a minute!
 
Why does Argentina need to spend $664m on 12 fighters? Its adversaries are basically UK and Chile. The border with Chile is over 3000 miles long. 12 fighters aren’t exactly going to saturate that, and in any case the Chileans have 3x as many F-16s.

Use against Falklands would be predicated upon having a serviceable airfield to operate them from. Something that the UK could make quite difficult with TLAM. Not to mention the opposing forces on the Islands.

Seems like a colossal waste of money to me, a pointless chest-beating exercise for no gain.

I actually applaud New Zealand for having got rid of their FJ fleet, there was basically no threat to defend against.
 
Why does Argentina need to spend $664m on 12 fighters? Its adversaries are basically UK and Chile. The border with Chile is over 3000 miles long. 12 fighters aren’t exactly going to saturate that, and in any case the Chileans have 3x as many F-16s.

Use against Falklands would be predicated upon having a serviceable airfield to operate them from. Something that the UK could make quite difficult with TLAM. Not to mention the opposing forces on the Islands.

Seems like a colossal waste of money to me, a pointless chest-beating exercise for no gain.

I actually applaud New Zealand for having got rid of their FJ fleet, there was basically no threat to defend against.

They’re to provide top cover to the Boeing 707 that will land at Mount Pleasant and deploy hordes of secret penguins



Ah, I’ve said too much already…
 
Why does Argentina need to spend $664m on 12 fighters? Its adversaries are basically UK and Chile. The border with Chile is over 3000 miles long. 12 fighters aren’t exactly going to saturate that, and in any case the Chileans have 3x as many F-16s.

Use against Falklands would be predicated upon having a serviceable airfield to operate them from. Something that the UK could make quite difficult with TLAM. Not to mention the opposing forces on the Islands.

Seems like a colossal waste of money to me, a pointless chest-beating exercise for no gain.

I actually applaud New Zealand for having got rid of their FJ fleet, there was basically no threat to defend against.
Hush now. Their economy is down the toilet. This purchase will send it all the way to the sewage farm.

Although what Pakistan will do with half a million tonne of corned beef is anyone's guess.
 
Another attempt to purchase military combat aircraft?

Chinese jets, made by Pakistanis, flown by Argentinians*.

I think the technical term is 'clay pigeons'.

Or is that my imperial arrogance speaking?


*Yes I know they were quite good in 1982, but that was four decades ago when they still had some panache - and capable friends.
 
If they want an air force on the (comparative) cheap and they're going all Mooslamic, they'd be better off with this:

 
Why does Argentina need to spend $664m on 12 fighters? Its adversaries are basically UK and Chile. The border with Chile is over 3000 miles long. 12 fighters aren’t exactly going to saturate that, and in any case the Chileans have 3x as many F-16s.

Use against Falklands would be predicated upon having a serviceable airfield to operate them from. Something that the UK could make quite difficult with TLAM. Not to mention the opposing forces on the Islands.

Seems like a colossal waste of money to me, a pointless chest-beating exercise for no gain.

I actually applaud New Zealand for having got rid of their FJ fleet, there was basically no threat to defend against.

On the other hand 12 aircraft would be enough to protect / police their airspace - which is a reasonable requirement. Its not as if they can take the ROI approach and rely on neighbours to do it for them.


Not that Argentina has the money to buy anything
 

RBMK

LE
Book Reviewer
Careful, the Argentines developed a semi-submersible Type 42....

1631906524901.png
 
Top