Failed Coup in Turkey: 15/07/2016

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by FailyScaley, Jul 15, 2016.

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  1. And risk am even bigger war? Arguably, CENTCOM arming the PYD/YPG foretells the (frightening) prospect of a contiguous Kurdish state from Iran to the Mediterranean.
     
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  2. Though exactly why it should be anymore frightening than the status quo escapes me. Merely replaces Sunni. I believe that Turkey sees it's self as the replacement Sunni state. Turkey sees possibilities in Europe and in the ME which replaced the old Ottoman. History will repeat itself, hence why Russia wants a foothold in Syria.
     
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  3. Which I think brings up the point that the end of IS isn't necessarily the end of the war. Aside from the fact that there's still the other rebels in Syria, the Kurdistan region of Iraq may make a bid for formal independence, possibly in association with the Kurdish region of Syria. This in turn could draw in involvement from Turkey as well as internal warfare in Iraq and Syria.

    If the above leads to much larger Turkish involvement in the war, that could result in even greater security crack downs within Turkey to deal with the consequences of it, and even greater concentration of power in the hands of Erdogan.
     
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  4. I happened to read this yesterday. There is some truth in it, however economically Turkey relies on Europe, and to a much lesser extent Russia. But Turkey isn't Erdogan. The economy, inflation and unemployment are inexorably linked as the main preoccupation of the public, as recently revealed in a series of reputable polls. . Erdogan's support is reducing, with most people who have been polled believing that the economy will worsen in the next 5 years. Security is not a pressing issue for 75% of respondents (although this is linked to the lack of terrorist attacks in the main cities - the last being on 1 January in Istanbul). As I've said before, the President has achieved popular support because he has trebled the incomes for the peasantry over the last 15 year, but now the economy is flat-lining (a bit) his support will surely plummet. Alienating German companies (lead FDI in Turkey) is not a clever move and it will backfire when Erdogan holds the presidential elections. In sum, 'its the economy, stupid'
     
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  5. I'm still getting 9% interest on my Turkish savings account :rolleyes:
     
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  6. All good points, the economy has always been a hugely important factor...in certain countries where there is an ‘electorate’.

    Erdogan would seem to have been trying to move to a point where he cannot be removed.
    Turkey’s Vote Makes Erdoğan Effectively a Dictator

    At that point, what the economic situation of the country is, and what the population thinks ceases to have a bearing.

    Zimbabwe and North Korea springing instantly to mind, though there are others. Their leaders have a pretty firm grim, the economic situations of both are dire, and their leaders have a mind set that doesn’t really seem in sync with the world around them.

    And while they are at the controls, those countries suffer the consequences.
     
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  7. The referendum was free but not particularly fair; and he got 'only' 52% of the population supporting him (a bit like BREXIT, then?). He lost the main cities and the liberal coast belt from Istanbul to Adana. He mobilised AKP activist last week by saying 'unless we regain Istanbul, we won't win the Presidential elections.' Meanwhile he is, at present, unlikely to win a free and fair presidential election. There are reported fractures developing within the usually united AKP, and the expected formation of a populist nationalist party, under a former Interior Minister Merel AKŞENER, could pose a huge political risk to Erdoğan and his party. His coalition allies, the bonkers ultranationalists MHP lead by bonkers Bahçeli, have no idea in what direct they are going and their supporters are likely to support Merel AKŞENER. This could be the end for Erdogan. Or not.
     
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  8. One wonders how Turkish foreign policy would be effected... if that were to transpire?
    This woman may be biggest opposition to Erdogan

    Not much seems to be known/stated on her stance towards the West.The MHP is the least known party in the West Not interested in minority rights, LGBT freedoms, Islamism or anything that hits the news...which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

    Small rather inward looking party supporting old style Turkish nationalism, calls for crushing pro-Kurdish terrorism but nothing really new. The former leader Devlet Bahceli didn’t seem to have much of a following

    Read more: Nationalist party may hold key to Turkey's political future
     
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  9. As an ex MHP MP, Merel AKŞENER is likely to be anti-anything that isn't Turkish, but certainly NOT pro-Islamist. As a former interior minister, she was very anti-Kurds and opposed restoration of the Kurdish language and backed very strong repressive measures. But as a politician, and a presidential hopeful, she will want to appeal to a wider voter-base than Erdoğan, which will, paradoxically, include the conservative Kurdish vote. She will also need to develop some credible policies on saving/growing the economy and counter Erdoğan's use of foreign policy as a domestic vote-winner. She is likely to attract the educated middle class who had previously saw Demirtaş of the pro-Kurdish liberal HDP as a sane alternative to Erdoğan. But Demirtaş's arrest and continued detention on terrorism charges has effectively decapitated HDP as a viable political party and they are likely to drop below the 10% of popular votes to take seats in the perfunctory National Assembly. Bahçeli - still head of MHP - is failing to lead a party that has not set direction or agreed policies and is also likely to fall below the 10% threshold.

    Interesting times, and by no means certain that Erdoğan will be President for Life.
     
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  10. Rather a large problem in Turkey one would think.
     
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  11. You mean Islamic-leaning Turks? I'm not sure it is the vote winner that we assume. Overwhelmingly the economy and unemployment is what seems to attract voter attention, as it does in most countries. When I was in Turkey most people I spoke with regarded religious beliefs as a very personal matter, and would be a bit embarrassed to discuss it (and, no doubt, worried they'd be labelled as Gulenists and therefore under threat of arrest). Never once was I ever challenged or felt threatened because of being a nominal Christian. Reporting of anti-New Year protests (on religious grounds) received a lot of media coverage in Turkey because it was so rare. Similarly attacks on women (actual and in social media) because of their Western dress are similarly rare and noteworthy because of this. The courts have taken a very dim view of this and awarded harsh sentences. In recent weeks there have been a number of attacks on statues of Kemal Ataturk; pretty pathetic attacks by 'shouting at pigeons' insanlar. Again reported because of their rarity.
     
  12. This latest news won’t be doing much for US Turkish relations.
    US troops return fire after attack by Turkish-backed rebels in Syria

    Sadly it has become increasingly complex in Syria even as daesh begin to become contained. Turkey and their position with the Kurds, the future in Syria with regard to the various factions concerned. The Russians and their sponsorship of Assad, the US and their sponsorship of the YPG who at the time were the most effective counter to daesh.

    Direct conflict is and has always been a possibility between all the parties presently involved, and as we saw with the Turkish shoot down of a Russian fighter, can happen very quickly.

    While it would seem the US has tried to concentrate on daesh, understandably Turkey Syria the Kurds and Iran are all looking longer term, into a very murky crystal ball.
     
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