Failed Coup in Turkey: 15/07/2016

Half a million Turks say 'Enough' to Erdogan on social media
1/2M Turkish Twitter users say 'enough' apparently. 82% average turnout for voting is high, but 0.5M out of 55M or so registered voters isn't exactly a great deal. Then again, how many of the (est) 55M registered are Twitter users?

E2A: More than a million Turks say 'Enough' to Erdogan on social media
Now a million:
More than a million Turks piled onto social media to call time on President Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, making the word “Tamam” (“Enough”) a trending topic worldwide after he promised to step down if the people wanted it.

“If one day our nation says ‘enough’, then we will step aside,” he said in a speech in parliament.
Apparently it’s ‘bots’, PKK and FETO (Gulen) according to Erdogan’s govt:
The government, however, dismissed the social media wave, which had accumulated close to 1.5 million posts by Tuesday night, saying the posts were sent by online bots associated with Kurdish PKK militants and Fethullah Gulen, the U.S.-based Muslim cleric blamed by Ankara for a 2016 failed coup attempt.


“Most are being sent from countries where the FETO and PKK are active. Most are bot accounts. We can also understand Greece, but what about those inside (Turkey),” said Mahir Unal, spokesman for Erdogan’s ruling AK Party.
 
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Just announced (cribbed from Financial Times this morning) - Erdogan to visit London next week. An Audience with the Queen - what could go wrong?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan to start 3-day UK trip on Sunday
May faces criticism over Turkish president meeting Queen and PM

Laura Pitel in Ankara and Henry Mance in London

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president of Turkey, is due to visit London on Sunday for a three-day visit in the midst of a contentious Turkish election campaign.

The Turkish leader, who is seeking to extend his rule for five more years, is scheduled to meet the Queen and will see Theresa May, the prime minister, on Tuesday.

Mrs May is likely to face criticism for choosing to proceed with the visit, which was planned before Mr Erdogan called snap elections last month, after warnings by the Turkish opposition and human rights groups about the fairness of the campaign.

The Turkish president, who has dominated Turkish politics for more than 15 years, is accused by critics of increasing authoritarianism.

If Mr Erdogan wins another term in office on June 24, Turkey’s system of governance will be transformed from a parliamentary system to a presidential one that will radically increase his powers.

The elections, which include a parliamentary poll as well as the presidential vote, will take place under a state of emergency that limits public assembly and freedom of expression.

The opposition politician Selahattin Demirtas, who has been chosen as the presidential candidate for the leftist, Kurdish-dominated People’s Democratic party (HDP), will campaign from a jail cell. He has been behind bars for the past 18 months on charges of terrorism and insulting Mr Erdogan.

Turkey and the UK have long enjoyed a close relationship. But the two countries have grown closer since Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the Turkish coup attempt of July 2016, which came just three weeks after the Brexit vote.

Ankara accused the US and many EU countries of being slow to condemn the attempted putsch, which saw rogue fighter jets bomb the Turkish parliament and tanks crush civilians in the streets.

The UK, by contrast, was one of the first countries to speak out against the insurrection. Since then, Britain has become of Turkey’s closest western allies, while Mr Erdogan has faced harsh criticism from EU leaders and Washington over his response to the coup attempt.

British diplomats say UK officials and ministers regularly raise concerns about human rights and the rule of law with Turkey but do so in private.

Turkey’s long borders with Syria and Iraq make the country a vital ally for the UK in counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing. Turkey is also hosting 3.5m Syrian refugees. London and Ankara are also working to expand their co-operation on trade and defence.

The UK government’s warmth towards Mr Erdogan is in stark contrast to the Brexit campaign, where he and Turkey were singled out for criticism by Brexiters. The official Out campaign, Vote Leave, raised concerned about Turkish immigrants, and used footage of a brawl in the Turkish parliament in one of its ads.

Michael Gove, now the environment secretary, said Mr Erdogan had put Turkish democracy “into reverse” and said the EU should be “protesting in the clearest and loudest possible manner at this erosion of fundamental democratic freedoms”. Mr Gove is not expected to meet Mr Erdogan during his three-day trip to the UK.

Caroline Lucas, the Green party leader, said Mr Erdogan’s visit showed that the UK government of being “increasingly willing to cosy up to repressive leaders from across the world”. Since the Brexit vote, Mrs May has also been criticised for hosting the Malaysian prime minister Najib Razak and the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman. Donald Trump is due to make a working visit in June.

The UK claims to have developed a stronger relationship with Turkey than any other European country. Junior foreign minister Alan Duncan effectively endorsed President Erdogan by visiting the country just days after the July 2016 coup attempt.

Britain is short of close allies in the Middle East; it is also hoping to convince Turkey to buy Roll-Royce engines for its TF-X fighter jets. “[Erdogan] is in a very dangerous part of the world,” said one senior British government figure. “You can’t ignore him.”
 
So we have My LIttle Pony Trot led media frenzy President Trumps visit as a democratically elected leader of a free country, while Erdogon slips in without a murmur.....bias much!!!

YM
 
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Turkey has threatened to ‘retaliate’ if it does not get the F-35.
Turkey May Buy Russian Su-57 Jets, If Delivery of F-35 Jets Suspended - Reports

Oh dear, that is really worrying.

But Russia may well be delighted, they were a little short of funds for it when India decided to pull out of that particular mess.
This appears to the the original source the story is based on. This is apparently a very pro-Erdogan Turkish newspaper.
S-400'den sonra SU uçakları

The story is Turkish language only, but Google Translate can give you the gist of it.

In general, the story seems to be that Turkey is looking at what options are available if the US refuses to deliver F-35s to Turkey. I should add that the S-400 missile system is not the only source of friction between the US and Turkey. Trump's pulling out of the nuclear deal with Iran is also discussed as an example of how the US can't be trusted to not renege on their deals.

Russian SU-57 (T-50) is listed as one alternative. The Typhoon from the UK is mentioned as another. China is mentioned as well, but not any specific plane.

Overall, the basic thrust of the story is that Turkey cannot necessarily trust the current government in Washington and needs to be prepared to look at other options if the F-35 deal falls apart because of deteriorating relations. This should really be of no surprise.

There is nothing indicating that Turkey is looking seriously at the SU-57, just that it's an option. The SU-35 is also mentioned. There is mention that Russia may offer very favourable technology transfer terms to the Turkish domestic arms industry, which is a factor the Turks are keen on.

It should also be remembered that the Turks also have their own TFX fighter program. They may decide to put all their eggs in that basket, although the story doesn't suggest that.
 
This appears to the the original source the story is based on. This is apparently a very pro-Erdogan Turkish newspaper.
S-400'den sonra SU uçakları

The story is Turkish language only, but Google Translate can give you the gist of it.

In general, the story seems to be that Turkey is looking at what options are available if the US refuses to deliver F-35s to Turkey. I should add that the S-400 missile system is not the only source of friction between the US and Turkey. Trump's pulling out of the nuclear deal with Iran is also discussed as an example of how the US can't be trusted to not renege on their deals.

Russian SU-57 (T-50) is listed as one alternative. The Typhoon from the UK is mentioned as another. China is mentioned as well, but not any specific plane.

Overall, the basic thrust of the story is that Turkey cannot necessarily trust the current government in Washington and needs to be prepared to look at other options if the F-35 deal falls apart because of deteriorating relations. This should really be of no surprise.

There is nothing indicating that Turkey is looking seriously at the SU-57, just that it's an option. The SU-35 is also mentioned. There is mention that Russia may offer very favourable technology transfer terms to the Turkish domestic arms industry, which is a factor the Turks are keen on.

It should also be remembered that the Turks also have their own TFX fighter program. They may decide to put all their eggs in that basket, although the story doesn't suggest that.
Yenisafak is a rabidly pro-government Eurasianist newspaper, but sometimes seen as the unofficial Gazette. The Turks have had reservations for years about the F-35, fearing (probably rightly) that on some missions the 'Computer says No'. Nonetheless, the aerospace industry has invested heavily in partnership programmes and up to 50% of the purchase price comes back to Turkey with various industry offsets - and the European Engine Overhaul Facility is being built in Turkey.

EF Typhoon would be an interesting option and 10 years ago there was a concerted campaign to sell it to Turkey. But there could be problems with some of the Eurojet partner countries selling the EJ200 to Turkey (which also contains a few ITAR-controlled components). Turkey, as part of her Defence Industrial Strategy, would require IP transfer and co-industrialisation of any deal, but given that this has been agreed between UK and Turkey at PM-President level for TFX, this would be possible, and it would also involve both BAES and RR, both of whom have a significant in-country presence.

But S400 remains a sticking point. The Russian variant has considerable ESM capabilities and I am sure that many countries would be unhappy operating weapons systems in Turkey if S400 was in the collect mode (and the concern that the Russians would be able to get remote acess to any systems they were to sell to Turkey).

.
 
Overall, the basic thrust of the story is that Turkey cannot necessarily trust the current government in Washington and needs to be prepared to look at other options if the F-35 deal falls apart because of deteriorating relations. This should really be of no surprise.
What is not a surprise is that Turkey’s behaviour has created a lot of mistrust in Washington. The feelings, one will say, are are reciprocated. The difference being that Washington is not about to receiving cutting edge technology from Turkey, whereas Turkey is, and would then be in a position to compromise a major weapon not only the US, but of every country that would be receiving the F-35.

this is nothing more than a pernicious piece of Russian propaganda designed to further drive a wedges between Turkey and the U.S. And it's working.
Turkey has done quite enough, without that piece of ‘pernicious’ propaganda, to drive the proverbial coach and horses through the gap created by multiple actions by Erdogan over the last couple of years.

Turkey’s action in seeking a major weapon system from Russia designed specifically to counter the F-35 would also seem a betrayal of its status as a NATO ally, and the first such action of its kind. The fact that it could possibly be used by Russia to compromise the F-35 is a major cause for concern for all countries about to receive it as, you yourself (@Crash) has just highlighted.

But S400 remains a sticking point. The Russian variant has considerable ESM capabilities and I am sure that many countries would be unhappy operating weapons systems in Turkey if S400 was in the collect mode (and the concern that the Russians would be able to get remote acess to any systems they were to sell to Turkey).
As for aircraft procurement.
It should also be remembered that the Turks also have their own TFX fighter program. They may decide to put all their eggs in that basket, although the story doesn't suggest that.
They may have to, unless they go with a Chinese...or Russian stealth type. They almost certainly have already profited from the present participation in the F-35 program to date.

The undeniable fact remains that Turkey has only itself/Erdogan to blame for this present state of affairs with both the F-35, and the EU’s understandable reluctance to grant them the EU membership they want.
 
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What is not a surprise is that Turkey’s behaviour has created a lot of mistrust in Washington. The feelings, one will say, are are reciprocated. The difference being that Washington is not about to receiving cutting edge technology from Turkey, whereas Turkey is, and would then be in a position to compromise a major weapon not only the US, but of every country that would be receiving the F-35.

Turkey has done quite enough, without that piece of ‘pernicious’ propaganda, to drive the proverbial coach and horses through the gap created by multiple actions by Erdogan over the last couple of years.

Turkey’s action in seeking a major weapon system from Russia designed specifically to counter the F-35 would also seem a betrayal of its status as a NATO ally, and the first such action of its kind. The fact that it could possibly be used by Russia to compromise the F-35 is a major cause for concern for all countries about to receive it as, you yourself (@Crash) has just highlighted.


The undeniable fact remains that Turkey has only itself/Erdogan to blame for this present state of affairs with both the F-35, and the EU’s understandable reluctance to grant them the EU membership they want.
Agreed!
 

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