Failed Coup in Turkey: 15/07/2016

Mail Online today.Photos of knocked out Leo 2´s.They are 1970´s models apparently.i am no expert on tanks but they are the slab sided model probably a least one or two upgrades ago?Suprising as I understood the turks were offering a state of the art upgrade as a potential Leo 3 for sale?
 
Mail Online today.Photos of knocked out Leo 2´s.They are 1970´s models apparently.i am no expert on tanks but they are the slab sided model probably a least one or two upgrades ago?Suprising as I understood the turks were offering a state of the art upgrade as a potential Leo 3 for sale?
As I pointed out in a related thread, these photos date from late 2016 and do not appear to be from the current fighting in Afrin Province. As far as I am aware, not Turkish armour has entered Afrin yet - no doubt cognisant of their losses o Op Euphrates Shield, ivo Al-Bab and Carabalus.
 

A Turkish soldier waves a flag on Mount Barsaya, northeast of Afrin, Syria January 28 ,2018. REUTERS/ Khalil Ashawi
Wasn't there some outrage in 2003 for the US raising the stars and stripes in Iraq? Anyway, as I understand it the forces currently fighting are seizing the key objectives prior to the main body coming in to do battle.
Turkey orders 13 detained for online opposition to Syria offensive, ne
13 more arrested protesting against the operation:
Among the 13 people targeted by the latest detention warrants was the gay rights activist Ali Erol, who had tweeted “War is a public health problem. #WeStandWithTTB”, his organization said. Another person was detained after tweeting “War is death, destruction, blood and tears. #NoToWar”, other local media reported.

Authorities also raided the residence of a lawyer who had publicly read the statement from the medical association, a lawmaker from the main opposition said.

“They don’t want to let anyone breathe,” Baris Yarkadas, of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), said on Twitter.
Erdogan not only has to win this battle, but to be seen to win and to win decisively.
 
It's not going end well. Erdoğan is determined to confront the US, carried on by his rhetoric. Normally he is surpringly pragmatic but he is fighting for his survival. Rumour has it he will called the presidential election in July and is working back from that date. He needs to get 50% + 1 vote to remain in power (with his new powers) but his support was sitting at about 42% prior to OLIVE BRANCH; he will use the surge of patriotism and nationalism to ride the electoral wave and secure the presidency (potentailly for another 10 years). If he is unsuccessful he loses his state immunity and will face numerous corruption and ML investigations. Allegedly.

And I can't see the US allowing theor troops to potentially confront Turkish Allies, although Lt Gen Metin Temel who commands the operation is a stubborn chap and known for his anti US views. Allegedly
It may not be up to the US allowing so much as Turkish intransigence and determination to confront that may cause an unfortunate incident. The shooting down of a Russian aircraft just one such example.
 
There's every probability of mis-read signs and accidents happening. Hence why the call from almost every country is for Turkey to de-escalate, but what does de-escalate mean?
 
Surges in popularity over external military ventures are often tempered by casualty figures, and the Kurds have proved to be rather effective fighters. Erdogan may have an interesting time ahead.
 
There's every probability of mis-read signs and accidents happening. Hence why the call from almost every country is for Turkey to de-escalate, but what does de-escalate mean?
The fundamental problem is that the Turks have a very different set of interests than the Americans do. The Americans are primarily interested in a) the security of oil supplies from the region, and b) ensuring there are are no strong countries in the region who could pose a threat to Israel. The destruction of IS and the Balkanization of Syria will satisfy those goals quite handily.

The Turks on the other hand are primarily interested in ensuring that there are no hostile states or pseudo-states on their southern border which could pose a threat to Turkey, either directly or indirectly. Ideally they would like a client state who takes their marching orders from Ankara, but will settle for control of a buffer zone in northern Syria. Under no conditions do they want to see an independent Kurdish state or Kurdish autonomous region.

The general direction things have been taking in recent months has been more favourable to the Americans and less so to the Turks, hence the Turks being rather upset.

It is still possible for the Americans to salvage relations with Turkey. The Americans can suddenly discover to their shock and dismay that the Kurds they have been backing are "terrorists", blame their previous policy on some suitable scapegoats, and start bombing the Kurds instead (or give their blessing to the Turks doing it). That hasn't happened so far because the Kurds are still useful to them.

The main obstacle though is that neither the US nor Turkey have come out with a credible plan to come to arrive at a stable end state in Syria that doesn't involve carving the country up into spheres of interest or occupied buffer zones. And so the war continues.
 
There's every probability of mis-read signs and accidents happening.
Bearing in mind Euphrates Shield and Turkey already telling the US what their strike plan is, the issues are being mitigated. Accidents can happen of course.
Hence why the call from almost every country is for Turkey to de-escalate, but what does de-escalate mean?
I know you 'dislike' the YPG but frankly everybody else from the Iraqi Army and SAA were running away from IS. Who was actually standing firm? The YPG element of the SDF have done very well and once again with Turkey attacking their positions, their attacks and advances against IS are slowing down.

The Syrian civil war is a pigs ear. Assad and the Russians say he has control of 90% of the country. If the SDF control on or around 25% somebodies maths needs examining. The SAA and their allies are attacking rebels in Idlib in the 'de-escalation zones' that Erdogan guaranteed. He's not going to go against Sy govt forces so he picks on what he perceives to be the weak element that he can get loads of praise from at home. The Sy govt and allies are also attacking SDF positions east of the Euphrates and the coalition is striking back. They're doing little about the IS pockets in their controlled' territory and seem more intent on gassing civilians than actually coming to the peace table, whether its in Astana or under the UN.

Erdogan can't 'de-escalate', not without losing face. He's p'eed off most of the major European players calling them all kinds of names and spinning his rhetoric. He's eaten humble pie with Putin after he didn't get the US support he thought he would when he shot down the Su 24, which was attacking the same Tr sponsored FSA he's using now. As for the 'coup' ....... His anti US rhetoric is as bad imo as that of some posters.

The common factor in this particular area remains Erodgan and the sooner the Turks get rid of him, the better.
 
Medical association to lose Turkish tag over criticism of Syria campai
Meanwhile, for having the audacity to criticise Erdogan's latest offensive, he's apparently changing the law so that the Turkish Medical Association is going to have 'Turkish' removed from their name:
“This institution has nothing to do with Turkishness and nothing about them is worthy of the notion of Turkishness,” Erdogan said in a speech on Thursday.

A new law will ensure the group “will not be able to use the notion of Turkishness, nor the name Turkey,” Erdogan said.
They're obviously unhappy with his statement:
The Turkish Medical Association, known locally by its initials TTB, represents 80 percent of the nation’s doctors. The group said the right to call itself “Turkish” was enshrined in the constitution and reflected its service to the public good.

“The comments made to discredit the TTB are met with sadness and amazement by conscientious, civilised people,” it said in a statement. “We maintain our stance of being in favour of life and peace today, as we did in the past.”
Sounds like 'no dissent' is the order of the day.
 
Turkish warplanes strike Kurdish militia targets in Syria - army
Turkish planes back in the air after a brief hiatus with the shoot down of the Russian Su 25 by ToS. Lots of 'he said she said' on the casualties, allegations of so many since the latest fighting began,the bottom line as reported by SOHR (I know) are 7 YPG and 2 civilians with the Turks admitting one of their soldiers has been killed in a separate rocket attack by the PKK:
The air strikes destroyed 19 targets including ammunition depots, shelters and gun positions, the armed forces said in a statement without specifying when they were conducted. The raids began at midnight, state-run Anadolu news agency said.

The raids killed seven YPG fighters and two civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based group that monitors the war.

Separately, a soldier was killed in the southeastern province of Hakkari at the border with Iraq, in a rocket attack by Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants, the Turkish military said in a statement.

A Kurdish official and top member of Afrin’s civil administration, Hevi Mustafa, said the Turkish offensive had killed 160 people, including 26 children and 17 women, so far. The attacks have displaced around 60,000 people, she added.

“This has created a humanitarian crisis, because the capacities of the region are not enough to meet the needs of this massive displacement,” she told a news conference.
The Czar and the Sultan have had a little chat:
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone on Thursday and agreed to strengthen military and security service coordination in Syria, according to the Kremlin.
 
In response to Erdogans threat to attack Manjib two senior American generals came to the front line outside the Syrian city of Manbij last Wednesday in the first visit by such senior United States military officers to the front in northern Syria.

Overrun by Islamic State militants the United States and its allies, Syrian Kurdish fighters, collaborated more than a year ago to evict them.

Maj. Gen. Jamie Jarrard, Special Operations commander for the American-led coalition in Iraq and Syria and overall coalition commander Lt. Gen. Paul Funk made a clear statement. “Hit us, and we will respond aggressively.”

The relationship between the Americans and Manbij Military Council is comfortable and cordial. The Americans praising its efforts to restore a stable government. General Funk message to the military council’s commander, Muhammed Abu Adel was “The lasting defeat of ISIS is the most important mission for this group.”

When the Americans announced they were forming a 30,000-strong permanent border protection force in Kurd-held areas as a long-term way to fight ISIS, using the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Turks responded with an offensive against Afrin, threatening to continue across northern Syria.

It is a situation that seems a continuation of Erdogan’s face off with various of his NATO partners and one which contains the possibility of a clash that could escalate.
On Northern Syria Front Line, U.S. and Turkey Head Into Tense Face-off

Further dialogue to follow.
Turkey and US to hold SHOWDOWN talks following escalation of WAR of words over Syria
 
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HR McMasters is meeting senior officials in İstanbul today, next week Tillerson is meeting Çavuşoğlu in Ankara and Defence Minister Canikli is having a bilateral with Matt is and will be sitting next to Gavin Williamson in a NATO Defence Ministerial. Moreover, the rhetoric has softened. This week Çavuşoğlu talked of keeping the door open to the US and offered to rebuild trust. I don't think we're about to see US and Turkish troops (or TBO) slogging it out. But the US is in a bind....as I mentioned earlier, the UK has skilfully avoided being caught up in this spat, due to some pretty deft diplomacy and skilful management of expectations.
 
Turkish helicopter shot down by Kurdish militia in Syria's Afrin: Erdo
Turkey confirms loss of helicopter and two crew in Afrin. How is not known yet:
YPG sources separately confirmed the downing of the helicopter.

“One of our helicopters was downed just recently,” Erdogan said speaking to members of his AK Party (AKP) in Istanbul. “These things will happen, we are in a war... We might lose a helicopter, but they’ll pay the price for this.”

The Turkish military in a statement did not specify a reason for why the helicopter fell. It said two soldiers on board died and technical crews were investigating the crash.
Turkey detains 48 suspected Islamic State members: Anadolu
In other news Turkey has arrested some alleged IS individuals. One of the problems with the demarcation lines between Tr sponsored FSA, SAA and allies and the YPG is the gaps through which IS militants and supplies travel.
 
Erdoğan stated that the ATAC helicopter was shot down (method unknown).
Erdogan says many things and some people even believe him. The statement from the Turkish military is currently silent on how the loss occurred:
The Turkish military in a statement did not specify a reason for why the helicopter fell. It said two soldiers on board died and technical crews were investigating the crash.
 
Erdogan says many things and some people even believe him. The statement from the Turkish military is currently silent on how the loss occurred:
He certainly does say lots of things. Which is one thing the TGS never do. Their paranoid secrecy is legendary. İbrahim Kalın, his foreign policy advisor, currently meeting with McMaster in İstanbul confirmed it in a tweet. Pity the poor crew.
 
Friend or foe? Assad quietly aids Syrian Kurds against Turkey
The can of worms has many levels. Apparently the Kurds have reached agreement with the Damascus govt to allow reinforcements:
Lacking international protection, the Kurdish-led forces in northern Syria say they have reached agreements with Damascus to allow reinforcements to be sent to Afrin from other Kurdish-dominated areas -- Kobani and the Jazeera region.

“There are different ways to get reinforcements to Afrin but the fundamental route is via regime forces. There are understandings between the two forces ... for the sake of delivering reinforcements to Afrin,” Kino Gabriel, spokesman for the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said.

While the Kurds depend on Assad to reach Afrin, Kurdish sources say they also enjoy leverage over Damascus because it needs their cooperation to source grain and oil from areas of the northeast under Kurdish control.

A commander in the military alliance fighting in support of Assad said “the Kurds have no option but coordination with the regime” to defend Afrin.

“The Syrian regime is helping the Kurds with humanitarian support and some logistics, like turning a blind eye and allowing Kurdish support to reach some fronts,” said the commander, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
 

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