No idea, but like any physical activity: make sure you go in with a positive mental attitude and are ready to commit fully (really think about what that means before the run) and you'll be just fine. Theres no other way you can have any influence on your selection, other than pissing off the DS, so good luck and don't worry about the statistics.
Edited for spelling like someone from botton (look it up on youtube, Barry is the best).
I went to Glencourse at the end of Jan. There were nearly forty lads in my group to start with. I would say that about 8 failed selection. Most of them were deferred for medical reasons. I say deferred and not failed. Majority had to go home and have further tests by doctor/optician etc. Only a couple of lads failed due to effort though. The best advice I can give is try to give 110% when you are there. I know this sounds corny but its true. One lad did the 1.5 mile run and collapsed when he finished it, no bull. His time was over the allowed time, but they knew he gave it all he could and he passed selection. Just try your best and dont piss off the corporals and you should be fine. Another piece of advice is when they tell you to be up by 6 o'clock, dont count on them waking you up. Get yourself and your room up. Trust me on this one. We got BOLLOCKED!!!
Of the 40 people at my selection, only one person actually "failed". Three where medically deferred, two more dropped out for some reason (I don't know why) and everyone else passed (Which seemed to be of great surprise to the RSM who gave us the final briefing).
I felt really bad for the person who failed. He'd bigged himself up majorly claiming he was going to get 9 minutes during the icebreaker. He was in front of me during the 1.5 mile run and you could see he was losing it from about 400m in. He suddenly stopped and did the old "I've hurt my leg" routine which was fooling nobody. A shame really as I suspected it was more a case of the embarrassment of not living up to his bravado than not being able to make it to the end.
My group was only of 28 or so, I think one or two were deferred on medical grounds, and two guys didn't make it to the end of the run, that was the last we saw of them, I can't say that they failed, they may have just been deferred to get their fitness up to scratch. One guy was also going for the Paras but didn't make the necessary run time, although he was given plenty of other options. Otherwise I know a couple of guys were deferred for being too quiet during the team-taks/icebreaker, so try to avoid mumbling, and control your nerves when you're in those activities.
Around half got defered when i went and mostly because of team tasks,
as did i but i dont really think i should of with the effot i put in, but oh well.
Hopefully that wont happen to you or me the 2nd time round.
Well its kinda hard to explain, maby another arrser can help me out. But just make sure you put in 100% effort and encourage all your team members and do everything as quick as you can without failing the task.
Oh and make a good plan.
The team tasks are always the same it seems, regardless of which ASDC you attend. The team tasks involve moving from point A to point B (Sometimes having to pick equipment upn along the way) using the supplies and equipment you are given while observing a certain set of conditions such as not touching the floor or only having a certain number of men in any one area at a certain time. You are usually pitted in a race against another team although it is not technically a race.
I can't be specific beyond this because it would destroy the purpose of the task which is to see how well you cope as a team and how well you implement instructions and a plan.
The only advice I can give you for the team tasks are...
a) Have a plan and make sure you put it out there amongst your team.
b) Be very careful and make sure the person who is marking you notices you and what your saying. Many a chap has failed because the person marking him didn't hear what that person had to say.
c) Provide encouragement if your stumped for something to say or do. Loud is good but not necessarily always better as sometimes you can get to loud to hear yourselves think.
d) Stay calm and focused. I fcuked up our last team exercise just as we where about to finish it because I stepped into a disallowed area to get a better view of the last person off the area.
e) Remember it's technically not a race, they pit two teams off against each other to put some pressure on you. It also does not matter if you pass the actual exercise or not. It's merely an instrument to see how well you performed during the test.