F-35 production question...

Turkey is up shit creek, and I anticipate their withdrawal from NATO in the near future. They misjudged this one pretty badly.
So is Russia, which makes Turkeys pivot all the more puzzling. Does Turkey want to pay for the F35 at all, their nearest threats are Greece/Russia, both of which are economically in the Toilet and don't currently have stealth, and the F16 are capable enough against. A calculated play at getting it far enough down the track that Turkey still gets to produce components without having to pay for the actual finished product??!!

Lucky they only have 3 in the US, I imagine a lot of people would have having kittens if there was any chance of Vlads people crawling all over it to make an F35ski.

F-35 jet program will fail without Turkey's support, President Erdogan says
 
So is Russia, which makes Turkeys pivot all the more puzzling. Does Turkey want to pay for the F35 at all, their nearest threats are Greece/Russia, both of which are economically in the Toilet and don't currently have stealth, and the F16 are capable enough against. A calculated play at getting it far enough down the track that Turkey still gets to produce components without having to pay for the actual finished product??!!

Lucky they only have 3 in the US, I imagine a lot of people would have having kittens if there was any chance of Vlads people crawling all over it to make an F35ski.

F-35 jet program will fail without Turkey's support, President Erdogan says
I don’t think the Turks are going be able to maintain their F-16’s when the sanctions go into effect. Their economy is going to be crushed, and the Russians won’t bail them out. Edrogen has done a fine job, and really pissed quite a few people off over here.
 
...their nearest threats are Greece/Russia, both of which are economically in the Toilet and don't currently have stealth...
Nations don't need 'stealth' because someone else has it. They buy it because the opposition has advanced 'Anti-Access Area Denial' (A2AD) capabilities such as S400/S500 and decent fighters. To be honest, Low Observability is arguably less important than other '5th Gen' factors under most circumstances.

I don’t think the Turks are going be able to maintain their F-16’s when the sanctions go into effect...
Turkey produced most of their own F-16s and they're one of the biggest user of the type. Therefore, they have extensive support and expertise available, as well as a rich source of spares potentially available. I would argue that of all the F-16 customers out there, Turkey is best placed to keep a sizeable force going.

Remember that even Venezuela has managed to keep 2/3rds of it's remaining F-16 fleet in service despite a US embargo.

Regards,
MM
 
Nations don't need 'stealth' because someone else has it. They buy it because the opposition has advanced 'Anti-Access Area Denial' (A2AD) capabilities such as S400/S500 and decent fighters. To be honest, Low Observability is arguably less important than other '5th Gen' factors under most circumstances.



Turkey produced most of their own F-16s and they're one of the biggest user of the type. Therefore, they have extensive support and expertise available, as well as a rich source of spares potentially available. I would argue that of all the F-16 customers out there, Turkey is best placed to keep a sizeable force going.

Remember that even Venezuela has managed to keep 2/3rds of it's remaining F-16 fleet in service despite a US embargo.

Regards,
MM
Thank you for the heads up!
 
Thank you for the heads up!
My pleasure.

Remember that hitting Turkey with sanctions will also hurt some US industry and access to the Region, particularly the Black Sea.

Regards,
MM
 
Nations don't need 'stealth' because someone else has it. They buy it because the opposition has advanced 'Anti-Access Area Denial' (A2AD) capabilities such as S400/S500 and decent fighters.
Its not just a requirement for the capability though, its also the ability to pay for it, the death spiral of the Turkish Lira makes the £/$ rate look tame.

Turkey produced most of their own F-16s and they're one of the biggest user of the type. Therefore, they have extensive support and expertise available, as well as a rich source of spares potentially available. I would argue that of all the F-16 customers out there, Turkey is best placed to keep a sizeable force going.
Very interesting thanks, it looks to me like Turkey currently has no intention or need of forking out billions for F35 if they can cheaply support F16 and was merely after as a big a slice of the industrial pie as possible.

In addition to building center fuselages as a Northrop Grumman subcontractor, TAI is the single source for center fuselage metallic assemblies for F-35A, selected composite components for all F-35 variants, and is one of two sources for composite air inlet ducts for F-35A, and air-to-ground alternate mission pylons for all F-35 variants.

Oh dear for the USAF!
 
Its not just a requirement for the capability though, its also the ability to pay for it, the death spiral of the Turkish Lira makes the £/$ rate look tame...
Agreed; cost is central to everyone's military capabilities.

...Very interesting thanks, it looks to me like Turkey currently has no intention or need of forking out billions for F35 if they can cheaply support F16 and was merely after as a big a slice of the industrial pie as possible...
F-16s won't last for ever and, while it remains a credible airframe now, not procuring a replacement now will bite them as availability reduces with age.

Therefore, like most F-16 operators, they need to start looking for their next gen combat aircraft. Whether that's F-35, an indigenous type or alternative such as the Su-57, remains to be seen. However, given the range and scope of their security concerns, they'll want something decent.

Regards,
MM
 
My pleasure.

Remember that hitting Turkey with sanctions will also hurt some US industry and access to the Region, particularly the Black Sea.

Regards,
MM
I would plan on having limited access to the Black Sea from this point on. Relations with Turkey are going to nose dive, then they accept the S-400.
 
Turkey has been trying to achieve independence in indigenous engine technology, and Kale was in partnership with P&W for the F-35 engine, with Turkey going to be one of the main maintenance centres.

This now is looking increasingly unlikely. Also the deal between Kale and Roll Royce in
2017, when Kale said it would set up a joint venture with Britain’s Rolls-Royce to develop aircraft engines after a UK-Turkish defence deal worth more than 100 million pounds was signed to develop Turkish fighter jets, also seems in doubt.

Rolls-Royce has said it had scaled back efforts to join the Turkish program for its own indigenous 5th gen fighter. This due in part to a dispute over the sharing of intellectual property and involvement of a Qatari-Turkish company BMC. Turkey wanted Turkish defence manufacturer BMC inthe project, and Osman Dur, chief executive of BMC Power, the BMC subsidiary that has been working on the TF-X programme, had stated that all intellectual property rights gained in the project would remain in Turkey and belong to the Turkish government. A point, not unsurprisingly, of seeming contention so Turkey stands to lose more than just F-35’s in Erdogan's move to show NATO and the US whose boss.
Turkey's Kale eyes F-35 options during U.S. spat - Reuters

The SU-57 that Turkey has threatened it may turn to, is not in wide-scale service in Russia due in part, to it’s lack of a suitable power plant which the Russian’s are continuing to try and develop.
Russia's New Su-57 Stealth Fighter Has A Big Problem That Won't Be Fixed Until 2025

Turkey could turn to China, but there could be a bit of a problem there. China’s intellectual cyber theft of foreign designs has resulted in China’s fighter fleet having either borrowed or directly copied other countries hard won development. The J-10 on the Lavi/F16. The J-11 from the Su-27, the JF17 the MiG-21, the J-20 from the F-22, and the J-31 on technology stolen from the LM F-35.

This has saved China huge amounts of time and money on R&D, but there remains a rather large fly in the pudding. Vital technology gaps due to lack of testing data. This technology mismatch is due to the lack of trade secrets, and human capital necessary for manufacturing and assembly of any system. China needs to develop manufacturing procedures from the beginning, and this has lead to substandard components, and degradation of both capabilities and reliability of a product.

China's reverse engineering in the past has produced engines with short lifespans, lacking the power of the originals counterparts. Its latest 5th generation fighters are underpowered. Russia has been reluctant to supply engines more powerful than the AL-31 used to power its Su-27s but needs the money. China wanted the ALS-117 as a stand-alone product but Russia refused without the Su-35, so the PLAAF simply bought Su-35s from Russia.

The AL-41F1S/ ALS-117S in the SU-35 is a powerful thrust-vectoring engine and a huge jump up from the AL-31. Russia states that extensive protections safeguard the ALS-117 from Chinese reverse engineering but with China’s record this is doubtful. However China’s past difficulties with the WS-10, despite having the AL-31, does show that access does not immediately translate into ability to produce engines of similar quality.
China's Air Force Has One Big Problem It Can't Seem to Solve

So yes Turkey does have alternatives to look at, and both Russia and China do have interesting 5th Gen planes...but with a certain lack of ooomph that they are both still working on.
 
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Turkey’s responses to ‘requests’ that it cancel the S-400 deal have so far been that the deal has gone ahead, and, that to exclude Turkey from the F-35 will cause it to ‘collapse’ without Turkish participation.

This elephant in the room has been present for quite enough time for that not to be the case. With every passing day the impact of a Turkish embargo will have been a matter of major concern and it would seem reasonable to assume that though it will still impact the program the effect will be manageable.

The idea that various nation’s expensive purchase of the F-35 could be compromised by the actions of a seemingly dictatorial and uncertain NATO ally will have ensured support for the present US reluctance to release the plane to Turkey.

Turkey’s drift towards both Russia and China has not gone unnoticed, and while Turkey has threatened to turn to other 5th Gen? planes from Russia and possibly China, it is of interest that the US has other means of making both those uncomfortable should they supply Turkey. They may well have to depend on their F-16’s for a while longer. After all Iran is still making do with F-14’s and F-5’s.
U.S. could thwart Turkey, Russia and China in E. Med by lifting Cyprus arms embargo - scholars | Ahval
 
Putin having a wet dream moment at the idea that Turkey might bail out the SU-57 program has half the entire fleet escorting him for a ‘Kodak moment’ to show Erdogan that they actually fly.
WATCH Putin's Plane Be Escorted by Six Su-57 Jets on Way to Astrakhan Region

Probably hoping to get the lowdown on the P&W 135 which would probably do very nicely in them.
Meanwhile 380 x F-35 have been built!

Is much of this media hyperbole because anything the Turks do on F-35 is handed to them, they do not have any technology that cannot be manufactured elsewhere and I imagine at this point, losing them to the program wont have a substantially higher unit cost for the remaining allies?
 
...Is much of this media hyperbole because anything the Turks do on F-35 is handed to them, they do not have any technology that cannot be manufactured elsewhere and I imagine at this point, losing them to the program wont have a substantially higher unit cost for the remaining allies?
Erdogan it appears, seems not to be fully conversant with the fact that the F-35 program is not totally dependent upon Turkey.

Not to have Turkey will slow production, and will drive costs up. Turkish Aerospace Industries manufactures center fuselages as a second-source supplier, also makes weapon bay doors, mounting pylons, air inlet vents and other components. Ayesas supplies panoramic cockpit display, and missile remote interface units. Alp Aviation produces metal airframe structures , landing gear parts, and F135 engine components. Fokker Elmo Turkey (GKN), produces Electrical Wiring and Interconnection Systems (EWIS) for the F-35 and the F135 engine. But single source failure will have been a matter of concern and action for some time now as this issue has been building, so it would be very unlikely that this presently exists.

A further consideration for Erdogan could be, that should the F-35 not go to Turkey, then it would be likely that some of that part production presently done in Turkey would subsequently be done elsewhere.

There is however good news for Erdogan. President Vladimir Putin has just announced plans to buy 76 SU-57’s through 2028. The purchase order of an estimated value of $2.6 billion, will be the single largest aviation contract in Russian Air Force history, a big about face from the previous 12 ordered. He was obviously hugely impressed with its ability to escort him recently.
Russia to Procure 76 Su-57 Stealth Fighter Jets by 2028

An impressive turn of events due to a huge 20 percent reduction in unspecified costs which has allowed this significant increase. On May 16, 2019, the Kommersant newspaper in Russia report cited an unnamed defence industry source, explaining that this was the result of a change in the aircraft’s internal layout, as well as improvements in the production process due to lessons learned during the beginning of limited serial production.
A $2.63 billion covering 76 Su-57s would equate to a unit price of less than $34 million per jet. A bargain that Erdogan can hardly pass up.

Of course the sudden large order of 76 by Putin is nothing at all to do with the fact that the previous order of 12 was not very confidence inspiring. The huge surge of Russian confidence is obviously entirely due to the sudden breakthrough in engine performance, massive drop in price due to the spectacular improvements in production...and the moon is made of green cheese.

Now all that has to happen is lots of Putin's smoke has to be analy ingested by Erdogan.
 
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Nations don't need 'stealth' because someone else has it. They buy it because the opposition has advanced 'Anti-Access Area Denial' (A2AD) capabilities such as S400/S500 and decent fighters. To be honest, Low Observability is arguably less important than other '5th Gen' factors under most circumstances.
Genuine bone question; Why A2AD and not A3D ?

Just curious
 
The ramifications of Erdogan's moves towards Russia and China go further than the F-35, which he still believes he will get. It is now a question of whether Turkey remains in NATO, with NATO partners now increasingly wary of a country that has been for some time a problem child. Not having access to bases in Turkey will have an impact on U.S. operations but it is actively exploring ME and area alternatives.

The Iraq invasion in 2003 serves as an example that the Turkey can suddenly be awkward. It was major impediment to U.S. plans when Turkey denied the U.S. the right to use its terrain, but, it also served to show that the U.S. military can conduct missions in the region with, or without Turkey.

The U.S. present position shows that a red line has been drawn, and that the Pentagon is willing to bear the substantial costs should they have to do without Turkey for the F-35. Finding alternate suppliers for the parts which Turkey is now responsible for will increase unit costs for everyone. It will also cost Turkey as the F-35 program was good for both the Turkish economy and its industrial base, and, both Russian missile systems and SU-57’s, may be a step too far for NATO to swallow.
 
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Turkey’s ability to be a major F-35/NATO/US irritant has finally produced a deadline which has now been issued.

Acting Secretary of Defense Shanahan has given Turkey till the end of July 2019 to terminate the S-400 sale, or the US will begin a series of steps. This made clear to his Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar in a letter dated June 6, 2019. Further clarification then made by the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions and Sustainment Ellen Lord in a press conference on June 7, 2019.

In his letter, Acting Secretary of Defense Shanahan noted that the Pentagon's actions were separate from actions Congress was additionally looking at taking which including hitting the Turkish government with sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act which will effect Turkey who is also a partner on a number of other U.S. weapon system programs. All of which could additionaly become the target of further Congressional action.

Turkish pilots will be fully gone from the F-35 training program in the United States, the country's liaisons will be barred from entering the central Joint Program Office, and Turkish companies will begin to be cut permanently out of the international supply chain for the F-35.
“While we seek to maintain our valued relationship, Turkey will not receive the F-35 if Turkey takes delivery of the S-400,” stated Shanahan.

Meanwhile the U.S. government has disinvited Turkish representatives from the annual F-35 CEO Roundtable on June 12, 2019. There will also be no approval for additional Turkish personnel to come to the United States to train on the F-35, if Turkey isn't getting any Joint Strike Fighters, "there are no longer requirements to gain proficiencies on the systems." The Pentagon has blocked the delivery of any further F-35-related materials to Turkey, including two additional jets.

All Turkish personnel currently in the United States in relation to the F-35 program will have to leave the country by July 31, 2019. At that time, the U.S. military will cancel their credentials and they will no longer be able to get into Eglin or Luke Air Force Bases where various F-35-related training occurs. Turkish personnel will also be barred from the main Joint Program Office in Washington, D.C. At present there are 42 Turkish pilots including two instructor pilots taking part in F-35 flight training at Luke. Thirty-four may be able to complete their training by the July deadline, but if not, their access will be cut off.
DOD Sets Date to Begin 'Unwinding' Turkey From F-35 Program > U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE > Story

At immediate risk should Erdogan decide to go ahead and ignore the deadline could also be a $1.5billion deal between Turkey and Pakistan for the sale of 30 Turkish-made T129 ATAK helicopter gunships produced by Turkish Aerospace Industries under license from the Italian-British company AgustaWestland. The problem, U.S.-made parts for which TAI will need U.S. export licenses in order to finalise the deal. The Phillipine Govt had also expressed interest in buying some.

It is expected that there might be some delay to allow these attitude adjustment measures to be fully digested by Erdogan. God complexes can take time to absorb unpleasant information.
 
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