F-35 production question...

We all (know why) the USA was so against the old system of European “Colonies”, and the “unfair” advantages they brought to trade and the prosperity of those European countries.

It could be suggested, that the USA might re-evaluate its commitment to the (cost of the) defence of Europe, as the price necessary to maintain a presence within one of the USA’s most prosperous, sophisticated and compatible trading partners.

Many were relieved and overjoyed when the Warsaw Pact countries - and, the three Baltic States - were allowed to state their preferences and applied to join NATO (and the increasingly confused EU).

The traumatic wholesale (unresolved) changes to their nations’, countries, mindsets, economies, industries, societies, politics, can not - should STILL not - be underestimated !!

The “Peace Dividend” was a fcuking disaster!

I rejoice in the advent of “Cold War 2”.

It has thrown into focus, the real world dangers that Europe has always been subject to, and threatened by.

The USA should be aware that it is not a game of chequers that is been played. It has always been a game of chess.

Without the US committed to, and presence within, NATO; and, specifically without the US committed to, and presence within Europe; it is not inconceivable that the WHOLE of Europe could (eventually) fall under the greater influence of Russia :( .
The problem with European colonies flung all over the far reaches, is for another thread.

Sophisticated and compatible might be a bit of a stretch...Alien and assbackwards can be substituted more often then not. The relationship can best be described as business partners, we want your money and vice versa. I have no desire to be a European by any means. If you make something I like I will buy it, if not I won't waste my time and money on it. We are politically at the opposite ends of the spectrum, moving away from each other at Warp 3.

We are not playing checkers, we are playing poker. Western Europe does not like Trump or the United States very much, but we are to big to be ignored. The difference is that they are holding a pair of 5's while the United States has Aces and 8's...

Western Europe will do business with whomever gives them the best deal, look at the German and Russian relationship. But the future lies East.
 
I think it's really just a matter of balance. Turkey are undoubtedly difficult partners and I genuinely share some of your concerns regarding their access to F-35 if they're allowed to take them home. Equally, even in the age of Erdogan, I'd say it''s better to have them inside our tent pissing out than outside pissing in...to quote Mother Theresa! :)
It would appear that as negative as it may seem, there remain doubts about this situation and these have come up again, and as much as it would be desirable for them to remain as allies they are not making it easy. Even Mother T may have had limits, as saintly as she may have been.

It would seem that some deadlines have come and gone with regard to Turkey’s S-400 purchase. The US Patriot system had been offered instead of the S-400 however this could well be halted, along with the F-35’s
Pence: ‘We will not stand idly by’ as Turkey purchases S-400

Time enough has elapsed for some serious worries about the supply chain to have been resolved, and, other recent customers, to make up for a large order lost.

Even the EU has become a little disenchanted.
‘Change it now!’ Turkey FURIOUS as EU votes to STOP accession talks

Regrettably these are negative. But...it would seem, I am not alone. Recent circumstances and Turkey’s drift to new allies are clear to see.
WARNING TO TRUMP: Iran leader GLOATS with Putin and Erdogan as US pulls out of Syria

Is it strange that the Trump/US should wish to extricate itself from the Middle East toxic quagmire? The ME ‘Spring' has slowly become a rather bleak messy ‘Winter of discontent' with Democracy and Islam seemingly rather reluctant to mix.
 
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And the story makes it clear that for Turkey the issue is about price and technology, while for the US it is about finding things to which political strings can be attached.
Akhmetov said it was important for Turkey to “get as many modern technologies as possible … For Turkey's burgeoning defence industry, it is not only critical to be able to produce, but also to export new weapon systems,” he said.

Turkey has an issue, he said, “with European and U.S. governments trying to bind technical cooperation to political demands” which “means Turkey cannot replicate or resell weapon systems to third countries without the authorisation of the companies that make them.”

Akhmetov said the F-35 deal with Turkey, like the S-400, “is not only a defence project but also a commercial project.”
The US has refused both finance options and technology transfer, which pretty much kills the deal so far as the Turks are concerned.
The U.S. administration made its offer before Feb. 15, and then increased the price of the multi-billion dollar system in return for quick delivery, according to the officials who are familiar with the talks but not authorized to speak to the media. The proposal didn’t include a loan agreement nor a technology sharing pact, a key Turkish demand, they said.

Turkey said in its response that it can’t accept the U.S. offer and negotiations came to a standstill, the officials said.
The US had refused to sell Patriot missiles to Turkey for years, and only reversed themselves when Turkey reached a deal to buy S-400s instead.
Having balked for years at selling Turkey the Patriot system, the U.S. State Department notified Congress in December that it had proposed doing just that, a gambit designed to get Ankara to halt an agreement with Russia for a S-400-based system, which could compromise NATO technology.
If the Turks were to buy Patriots they would not only not get the commercial terms they want, they would also apparently be subject to the same sort of "strings attached" arm twisting that they are facing with F-35s. The more the US threatens Turkey with respect to American control over Turkey's F-35s, the less attractive the planes may start to appear to the Turks.
 
There now appears to be ongoing activity with regard to the question which has been hanging quietly for a while.

The head of American forces in Europe and top uniformed officer in NATO Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti has just said that if Turkey goes through with its decision to buy a Russian air defense system, he would recommend the Pentagon refuse to give Ankara its planned purchase of the F-35 joint strike fighter.

Testifying in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, stated that it would be his “best military advice" that sales to Turkey of the F-35 be cut, should that nation buy the S-400 air defense system.

This comes just weeks after the Munich Security Conference where U.S. Vice President Mike Pence warned Turkey that “we will not stand idly by while NATO allies purchase weapons from our adversaries. We cannot ensure the defense of the West if our allies grow dependent on the East."
Top US general in Europe: Don’t give Turkey F-35 if they buy Russian system

Even Iran appears interested.
 
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That there were serious problems in replacing suppliers for parts and services provided by Turkey was undeniable, that there have been serious efforts to rectify this to a degree now further confirmed by yesterdays report from Reuters.

Reuters a source considered least biased, based on objective and factual reporting, due to proper sourcing of information.
Exclusive: U.S. may soon pause preparations for delivering F-35s to Turkey | Reuters

The deterioration in relationships between Turkey and NATO, Turkey and the US, and Turkey and the EU has been increasingly apparent and as unfortunate as that is, it is continuing.

The world is in a serious state of flux, and with the increasingly connected world, and toxic news environment, coupled with ‘false news’ malicious propgandising, and trolling by certain countries it increasingly seems that no-one, and no country, seems immune to the growing instability that we presently see surrounding us.

The F-35 is possibly the worlds most expensive and comprehensive weapon system, involving most of whom could be considered the Free Worlds allies. The subject of whether it could be damaged or compromised is therefor a serious subject of great concern.
 
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There has always been an element of anti US/NATO sentiment in Turkey but this latest standoff will only be adding to it. This has been recognised in the US and they are reacting to it.
U.S. Lawmakers Talk Turkey to Ankara

And if there is growing doubt about Turkey receiving the F-35, this piece of news may not make them feel any better. Vice Admiral Mathias Winter, head of the Pentagon’s F-35 office, told Congress on Thursday that sales of the jets could be expanded to include five new countries – Singapore, Spain, Romania, Greece and Poland.
Pentagon eyes F-35 sales to Greece, Romania and Poland -U.S. official - Reuters

This was followed on Friday by by Defense Minister Evangelos Apostolakis suggesting it would be an important upgrading to the Greek Air Force.
Greece to examine F-35 acquisition, says defense minister | Kathimerini
 
There has always been an element of anti US/NATO sentiment in Turkey but this latest standoff will only be adding to it. This has been recognised in the US and they are reacting to it.
U.S. Lawmakers Talk Turkey to Ankara

And if there is growing doubt about Turkey receiving the F-35, this piece of news may not make them feel any better. Vice Admiral Mathias Winter, head of the Pentagon’s F-35 office, told Congress on Thursday that sales of the jets could be expanded to include five new countries – Singapore, Spain, Romania, Greece and Poland.
Pentagon eyes F-35 sales to Greece, Romania and Poland -U.S. official - Reuters

This was followed on Friday by by Defense Minister Evangelos Apostolakis suggesting it would be an important upgrading to the Greek Air Force.
Greece to examine F-35 acquisition, says defense minister | Kathimerini

I agree, Turkey has drifted away to the point of no return. It is time to make peace with that and treat them accordingly. It has bipartisan support, and nobody really likes or a gives a shit about Turkey anyway, so not much opposition will be felt.
 
Singapore have already signed for the initial few although I believe it has to get past the Senate first.

Of the others, I'd say that Poland is a dead cert, Romania unlikely and Spain will be cognisant that F-35B will be the only option that can keep them in the fixed wing carrier aviation game.

Central to that equation will probably be Australia whose Canberra LHDs are based on the Spanish San Juan design. If the RAAF or RAN decide to buy F-35B and follow Japan's example of converting a rotary wing carrier for STOVL, Madrid may follow suite and share modification R&D costs.

Regards,
MM
 
I agree, Turkey has drifted away to the point of no return. It is time to make peace with that and treat them accordingly. It has bipartisan support, and nobody really likes or a gives a shit about Turkey anyway, so not much opposition will be felt.
Paging @Crash . . . !! ;)
 
D

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To the US and the Pro-Consul CG CENTCOM, Turkey is some distant vaguely Middle Eastern country that sits on the fold of the map with EUCOM. However to Europe and the UK, it's the extended front line against trouble spreading from the Middle East terrorism, irregular migration, smuggling, narcotics, people trafficking...

It's no coincidence that the British Embassy is the largest in Europe by over 100 staff and has just about every Government department represented there. Erdogan may be unpalatable to many (and his love-in with Putin is uncomfortable) but geography doesn't change. Turkey controls the entrance to the Black Sea and borders Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Greece and Bulgaria and has a de facto border with the Republic of Cyprus. All in all, a tough neighborhood.
 

Mr._Average

Old-Salt
To the US and the Pro-Consul CG CENTCOM, Turkey is some distant vaguely Middle Eastern country that sits on the fold of the map with EUCOM. However to Europe and the UK, it's the extended front line against trouble spreading from the Middle East terrorism, irregular migration, smuggling, narcotics, people trafficking...

It's no coincidence that the British Embassy is the largest in Europe by over 100 staff and has just about every Government department represented there. Erdogan may be unpalatable to many (and his love-in with Putin is uncomfortable) but geography doesn't change. Turkey controls the entrance to the Black Sea and borders Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Greece and Bulgaria and has a de facto border with the Republic of Cyprus. All in all, a tough neighborhood.
Not to mention the growing relationship between Turkey and China with their joint agreements on China's 'Belt and Road' strategy...

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/china-welcomes-turkeys-participation-in-belt-and-road-partnership-137313
 
It would seem to be slowly sinking in that the F-35 may not be coming to Turkey.
Russia would be Turkey’s ‘first best choice’ for fighter jets if its F-35 plan flops

A comment made on the situation by a defence official was that Russian options would be their natural first replacement, if our US allies behave in an 'un-allied’ way. Turkey it appears feels that it however has behaved impeccably.

Problem being that the Russian Air Force is only taking 12 of them for the time being. The explanation given by Yuri Borisov making perfect sense? "You know that today the Su-57 is considered to be one of the best aircraft produced in the world," the deputy defence minister, told a T.V. audience in July 2018. "Consequently, it does not make sense to speed up work on mass-producing the fifth-generation aircraft.”???

India dropped out of the program in 2018 having become increasingly disappointed with the project's progress. Years of negotiations, delays, and disagreements with Russia along with disappointment with its capabilities and inefficient stealth design. This will of course allow the Turks to step up to the plate and help finance it.
 
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ankara could face retribution for the Russian missile deal under a sanctions law known as Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CATSAA).

Erdogan’s response, “The F-35 project will collapse without Turkey." An interesting statement given the number of Air Forces in various countries already operating them.
Erdogan says F-35 project would collapse without Turkey - Reuters

On August 2, 2017, President Trump signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. At the time, this specifically targeted Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

The law is a muscular, bipartisan statement that US Congress continues to view vigorous economic sanctions as a cornerstone of US foreign policy. Congress will play a leading role in restricting trade, sometimes in conflict with the president’s authority to conduct diplomacy.

Section of the law significantly expand the scope of the US sanctions regime, and require and receive careful review by both US and non-US companies. At present US sanctions on Iran are definitely catching Iran’s attention nationally, and, as intended having an effect on its funding of terror groups.
Iran’s Allies Feel the Pain of American Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions Biting Iran

Erdogan may not have paid much attention to possible further consequences of his cosying up to Russia. The EU has been pretty silent, but it seems he is now being served notice that there are other steps beyond the withholding of the F-35 that can be taken. Turkey has certainly progressed in the development of its indigenous defence industry, a particular ambition of Erdogan’s. But what Turkey labels as indigenous programs are in many cases heavily linked to foreign partnerships, and, almost always, include imported subsystems.

Under Erdogan’s leadership Turkey has seen its economy sinking, his party faced stinging defeats in mayoral elections in Ankara and Istanbul last month. Ankara has moved closer to Russia, but there’s little Russia can do to help Turkey overcome its economic crisis and save Erdogan. Russia itself is in bad economic shape and doesn’t have the financial resources to help. The Turkish threat to buy a Russian stealth fighter, that even the Russian Air Force is not yet operating, to replace the F-35, a bit of a sad joke.
 
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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Ankara could face retribution for the deal under a sanctions law known as Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CATSAA).

Erdogan’s response, “The F-35 project will collapse without Turkey." An interesting statement given the number of Air Forces in various countries already operating them.
Erdogan says F-35 project would collapse without Turkey - Reuters

On August 2, 2017, President Trump signed into law the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. At the time, this specifically targeted Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

The law is a muscular, bipartisan statement that US Congress continues to view vigorous economic sanctions as a cornerstone of US foreign policy. Congress will play a leading role in restricting trade, sometimes in conflict with the president’s authority to conduct diplomacy.

Section of the law significantly expand the scope of the US sanctions regime, and require careful review by both US and non-US companies. Present US sanction on Iran are definitely catching Iran’s attention nationally, and having an effect on its funding of terror groups.
Iran’s Allies Feel the Pain of American Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions Biting Iran

Erdogan may not have paid much attention to possible further consequences of his cosying up to Russia. The EU has been pretty silent, but it seems he is being served notice that there are other steps beyond the witholding of the F-35 that can be taken.
Turkey is up shit creek, and I anticipate their withdrawal from NATO in the near future. They misjudged this one pretty badly.
 

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