Exercise FORMIDIBLE SHIELD - 2021 NATO naval missile defence exercise

No ones going running up an opposed beach no more.

Very good
However we werent discussing if it would or wouldnt be done today, but rather that you asserted it was the silkworm threat - whereas the US states it was the Mine threat which concerned them the most.

The historical stuff you dismissed - was perhaps off topic - But You do recall I assume that there was a significant Amphib assault in 2003 and whilst i will agree it had little in common with saving private Ryan - the same capability existed** in 1991.

Tus my point that the fact the the coalition went for a deep thrust into Iraq ( thus leaving the majority of Iraqs forces swinging in the breeze* in kuwait) is rather more relevant as to why there was no Amphib assault than the threat of ASM or indeed mine warfare

As an aside one can only conclude Hussein was either no student of military history or like Hitler wedded to the idea of pride over land and convinced everyone else thought likewise (see Channel Islands - Hitlers massive investment in protecting them vs the UKs meh no strategic value no point wasting resources ignore for now


*To wither on the vine, up shit creek sns water propulsive implement, etc
** Give or take a few elements
 
You can run a Type 45 out of weapons... but it'll cost you a fair bit to do, and didn't you have other targets you needed to sink? There's a certain tendency to wargame RED as having endless supplies of all the munitions they want, when in reality they may not have a large stockpile (and not all of it may be serviceable and ready to use)

I suppose that was a factor in deciding to fit the T45s with only 48 of their possible 64 cells, but I wonder how much money that really saved at construction time vs the cost of getting them in to do it later, and probably with great urgency. The Arleigh Burkes are built with 96 cells from the start.
 
I suppose that was a factor in deciding to fit the T45s with only 48 of their possible 64 cells, but I wonder how much money that really saved at construction time vs the cost of getting them in to do it later, and probably with great urgency. The Arleigh Burkes are built with 96 cells from the start.
...96 cells, but what's the probability of a kill, and how many missiles do they normally fire at each target?

If a Type 45 typically fires one missile per target, but the USN typically fires two...
 
...96 cells, but what's the probability of a kill, and how many missiles do they normally fire at each target?

If a Type 45 typically fires one missile per target, but the USN typically fires two...
What’s the probability of a ASM hitting? What impact do decoys and other ah*t do?

As far as I can remember there’s only one missile system at sea that has successfully shot down an ASM successfully.

I’m not saying the systems aren’t capable. Just highlighting that there’s a lot more to it than playing a game of missile tennis.
 
What’s the probability of a ASM hitting? What impact do decoys and other ah*t do?

As far as I can remember there’s only one missile system at sea that has successfully shot down an ASM successfully.

Is there? I thought Sea Dart was out of service now.

It's notable that HMS Gloucester only fired one Sea Dart at the Silkworm in 1991, while USS Vincennes fired two SM-2 at Iran Air Flight 655 in 1988...
 
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jrwlynch

LE
Book Reviewer
What’s the probability of a ASM hitting?

A better question than you'd think. Way back in 1982, with very limited countermeasures available, AM39 Exocet had a 40% hit rate on anything (five fired, three misses), and a 0% hit rate on its intended targets (the RN's carriers). It's not easy to find targets, properly identify them, pick the one you want, properly target the missile(s) and launch them in parameters for an effective engagement.

What impact do decoys and other ah*t do?
As usual, "it depends", but for some threats - done right - extremely effective. Older historical data, but Lewin Building (RN's EW school) had a poster pointing out that about 100+ ASMs had been defeated by decoys, jamming et cetera compared to one confirmed shoot-down (at that point, not sure we've had more since)

Hard-kill and soft-kill both have their uses, and properly combined are very effective - trying to overwhelm one, typically leaves you more susceptible to the other.

As far as I can remember there’s only one missile system at sea that has successfully shot down an ASM successfully.

No longer at sea, retired nearly a decade ago.

Other systems have been very successful against either telemetry targets (ASMs without warheads and fired on non-intercept courses, or realistic target drones like Vandal and Coyote)

I’m not saying the systems aren’t capable. Just highlighting that there’s a lot more to it than playing a game of missile tennis.

Oh, believe me, it's an interesting field and it paid my mortgage for a decade... and being careless or foolish will get you into a lot of trouble.
 
A better question than you'd think. Way back in 1982, with very limited countermeasures available, AM39 Exocet had a 40% hit rate on anything (five fired, three misses), and a 0% hit rate on its intended targets (the RN's carriers). It's not easy to find targets, properly identify them, pick the one you want, properly target the missile(s) and launch them in parameters for an effective engagement.


As usual, "it depends", but for some threats - done right - extremely effective. Older historical data, but Lewin Building (RN's EW school) had a poster pointing out that about 100+ ASMs had been defeated by decoys, jamming et cetera compared to one confirmed shoot-down (at that point, not sure we've had more since)

Hard-kill and soft-kill both have their uses, and properly combined are very effective - trying to overwhelm one, typically leaves you more susceptible to the other.



No longer at sea, retired nearly a decade ago.

Other systems have been very successful against either telemetry targets (ASMs without warheads and fired on non-intercept courses, or realistic target drones like Vandal and Coyote)



Oh, believe me, it's an interesting field and it paid my mortgage for a decade... and being careless or foolish will get you into a lot of trouble.
Thanks for that.
 

Mattb

LE
Chances of T45 ever getting a proper ABM capability? Zero to trending to none.
The article literally states that Sea Viper will be tested against a mach 16+ target.

If that's not some sort of ABM capability, I don't know what is.
 

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