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European Union Collapse Will Start in Italy and Soon

Italy referendum: all you need to know about Renzi's crunch vote

Italians are voting in a referendum on 4 December that is getting a lot of attention and causing concern across Europe. The vote could lead to the resignation of the prime minister, Matteo Renzi, and, some argue, even jeopardise the euro.

Renzi's yes or no referendum..... No have 54% in the polls and the momentum
and I suspect it is this to which Farage refers when he speaks of monumental shifts in opinion..

December 4th Italian Yes/No referendum. (Changes to constitution) but has morphed into a confidence vote in the Renzi Government.

Now you might think so what the Italian Government changes as often as people change their shoes. So what gives?

If the December 4 referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign. Even if he doesn’t, the loss would politically castrate him. In all likelihood his government would collapse.

One way or another, M5S (5 Star. Italy's UKIP) will come to power. It’s just a matter of when. If Renzi’s December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months.

Once it’s in power, M5S will hold a referendum on leaving the euro and returning to the lira. Italians will likely vote to leave. Also why Juncker was on the airwaves the other day saying National Referendums are unhelpful.

Italy is the third-largest member of the Eurozone. If it leaves, it will have the psychological effect of yelling “Fire!” in a crowded pub. Other countries—notably France—will quickly head for the exit and return to their national currencies.

Article 50 is largely neither here nor there, there may well be little left of the EU come 2019, and why the Liberals winning Richmond and trying to call it an anti BREXIT vote is white noise.......
 
nQUOTE="Stan-Smith, post: 7588095, member: 146284"]Aren't the Austrians having a bash at something on Sunday too?[/QUOTE]
Yes and it's neck and neck between Hofer (allegedly far-right) and the aptly named Van der Bellen(d) - a Green.

Edited - Bellend is a Van not a von - mea culpa etc.
 
Yes and it's neck and neck between Hofer (allegedly far-right) and the aptly named Van der Bellen(d) - a Green.

Hofer looks quite chuffed, van der Bellen less so.

838934357-hofer-van-bellen-wahl-oesterreich-tHbAGtTHnNG.jpg
 
I traveled North to South Genoa to Sicily a fortnight ago Grillo never seemed to be out of the news bulletins.
I`ve been to Sicily but not the Italian mainland. I am looking forward to visiting the place soon and spending Lira.Don`t forget we got the bandwagon rolling,now it looks like the Ities are jumping on board.
 
One way or another, M5S (5 Star. Italy's UKIP) will come to power. It’s just a matter of when. If Renzi’s December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months.


Not necessarily, Italian politics is almost impossible to understand, but Stephanie Kirchgaessner's take on it is:

So if it’s a no, it’s a really big win for M5S, right?
If the no campaign wins, it will definitely be a defeat for Renzi and a win for Grillo. But it’s more complicated than that. A no victory would – for reasons we won’t go into – force the current government to make a change to a totally separate electoral law. This, in turn, means that if M5S were to win the next election it would probably only get to take a proportionate number of seats in parliament. Under the present rules, the winner takes the majority.

Plus it takes forever for the Italians to do anything, so getting rid of the Euro would probably not happen for years.

Interesting bit at the end though regarding Italian banks:

Shares in Italy’s beleaguered banking sector are down more than 20% since Brexit, in large part because investors are worried about the outcome.

If the European banking sector is losing money, maybe our PM could have a good bargaining chip once article 50 has been triggered (or is it just Italy?)
 
If the Euro quickly collapses and Germany ends up re-introducing the Deutsche Mark, I have read estimates that the Mark would currently be worth around 4- 5 times that of the Euro. If so, for a while at least, everything out of Germany would be phenomenally expensive.
On the plus side, it'll solve their skills shortage at a stroke
 
If the Euro quickly collapses and Germany ends up re-introducing the Deutsche Mark, I have read estimates that the Mark would currently be worth around 4- 5 times that of the Euro. If so, for a while at least, everything out of Germany would be phenomenally expensive.
On the plus side, it'll solve their skills shortage at a stroke

Swings and roundabouts.

Swings being the skilled workers flogging in to get the wages, the roundabouts being no one else in the World can afford their exports..... I spot an eventual problem....

Not necessarily, Italian politics is almost impossible to understand, but Stephanie Kirchgaessner's take on it is:

So if it’s a no, it’s a really big win for M5S, right?
If the no campaign wins, it will definitely be a defeat for Renzi and a win for Grillo. But it’s more complicated than that. A no victory would – for reasons we won’t go into – force the current government to make a change to a totally separate electoral law. This, in turn, means that if M5S were to win the next election it would probably only get to take a proportionate number of seats in parliament. Under the present rules, the winner takes the majority.

Plus it takes forever for the Italians to do anything, so getting rid of the Euro would probably not happen for years.

Interesting bit at the end though regarding Italian banks:

Shares in Italy’s beleaguered banking sector are down more than 20% since Brexit, in large part because investors are worried about the outcome.

If the European banking sector is losing money, maybe our PM could have a good bargaining chip once article 50 has been triggered (or is it just Italy?)

Is a Guardian correspondents view so should be read with that disclosure in mind.

my bold
The Italian banking sector is like a dead donkey which has been dead for thirty years, kept on life support and steroid injections through ever an increasing borrowing requirement. To say they are worse than us is actually quite true. Same reason every time there is a banking crisis somewhere or Greece threatens to quit the EU all the financial presses eyes to turn to long term Italian (and French) bonds.
Losing money doesn't even begin to cover it.

Perversely if it wasn't for the Euro Italy would have defaulted years ago....
 

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