European Elections 2019

#21
I might stand in the next general election could be best ever £500 to spend.
Not sure if to stand as OMRLP or the Arrse Party if their is one?
A safe Tory seat with a 22k majority, but fancy the Westminister Trough for 5 years.
Might even be able to keep my current job & get a few directorships too & milk it as much as I can?
 
#22
Quite a large ballot paper for the South West Region

Change Uk - The independent Group
Conservative & Unionist Party
English Democrats
Green Party
Labour Party
Liberal Democrats
The Brexit Party
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Larch Ian Albert Frank Maxey - Independant
Mothiur Rahman - Independent
Neville Seed - Independant

Lots to confuse people and potential to split votes

Archie
As you say, potentially confusing. Certainly some vote splitting between Independents and Independants..... :)
 
#24
The vote that will most probably be split is the Remain vote.

The Brexit Party (big clue in the name) will attract votes from former UKIP supporters concerned the party is borderline racist, Labour and Tory Brexit supporters and those who just want to give May/the Tories a bloody nose.

The Remain vote will be split among the remaining Labour and Tory voters, Change UK, the Limp Dems and possibly the Greens.

Current opinion polling suggests the Brexit Party is going to wind the major share of the vote by a considerable margin.

Wordsmith
Poll of polls is currently predicting:
United Kingdom

Labour maintaining 20 seats
Conservatives losing 7 seats (19 > 12)
LDP gaining 5 seats (1 > 6)
Green gaining 3 seats (3 > 6)
SNP gaining 1 seat (2 > 3)
PC maintaining 1 seat
UKIP losing 20 seats (24 > 4)
Brexit Party gaining 16 seats
Change UK gaining 3 seats

So, quite a complex picture, but it seems that there will be some splitting of the votes, but not as much as you suggest compared with last time.
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#25
Poll of polls is currently predicting:
United Kingdom

Labour maintaining 20 seats
Conservatives losing 7 seats (19 > 12)
LDP gaining 5 seats (1 > 6)
Green gaining 3 seats (3 > 6)
SNP gaining 1 seat (2 > 3)
PC maintaining 1 seat
UKIP losing 20 seats (24 > 4)
Brexit Party gaining 16 seats
Change UK gaining 3 seats

So, quite a complex picture, but it seems that there will be some splitting of the votes, but not as much as you suggest compared with last time.
I'm going to do my best BL impersonation and say "wait and see".

I'll be apologising to you if your assessment is more accurate than mine.

Wordsmith :smile:
 
#26
Poll of polls is currently predicting:
United Kingdom

Labour maintaining 20 seats
Conservatives losing 7 seats (19 > 12)
LDP gaining 5 seats (1 > 6)
Green gaining 3 seats (3 > 6)
SNP gaining 1 seat (2 > 3)
PC maintaining 1 seat
UKIP losing 20 seats (24 > 4)
Brexit Party gaining 16 seats
Change UK gaining 3 seats

So, quite a complex picture, but it seems that there will be some splitting of the votes, but not as much as you suggest compared with last time.
Can't take broad voting intentions and then turn into meaningful projection of MEP seat numbers without regionalising, projecting turnout then running through algorithm on a region by region basis to account for the very odd system used in these elections.

The Voting System

Does that do so?
 
#27
Can't take broad voting intentions and then turn into meaningful projection of MEP seat numbers without regionalising, projecting turnout then running through algorithm on a region by region basis to account for the very odd system used in these elections.

Does that do so?
No idea. Why don't you go to their website and have a look?
 
#28
As predicted Italy going strong Eurosceptic, a possible 48 out of 72 seats. However UK only 34 out of 73, can see hat improving.

United Kingdom
 
#29
No idea. Why don't you go to their website and have a look?
Only asked.

The answer is that it claims to have run the base numbers through a system which takes account of the differing versions of the voting system used in EU member states.

Which is why the EU voting will be bad but, contrary to the expectations of many, won't translate into a near complete wipe out for the Conservatives in MEP numbers.
 
#30
As predicted Italy going strong Eurosceptic, a possible 48 out of 72 seats. However UK only 34 out of 73, can see hat improving.

United Kingdom
I might be a bit slow but the relationship between projected percentage and number of seats seems loaded in some way. The following is just the top half of the table. In the current projection the Brexit Party gets the biggest percentage but comes second to labour which has the second highest percentage. :wtf:

1557308404233.png


@.@
 

Wordsmith

LE
Book Reviewer
#31
I might be a bit slow but the relationship between projected percentage and number of seats seems loaded in some way. The following is just the top half of the table. In the current projection the Brexit Party gets the biggest percentage but comes second to labour which has the second highest percentage. :wtf:

View attachment 391787

@.@
That looks wrong. It's a PR system and the biggest share of the vote should result in the most seats. In addition (for example) the Tory vote is forecast to be half that of the BP, yet the number of seats in not greatly different.

The only way that the above prediction might be true is if the BP vote is very unevenly distributed.

Wordsmith
 
#32
I might be a bit slow but the relationship between projected percentage and number of seats seems loaded in some way. The following is just the top half of the table. In the current projection the Brexit Party gets the biggest percentage but comes second to labour which has the second highest percentage. :wtf:

View attachment 391787

@.@
I was looking at that to, guess its metropolitan areas v rural areas and MEP numbers. Not sure though.
 
#35
It is important that voters have access to unbiased information ahead of the elections. France 24's "Tech 24" reports @3m44s on the multi-million Euro effort to combat disinformation using Artificial Intelligence algorithms. There are some limitations and it is not a "silver bullet". Next is a short report about efforts from Facebook's EU ELEX War Room based in Ireland and Microsoft's open source Election Guard software.

Tech 24 - The battle against fake news ahead of EU elections

ETA - More on EU & France vs fake news

From 8m24s
 
Last edited:

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#36
It is important that voters have access to unbiased information ahead of the elections. France 24's "Tech 24" reports @3m44s on the multi-million Euro effort to combat disinformation using Artificial Intelligence algorithms. There are some limitations and it is not a "silver bullet". Next is a short report about efforts from Facebook's EU ELEX War Room based in Ireland and Microsoft's open source Election Guard software.

Tech 24 - The battle against fake news ahead of EU elections

ETA - More on EU & France vs fake news

From 8m24s
The idea of the EU being a bulwark against fake news is laughable. There’s more bullshit and lies in them there corridors of sleaze than in NAAFI after piss up.
 
#37
As was said yesterday on the Marr show the major parties are going to get a monumental drubbing. It's also going to be the second referendum, if the vote goes to the Brexit Party then the Lib Dems, Greens and Indies will have their glee rammed down their throats. The main parties will be ritualy humiliated, and possibly split by it. The Brexit Party will measure their success with MEP seats which will humiliate HMG and the EU.
 
#38
Is this the elections for seats in the horrible unelected EU Parliament?
 

BuggerAll

LE
Kit Reviewer
Book Reviewer
#39
Is this the elections for seats in the horrible unelected EU Parliament?
Nobody says the EU Parliament is unelected. Merely that’s it has very little power. The power is with the Executive which is unelected and unaccountable.
 
#40
I’ve just watched the PPB for (No) Change UK. What a pile of horse manure. However, at the end, their annoying so-called leader Heidi Allen (anyone told Chukka yet?) challenged Nigel Farage to a live TV debate this Friday, 17th May.
Will he take the bait? I reckon he will hand Ms Allen her arse!
 

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