EU oil Embargo 1st July 2012 - Iran re-asserts Closure of Str. Hormuz

#1
Iran: European Union Imposes EU Ban On Oil In Tehran Nuclear Row As Foreign Ministers Meet | World News | Sky News

Iran Hormuz Threat As EU Approves Oil Embargo - Yahoo! Finance UK

The EU has formally agreed to an Iranian oil embargo - but a senior Iranian official has responded with defiance, saying the country "will definitely" close the Strait of Hormuz.

To protect Europe's economy, struggling with a two-year-old debt crisis, foreign ministers agreed to delay full implementation of the oil embargo until July 1, an EU diplomat said.

That will give countries such as Greece, which rely heavily on Iranian oil, to find alternative sources.

However Tehran was defiant in the face of the embargo.

"If any disruption happens regarding the sale of Iranian oil, the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be closed," Mohammad Kossari, deputy head of parliament's foreign affairs and national security committee, told Fars news agency.

Should that happen immediately it will hurt Greece and other EU countries such as Italy, already suffering heavily from the eurozone crisis.

Thirty-five per cent of the world's tanker-borne oil exports pass through the Strait, which the Iranians have declared they have the "right" to close before.

More the web pages
 
#2
I was chatting about this a couple with a colleague who is very knowledgable about the way the oil industry works. My line was "this is only going to cost $2 per barrel for a different route for export". I.E. For straits of Hormouz oil only, an extra $2, not extra for the rest of the exported oil in the world.

Perhaps a squall in a teacup?
 
#3
The Joint Task force that has sailed through the straits has made it clear to the iranians that there playing with the big boys and a shooing deliverd by Harpoon and exocet is very much on the menu should iran try to close the straights.
 
#4
The Joint Task force that has sailed through the straits has made it clear to the iranians that there playing with the big boys and a shooing deliverd by Harpoon and exocet is very much on the menu should iran try to close the straights.

Oooh a glass car park in the making.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#5
I gather BFO US carrier Abe Lincoln is on this and that if you look very carefully through a magnifying glass you may see an RN frigate as well. As well of course as umpty ump other USN ships. Standby for incoming MoDRSS feed about how we are protecting etc etc. And always the possibility that we have borroiwed our contributory ship from something else like one of the three multi-national anti-piracy task forces. Weeps into his pink gin.
 
#6
HMS Argyll is our contribution to this rattle of the sabre it seems.
 

Guns

ADC
Moderator
Book Reviewer
#8
Of course the entire Iranian navy and republican guard will have come out in their 300 old swarm boats.... oh whats that the sea state is a bit choppy and they can't get out to sea. Never mind.
 
#9
The second battle of ipod?
 
#10
Of course the entire Iranian navy and republican guard will have come out in their 300 old swarm boats.... oh whats that the sea state is a bit choppy and they can't get out to sea. Never mind.
Do the Iranians have the capability to close the Straits by mine warfare?
 

Guns

ADC
Moderator
Book Reviewer
#11
Not if they don't go to sea they don't.

Seriously though just claiming they have is enough for a short period. But people believe that you can just chuck a few mines and it will be fine. The straits is a narrow piece of water but more importantly it is in Omans territorial waters. If the Iranians do mine they in effect declare war on their one "friend" in the area. Plus the GCC nations defence agreements kick in and they end up with the western side of the Gulf having a reason to spread some love and joy eastwards. And we haven't even talked about the rest of the world.

Closing the Straights is the easy bit. It is keeping them closed that is harder. We have good mine warfare capabilities here right now and could quickly clear the straights.

The bit that worries is the uncontrolled lunatic lot that sit in power. Who knows what they would do. If they start firing missiles at tankers it is going to be very bloody, not just in supply lines cut but the environmental damage will be huge.

Even China has dropped hints that the Iranians should think twice. Thats like Keith Richards telling to lay off the booze and fags.
 
#12
Does anyone have a resource/Link that shows Iran's allies etc, to weigh up the counter arguement,

Although with the IAEA visit due I get the impression Iran are giving them the run around

"The Agency team is going to Iran in a constructive spirit, and we trust that Iran will work with us in that same spirit," Yukiya Amano, Director General of the Vienna-based agency, said in a statement.
IAEA aims to resolve substantive issues in Iran | Reuters
 
#15
It's not just what's on the surface that interests me, but what is lurking below. Those sun dodgers tend to lurk in places where they are not wanted, listening to and maybe watching what dinnerjackets boys are up to. They could of course disembark a few pax should the need arise....
 
#16
Even China has dropped hints that the Iranians should think twice. Thats like Keith Richards telling to lay off the booze and fags.
I remember a Soviet tanker getting hit during the Iran-Iraq war way back when. The Kremlin sent a snottogram to Tehran, the response to which basically was " First we'll beat Saddam, then we'll deal with those apostate pansies across the Gulf, You Communists are next..."
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#18
The THREAT of minelaying can cause a lot of disruption even without any real mines (like the one that damaged USS Tripoli way back). In 1956 after the Suez excitement Nasser announced that he had mined the Gulk of Suez. We had no minesweeprs East of Suez at that time so had to send some round the Cape of Good Hope which at 16K max flat out took time. Fortunately as he had blocked the canal nobody else was immediately more inconvenienced. After a lot of grubbing about with various sorts of sweeps (this was before minhunting sonar) it was agreed that the whiole thing had been a bluff and he hadn't actually laid any mines in the first place. But he MIGHT have.

Proving the negative, given that mines can have all sorts of complicated logic in their triggers let alone delays and ship counts, can be laborious.
 
#19
Well, the Guardian reported today that in US Forces wargaming the guys with the BFO war canoes lost out to swarm tactics coming from various inlets, Russian Kilo class submarines laying mines, and various land based short-sea skimmers overloading the defences. Apparently, there are only two major channels for the majority of tankers to use.

I am not a military genius by any stretch of the imagination, but you would need more than 15,000 US forces in the area consisting of 2 brigades plus an aviation unit to sub due those inlets and other launch points. To boot, any attack on Iranian forces would have to be of the shock and awe delived concurrently with overwhelming those inlands and neutralising the Kilos.

So when I read the comments above about the embargo starting later this year, my thought is that time is needed for a build up of assets. Do you seriously think anyone gives a flying feck about Greece? In addition, the border between Afghanistan and Iran would also have to be bolstered.

Final thought is that UK and France might need time to re-equip with appropriate ordinance.
 

Similar threads

New Posts

Latest Threads

Top