Election 2015 Run Up Thread

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We seem be be spreading election subjects across a number of threads so maybe we can keep this one for election news, opinion polls and whichever way the electorate is swinging.

Lets get things started.

Lord Ashcroft poll for Doncaster North (Ed Millibands seat).

1. Vote Tory get Labour (Opportunity for tactical Tory Voting to vote UKIP)
2. UKIP are 12% away from unseating him.

Of course if UKIP switch to Tory they win the seat.. But then there will be diehard Labour supporters who have switched to UKIP who could never bring themselves to vote Tory. (I live in the North and am seeing this).


poll.png


http://order-order.com/2014/11/27/poll-ukip-tory-tactical-voting-in-doncaster-would-unseat-ed/

The May 2015 election is going to be the most interesting we have seen in years..
 
The election gun went a couple of months ago. Its now all parties except UKIP (who are riding the waves) who are playing catch up.
Labour have reverted to type and its the old chestnut of class war, sadly that idiot Tristram Hunt has kicked off the old public school debate. Seems he has forgotten he is a product of the system as the current Head of his Alma Mater said in the DT today. They are also battling with their image or lack of linkage with the core white van man.
Lib Dems are playing uncouple the Coalition and claim all the good bits in the Divorce settlement.
Cons are playing we are more UKIP than UKIP as they see from Lord As surveys that the pissed off Cons can sink the Party, as can happen across in Labours camp.
Lets see what dirty news is trailed, for instance the Mellor in a taxi saga which is by association tainted the Tories
 
The Doncaster North wiki page gives a historical snapshot of how the electorate has performed since 1983.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doncaster_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Labour have slowly but surely been ceding support to the Tories since 1997.

UKIP have put forward a candidate in the last 3 General Elections. Not known if the seat is on their target list or if they stand purely because it is Ed's seat.

In 2010 UKIP had 4.3% of the vote.
in 2005 3%
In 2001 2.3%

(In 1997 Referendum Party polled 4% of the vote)

In 2010 and 2005 the BNP candidate polled more votes than UKIP.

These are all notional figures and it remains to be seen if what people are saying now will transmit into votes next May but these figures could suggest political earthquake.

In 2010 Labour had 47.3% of the vote The Tories had 21% so the Ashcroft poll suggests Labour are -7.3% and the Tories are + 2% whilst UKIP are +23.7%.

Ashcroft's figures add up to 91% so 9% is unaccounted for and we don't know the size of his snapshot.

Where has all the UKIP support come from? Clearly more Labour than Tories if any Tory at all?
 
Red Eds majority in 2010 was just over 10,000, the other two seats in the Doncaster patch are Labour with significant profiled MPs, including the gorgeous Ms Flint . So if Eds seat goes to UKIP then Labour would be mortally wounded.
Have a look at the electoral vote from electoral calculus for 2010 election. There will I am sure be a migration of the Lib Dem and Other votes which could if joined together give labour a very serious problem!

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/calcwork.pl?seat=Doncaster North
Main table for Doncaster North
The main table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Doncaster North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.
 

philc

LE
Pimpernel

The Mellor saga won't effect the Tories, who has not wanted to explode at a London taxi driver and then you get some Union wanting to ban him from black taxis shows up the story for what it is, shit stirring pure and simple.

Interesting figures for Doncaster, maybe that's Labours big hope, they get elected but Milliband gets booted out. He can't be PM then.
 

NSP

LE
Blah, blah...

Ashcroft's figures add up to 91% so 9% is unaccounted for and we don't know the size of his snapshot.
They are the "don't know" respondents, I expect.
 
Pimpernel

The Mellor saga won't effect the Tories, who has not wanted to explode at a London taxi driver and then you get some Union wanting to ban him from black taxis shows up the story for what it is, shit stirring pure and simple.

Interesting figures for Doncaster, maybe that's Labours big hope, they get elected but Milliband gets booted out. He can't be PM then.
Probably not, but its a time of political stereotyping and Mellor is well odious as is that woman in the jungle!
 
I have said it before and will say again.
Dave is working hard to lose the Election. Leader my arrse not that any of the major parties have a Leader as I recognise one.
Some weeks ago a jurno from The Times said
'We are now in the unique position of having three party leaders who in one year will probably not be there.'
Not one of the three is up to the job but with the Unions behind ED Milliband I expect he will be next PM.

john
 
Dave is about to make a big speech today which will be all about restricting benefits to EU immigrants.

It seems this is a key plank of his re-negotiation strategy with the EU yet discussions around this topic (and some suggestions by quite savvy posters) on these pages suggest these measures were always in the gift on the UK government, particularly as this is the way other EU members control their immigration and access to their welfare systems.

Strikes me that Dave could have done some of this 4 years ago but yet he saves his big gun announcements to the day after the Migration reports make him look like a right cnut.

Methinks he is taking us for the same..
 
I have to admit my vote is swaying towards UKIP for the up coming elections this year, although Farge is a dick and think that the party would benefit if he was replaced, the party does seem to be appealing to me as allot of the news stories that are on our screens on a daily bases are usually in some way connected to immigration.

  • Terrorism - we need tighter security measures on who is leaving/entering the country, the less people we let stay the less strain it puts on our security services.
  • Schools - our classes are overcrowded and councils are having to pay for additional staff to cope with extra pupils especially when English is not their first language.
  • NHS - We all have seen the news of late so we know the massive strain that is on our health service is under.
  • Housing - Again its self explanatory there is a high demand for housing as our population is accelerating out of control.
  • Jobs - Taking (some) jobs from British workers and paying them less in some cases.
  • Benefits - Just last year a young eastern European girl (21) told one of my co workers that she was only here for the benefits, a month later she was pregnant ££££
I have been impressed by some of the PM's decisions him and the Conservatives have made lately such as when he was left very unpopular within the EU when we were socked for a 1,7bn bill with a month window to pay, and the fact that he would be willing to have a referendum over our EU membership.

Immigration is a big part of every day life so I think that's why it is leading my opinion on my vote as the other parties aren't as convincing.

  • Conservatives - They are too upper class and they don't seem to have a real understanding of people and their lives that are at the bottom of the food chain.
  • Labour - Ed is not a real leader he is trying too hard to please the British public and feel that if his brother had won the leadership Labour would look allot different just now.
  • Liberal Democrats - N/A
Unfortunately it looks like we will be voting in another coalition, but who will it be?
 
We know what the media says but what does the Arsser Collective think? time for another Poll on who Arssers will
be voting for this year.
 
Labour shadow minister in electioneering mode rips into Capitan Blunt (retd) as an example of all things posh and privileged and what is wrong with this Country.. Gets his arse handed to him on a plate.

http://www.theguardian.com/music/20...t-gimp-chris-bryant-diversity-privileged-arts
Singer James Blunt has accused shadow culture minister Chris Bryant of being a “classist gimp” after the politician cited him as one of the performers from a privileged background dominating the arts.

The 40-year-old Brit award-winning artist has written a letter arguing that his private education and background worked against his success in the British music industry, where he was thought to be “too posh” and received a request to modify his accent.

The letter.....

Dear Chris Bryant MP,

You classist gimp. I happened to go to a boarding school. No one helped me at boarding school to get into the music business. I bought my first guitar with money I saved from holiday jobs (sandwich packing!). I was taught the only four chords I know by a friend. No one at school had ANY knowledge or contacts in the music business, and I was expected to become a soldier or a lawyer or perhaps a stockbroker. So alien was it, that people laughed at the idea of me going into the music business, and certainly no one was of any use.

In the army, again, people thought it was a mad idea. None of them knew anyone in the business either.

And when I left the army, going against everyone’s advice, EVERYONE I met in the British music industry told me there was no way it would work for me because I was too posh. One record company even asked if I could speak in a different accent. (I told them I could try Russian).

Every step of the way, my background has been AGAINST me succeeding in the music business. And when I have managed to break through, I was STILL scoffed at for being too posh for the industry.

And then you come along, looking for votes, telling working class people that posh people like me don’t deserve it, and that we must redress the balance. But it is your populist, envy-based, vote-hunting ideas which make our country crap, far more than me and my shit songs, and my plummy accent.

I got signed in America, where they don’t give a stuff about, or even understand what you mean by me and “my ilk”, you prejudiced wazzock, and I worked my arse off. What you teach is the politics of jealousy. Rather than celebrating success and figuring out how we can all exploit it further as the Americans do, you instead talk about how we can hobble that success and “level the playing field”. Perhaps what you’ve failed to realise is that the only head-start my school gave me in the music business, where the VAST majority of people are NOT from boarding school, is to tell me that I should aim high. Perhaps it protected me from your kind of narrow-minded, self-defeating, lead-us-to-a-dead-end, remove-the-‘G’-from-‘GB’ thinking, which is to look at others’ success and say, “it’s not fair.”

Up yours,

James Cucking Funt

hehe Well done James Blunt....
 
One election thread has already been consigned to the bin because of a few individuals dragging it off topic and generally ruining it for those who want to discuss the subject seriously.

Post only within the rules for CA, please.

Anyone who gets their crayons out will find their ability to contribute removed.
 
Not much in the news today on the various election campaigns. Limited to milk prices (for farmers) and these seems to originate from a commons committee, rather than the press office of a party hq

Wonder if the parties are having a tactical pause to consider how their opening shots of the campaign went down?
 
To repeat what ViroBono said for the terminally hard of thinking, keep it on the topic or it will just get binned.
 
To repeat what ViroBono said for the terminally hard of thinking, keep it on the topic or it will just get binned.
I'm confused. Was my last post off-thread?
 
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