Economic Recovery - and betting against yourself.

#1
So I am feeling very let down by the members of Arrse today.

The economic figures were issued today - with their revision. I bet myself, I mean I absolutely KNEW that there would have been one of two threads put on here. Either:

1. Growth revised upwards - Lying ONS fix figures for government thread

2. Growth revised back to recession - Complete reliance on the ONS figures - the Labour government are useless etc.

But neither one.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8538293.stm
 
#2
I take it you are sorely disapointed Bazz?
For what its worth I read it in The Times this morning and cynical old me thought that it can't hurt Gordon's claims to be our savior.
Sadly my cynacism has reached the level where I look at such thinks and my first thought is to wonder if its manipulated.
 
#3
Only disappointed in that my low opinion of some of the more "fanaticised" members of the arrse community was proven wrong in this instance. Could I however argue that it is telling that if a sparrow farts somebody on here opens a thread, but massively important economic data is ignored and not even mentioned? At the very least I would have expected WC to share his views - posting data without comment being one of his fortes.*


*How the hell do you get an e with an accent above it?
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#4
Bazzinho1977 said:
So I am feeling very let down by the members of Arrse today.

The economic figures were issued today - with their revision. I bet myself, I mean I absolutely KNEW that there would have been one of two threads put on here. Either:

1. Growth revised upwards - Lying ONS fix figures for government thread

2. Growth revised back to recession - Complete reliance on the ONS figures - the Labour government are useless etc.

But neither one.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8538293.stm
The EU commission are forecasting 0.7% for the EU as a whole:

"Recovery of the European Union economy is under way: In its forecast, the European Commission said that both the euro area and the EU would expand by 0.7 percent this year after contractions of 4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively in 2009. The growth is still fragile although risks in 2010 are broadly balanced. It also said that the euro area inflation would be 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent for the whole EU in 2010."

Whereas analysts are still saying UK could return to negative (very likely in Q1 I think).

Which means my rapidly increasing pile of Sterling in UK, (which I could really do with converting to Euros to buy a new Audi), may end up getting "invested" in expensive handmade firearms to go with all the tweed I've bought.......
 
#6
*How the hell do you get an e with an accent above it?[/quote]

Answer : AltGr , followed by the letter in question .

( See middle bottom row of keyboard for AltGr.)
 
#7
Alsacien said:
The EU commission are forecasting 0.7% for the EU as a whole:

"Recovery of the European Union economy is under way: In its forecast, the European Commission said that both the euro area and the EU would expand by 0.7 percent this year after contractions of 4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively in 2009. The growth is still fragile although risks in 2010 are broadly balanced. It also said that the euro area inflation would be 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent for the whole EU in 2010."

Whereas analysts are still saying UK could return to negative (very likely in Q1 I think).

Which means my rapidly increasing pile of Sterling in UK, (which I could really do with converting to Euros to buy a new Audi), may end up getting "invested" in expensive handmade firearms to go with all the tweed I've bought.......
The outlook for Q1 really is crystal ball stuff at present, I think. There are a number of factors. I would suggest if there is going to be a double dip recession (i.e. we go back into negative growth for two consecutive quarters) this will happen after the next election. If you are talking about one quarters dip - then that will come Q3 is my best guess
 
#8
"The UK recession began in the April-to-June quarter of 2008, and was the longest UK downturn on record."

Gordos new song, with due deference to Shaggy

"Wasn't me, I didn't do it"

So all is now sweetness and light - thank Gordness for that!
 
#10
Bazzinho1977 said:
Only disappointed in that my low opinion of some of the more "fanaticised" members of the arrse community was proven wrong in this instance. Could I however argue that it is telling that if a sparrow farts somebody on here opens a thread, but massively important economic data is ignored and not even mentioned? At the very least I would have expected WC to share his views - posting data without comment being one of his fortes.*

Do you TRUST any figures given by the lying bunch of cnuts in westminster?
The bottom line is we are still 178 billion pounds in debt! :x


*How the hell do you get an e with an accent above it?
Use a FRENCH keyboard eg é :lol:
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#11
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
The EU commission are forecasting 0.7% for the EU as a whole:

"Recovery of the European Union economy is under way: In its forecast, the European Commission said that both the euro area and the EU would expand by 0.7 percent this year after contractions of 4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively in 2009. The growth is still fragile although risks in 2010 are broadly balanced. It also said that the euro area inflation would be 1.1 percent and 1.4 percent for the whole EU in 2010."

Whereas analysts are still saying UK could return to negative (very likely in Q1 I think).

Which means my rapidly increasing pile of Sterling in UK, (which I could really do with converting to Euros to buy a new Audi), may end up getting "invested" in expensive handmade firearms to go with all the tweed I've bought.......
The outlook for Q1 really is crystal ball stuff at present, I think. There are a number of factors. I would suggest if there is going to be a double dip recession (i.e. we go back into negative growth for two consecutive quarters) this will happen after the next election. If you are talking about one quarters dip - then that will come Q3 is my best guess
....well as 2 quarters will definately take us past the next election that does not make you Madame Zara does it now.... :D
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#12
Alright then, if I must.

The economy is fcuked, it's Gordon Brown's fault. Anything the government says about a: the state of the economy, b: how long it will take to fix, C: how much it will cost is a complete load of twaddle and outright lies.

All this talk about 'growth' in coming quarters is completely irrelevent to the hundreds of thousands of people dumped on the dole, or the tens of thousands who've had their homes repossessed or the tens of millions who are having to pay higher taxes so that the lying, stealing, incompetent bankers can have their multi-billion pound bonuses off the back of the tax-payer funded guarantees.

To put it simply: They're all scum, it's all lies, and here we go again, more of my money paying to put it right. Whoopie do.

Hope that helps.
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#13
Biped said:
Alright then, if I must.

The economy is fcuked, it's Gordon Brown's fault. Anything the government says about a: the state of the economy, b: how long it will take to fix, C: how much it will cost is a complete load of twaddle and outright lies.

All this talk about 'growth' in coming quarters is completely irrelevent to the hundreds of thousands of people dumped on the dole, or the tens of thousands who've had their homes repossessed or the tens of millions who are having to pay higher taxes so that the lying, stealing, incompetent bankers can have their multi-billion pound bonuses off the back of the tax-payer funded guarantees.

To put it simply: They're all scum, it's all lies, and here we go again, more of my money paying to put it right. Whoopie do.

Hope that helps.
Bad day mate :? :D
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#14
Better now :D
 
#15
Government spending for Jan 2010 has been revised up from+0.2% to +1.2% in the report.*

Take that away and its actually -0.7%, which means still in recession.

*Rumour mill says that a few Govt. Depts delayed December spending to add it to the January figures.
 
#16
Alsacien said:
[qu
....well as 2 quarters will definately take us past the next election that does not make you Madame Zara does it now.... :D
Yeah - as I said, anything else IS crystal ball stuff. Point is that we CAN NOT go back into recession officially now until after the election. Which could be gist for the rumour mill that this is a nefarious deed.

Somebody mentioned that government spending went up 1.2% - and that we should cut that out. Really? In that case we should cut it out of ALL previous numbers used as well. Otherwise you are not comparing like with like. It is a silly argument.

There was also a reference to withholding invoices from December and paying them in January. This wouldn't work anyway - its not on a cash basis, but an accruals basis - but also - why would the government not pay more early in December and jump out of recession earlier and increase the growth - absolute madness. Was this a real "rumour" or are you just trying to start it? Does the source start "My Dad said that...."
 
#17
Majorpain said:
*Rumour mill says that a few Govt. Depts delayed December spending to add it to the January figures.
It wouldn't even surprise me. Bottom line is we're fu..ed and have a debt bigger than the GDP of most states!
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#18
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
[qu
....well as 2 quarters will definately take us past the next election that does not make you Madame Zara does it now.... :D
Yeah - as I said, anything else IS crystal ball stuff. Point is that we CAN NOT go back into recession officially now until after the election. Which could be gist for the rumour mill that this is a nefarious deed.

Somebody mentioned that government spending went up 1.2% - and that we should cut that out. Really? In that case we should cut it out of ALL previous numbers used as well. Otherwise you are not comparing like with like. It is a silly argument.

There was also a reference to withholding invoices from December and paying them in January. This wouldn't work anyway - its not on a cash basis, but an accruals basis - but also - why would the government not pay more early in December and jump out of recession earlier and increase the growth - absolute madness. Was this a real "rumour" or are you just trying to start it? Does the source start "My Dad said that...."
For someone who has qualifications in doing sums and adding things up, you do seem to hold a rather optimistic view of the current governments way of doing things...... I'm not into pointless Labour bashing (at least for this post), but seeing the market forecasts for UK in both the EU and Eurozone comparative contexts, you have to conclude that UK is in the kak, and lacks the size and diversity of comparable EU countries to get itself out quicker than them.

An interesting thing crossed my desk at lunchtime regarding the Lisbon treaty:
The ECB had a mandate for price stability in the Eurozone (16 Euro using countries), its new mandate is extended to the whole EU (27 countries including UK).
Although it was always tacitly there, use of the Euro throughout the EU becomes an official EU objective.

Maybe our resident EU expert Iolis could give us his perspective on what this may imply.... 8O

Tin foil hat wearers may need to reach for more Bacofoil.....
 
#19
Biped said:
Alright then, if I must.

The economy is fcuked, it's Gordon Brown's fault. Anything the government says about a: the state of the economy, b: how long it will take to fix, C: how much it will cost is a complete load of twaddle and outright lies.

All this talk about 'growth' in coming quarters is completely irrelevent to the hundreds of thousands of people dumped on the dole, or the tens of thousands who've had their homes repossessed or the tens of millions who are having to pay higher taxes so that the lying, stealing, incompetent bankers can have their multi-billion pound bonuses off the back of the tax-payer funded guarantees.

To put it simply: They're all scum, it's all lies, and here we go again, more of my money paying to put it right. Whoopie do.

Hope that helps.
Surely you have better things to be doing right now, Mr King? :D

For what it's worth, Baz, I'd made pretty much the same bet myself. The rampant hypocrisy some Arrsers display is reaching tsunami proportions. I wonder how they'll amuse themselves come The Glorious Day when this shower are back to opposition and the next shower take over?
 
#20
I thought I saw somewhere that Italy and France had slipped back into negative growth, with Germanys growth at 0. I am willing to be proved wrong as it is only a fading half memory.
 

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