Economic figures going up.

#1
Unfortunately, the figures going up are not the ones UK Plc wants to go up...

1) UK Government Debt & Deficit


In the calendar year 2009 the UK recorded a general government deficit of £159.2 billion, which was equivalent to 11.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

At the end of December 2009 general government debt was £950.4 billion, equivalent to 68.1 per cent of GDP.

The Maastricht Treaty's Excessive Deficit Procedure sets deficit and debt targets of 3 per cent and 60 per cent respectively for all EU countries. The UK's compliance is assessed on a financial year basis. The debt measure used under the Maastricht Treaty does not take account of assets held by general government.

These data were reported to the European Commission at the end of March 2010.

The data on government deficit and debt under the Maastricht Treaty are calculated according to the ONS’s interpretation of the 1995 European System of Accounts (ESA95) and a United Nations Statistical Commission decision on the treatment of government receipts for use of the electro-magnetic spectrum. ONS also publishes a separate deficit figure consistent with a Eurostat decision which treats these receipts differently. General government is the sum of central and local government.


2) Inflation


CPI annual inflation – the Government’s target measure – was 3.4 per cent in March, up from 3.0 per cent in February.

The upward pressures to the change in CPI annual inflation are widespread, the largest coming from housing and household services where prices rose slightly between February and March this year but fell a year ago. The 1.0 per cent fall between February and March 2009 was the largest monthly fall on record for this series. The main effect came from domestic gas where average bills were unchanged between February and March this year but fell between the same two months a year ago.

Other large upward pressures came from transport (principally due to movements in petrol and diesel pump prices, and air fares), food and non-alcoholic drinks (with the largest effect coming from vegetables where the weather has affected supplies of some produce), and clothing and footwear (driven by women’s outerwear prices).

The only large downward pressure to the change in CPI annual inflation came from furniture, household equipment and maintenance where prices, overall, rose by less than a year ago.

In the year to March, RPI annual inflation was 4.4 per cent, up from 3.7 per cent in February. The main factors affecting the CPI also affected the RPI. Additionally there was significant upward pressure to the change in the RPI annual rate from housing. This was driven mainly by mortgage interest payments which rose by 0.7 per cent this year but fell by 6.3 per cent a year ago following February 2009’s half point decrease in the Bank rate. Within housing, there was also a large upward effect from house depreciation, which rose this year but fell a year ago.

RPIX inflation – the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments – was 4.8 per cent in March, up from 4.2 per cent in February.

As an internationally comparable measure of inflation, the CPI shows that the UK inflation rate in February was above the provisional figure for the European Union. The UK rate was 3.0 per cent whereas the EU’s as a whole was 1.4 per cent.

3) Unemployment


The employment rate for the three months to February 2010 was 72.1 per cent. The rate was down 0.3 on the quarter and it has not been lower since the three months to October 1996. The number of people in employment fell by 89,000 on the quarter to reach 28.82 million. There were falls in employment over the quarter for both full-time workers (down 59,000) and part-time workers (down 30,000). The number of employees and self-employed people working part-time because they could not find a full-time job increased by 13,000 on the quarter to reach 1.05 million, the highest figure since comparable records began in 1992.

The unemployment rate for the three months to February 2010 was 8.0 per cent. The rate was up 0.1 on the quarter and it has not been higher since the three months to September 1996. The number of unemployed people increased by 43,000 over the quarter to reach 2.50 million, the highest figure since the three months to December 1994. The number of people unemployed for up to six months fell by 46,000, to reach 1.22 million. However, the number of people unemployed for more than twelve months increased by 89,000 over the quarter to reach 726,000, the highest figure since the three months to July 1997.

The number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (the claimant count) decreased by 32,900 between February and March 2010 to reach 1.54 million. The claimant count has fallen for four out of the last five months.

The inactivity rate for the three months to February 2010 was 21.5 per cent. The rate has not been higher since the three months to October 2004 and it is up 0.3 on the quarter. The number of inactive people of working age increased by 110,000 over the quarter to reach a record high of 8.16 million. This increase in inactivity was largely driven by the number of students not in the labour market which increased by 71,000 on the quarter to reach 2.30 million.

The number of vacancies for the three months to March 2010 was 475,000, up 9,000 over the quarter.

The earnings annual growth rate for total pay (including bonuses) was 2.3 per cent for the three months to February 2010, up from 0.8 per cent for the three months to January 2010. This increase in the growth rate was mainly driven by the financial sector where there have been higher bonuses than last year and a timing effect; some companies who paid their annual bonuses in January last year paid them in February this year.

The earnings annual growth rate for regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 1.7 per cent for the three months to February 2010, up from 1.5 per cent for the three months to January 2010.
Vote New Labour. The party of BIG numbers.
 
#2
A quick look at these graphs seem to point to deficits,debts and unemployment rates going north at the point of Brown becoming PM?.

If Brown remains as PM post 6th May,these statistics will rise much further.You have been warned.
 
#3
Not everything's going up - growth fgures 0.2% rather than 0.4% forecast:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8639160.stm

Love BBC's spin on it - 'economy contines to recover' ......'figures may be revised upwards' (not mentioning downwards). Also slight glossing over of the fact that the bulk of growth was in business and financial sector - obviously not ready to credit those dastardly city types yet.

BTW, would love to here Steph Flanders say 'stonking' - she's got the whole scary governess thing going on.

Any odds offered for downward revision and double-dip recession post election?
 
#4
miles_gloriosus said:
Not everything's going up - growth fgures 0.2% rather than 0.4% forecast:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8639160.stm

Love BBC's spin on it - 'economy contines to recover' ......'figures may be revised upwards' (not mentioning downwards). Also slight glossing over of the fact that the bulk of growth was in business and financial sector - obviously not ready to credit those dastardly city types yet.

BTW, would love to here Steph Flanders say 'stonking' - she's got the whole scary governess thing going on.

Any odds offered for downward revision and double-dip recession post election?
I will take that bet. I will give you odds of 5 to 1 on any amount over £100. But I get to take figures held or revised upwards.

PM to sort it out if you want.
 
#8
Alsacien said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
From yesterdays wire:

The IMF raises its global growth forecast from 3.9 to 4.2% for this year
Last I heard was 4.1% - you don't have a linky do you Alsacien?
Not one that would work for you......try the IMF site?
They have changed it - it was the first place I went. It used to be imf.org - but I can't get through. No worries - it was purely out of interest.
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#9
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
From yesterdays wire:

The IMF raises its global growth forecast from 3.9 to 4.2% for this year
Last I heard was 4.1% - you don't have a linky do you Alsacien?
Not one that would work for you......try the IMF site?
They have changed it - it was the first place I went. It used to be imf.org - but I can't get through. No worries - it was purely out of interest.
spastic...
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/exesum.pdf
 
#10
And in Airstrip One... Big Brother has increased the chocolate ration from 10 Grams to 5 Grams.
 

Alsacien

MIA
Moderator
#11
Alsacien said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Alsacien said:
From yesterdays wire:

The IMF raises its global growth forecast from 3.9 to 4.2% for this year
Last I heard was 4.1% - you don't have a linky do you Alsacien?
Not one that would work for you......try the IMF site?
They have changed it - it was the first place I went. It used to be imf.org - but I can't get through. No worries - it was purely out of interest.
spastic...
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/exesum.pdf
and:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm
 
#14
Alsacien said:
Bazzinho1977 said:
Just because I have a helmet and crayons does not give you the right to call me a spastic.

Ta La
You have more crayons? I thought you had given them to IVV to colour in his swastika pictures :D
He swapped me them for his labboooon.
 
#15
Bazzinho1977 said:
miles_gloriosus said:
Not everything's going up - growth fgures 0.2% rather than 0.4% forecast:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8639160.stm

Love BBC's spin on it - 'economy contines to recover' ......'figures may be revised upwards' (not mentioning downwards). Also slight glossing over of the fact that the bulk of growth was in business and financial sector - obviously not ready to credit those dastardly city types yet.

BTW, would love to here Steph Flanders say 'stonking' - she's got the whole scary governess thing going on.

Any odds offered for downward revision and double-dip recession post election?
I will take that bet. I will give you odds of 5 to 1 on any amount over £100. But I get to take figures held or revised upwards.

PM to sort it out if you want.
Baz,

Saw today's figures and revisited the thread.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/10152610.stm

Must've missed your offer (lucky, really). I tip my hat!

Revision was upwards (albeit slightly). It seems my cynicism over pre-election tinkering was ill-founded.

Given current issues, I'm still not sure a double-dip is off the cards.
 

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