Double dip recession on the way?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by Le_addeur_noir, Feb 12, 2010.

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  1. With Spain releasing GDP figures stating their economy shrank by 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009,and Italy releasing figures stating their GDP shrank by 0.2% in the same peroid and the Germans releasing figures that thier economy grew by 0.1% in this period,are the major G20 economies sliding back into reccesion at the end of econic stimuli across these countries?.

    Of course Britain is claiming a 0.1% economic growth in the last quarter,but this is subject to revision,and given the British government's enonomy with the actualite,was this ststistic massaged anyway?,for electorial purposes.
     
  2. maguire

    maguire LE Book Reviewer

    the 0.1% of apparently falling into the range of error for the figures however... which I saw put at 0.5%. ho hum.
     
  3. Double-dip? Absolutely. As I've been predicting since 2007.
     
  4. And on the other thread some smart arrse was blurbing off about Europe being Out of Recession...!

    With the amount of Sink Nations that are now leaching from Europe, it shouldn't really take a City full of Bankers or Financial ""Experts"" to be able to see that unless they instigate a central European Treasury to control the entire single currency area, then it'll always be a case of the Tail-Wagging-the-Dog..

    You know, that Michael Fish has got allot to answer for.....
     
  5. Biped

    Biped LE Book Reviewer

    We might not be too badly off actually. We fcuked up so badly, our currency crashed, which is why we came to the end of the depre . . . . recession quite quickly.

    All these EU countries didn't have the get-out clause of devaluing their own currencies, so are stuck. On the other hand, the entire EU currency should start falling soon, which many on the continent will not be too unhappy about, for the same reason that the UK wasn't too upset. It will make us less competitive that the EU when the Euro plummets, and thus will balance things out for them.

    It thus follows that on currency values alone, we may yet follow the EU second dip as they become competitive with us again.
     
  6. I've been in business for just over 3 years, and - from my narrow viewpoint - things are tougher now than they have been at any point leading up. Companies simply aren't spending money, even when the returns are guaranteed.
     
  7. I'll second that.

    All the money that the Govt printed has run through the economy meaning nothing has been sorted in the Darwinian way that it should.

    Still much more pain to come. I hope that Labour wins the next election by a majority of around 4-5. This would allow all of their madness to come to fruition under their administration, destroying them for a generation or more. It would mean a bit more pain - but for real long term gain with an election in around two years time once the full magnitude of their stupidity has been realised.

    Get ready for the real economic pain - 2011 will be the year from hell for those in real business.
     
  8. Biped

    Biped LE Book Reviewer

    I said that before the last election, and actually thought all their incompetence had come home to roost and it was now safe for the tories. Looking at the opinion polls, Labour's game of creating a massive client state, looking to Labour for their freebies has worked.

    I think that if they get in for another term, it won't matter if they are ousted for 30 years afterwards, the UK will be finished.
     
  9. What's interesting is, despite everybody in the industry struggling, our (much less competent) competition have so far survived. However, I can't see how the Government are implicated in that.

    Though I agree with Biped that the UK won't survive another Labour term.
     
  10. Would this be the 0.1% that seemingly took no account of the blip possibly being caused by the previous 3 months?
     
  11. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    I guess you mean me? Coming from a financial genius such as yourself I will take that as a complement.
    Maybe to support your theory you can explain this line which appears to have bottomed out and is now consistently rising?
    http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=119.ESA.Q.I5.S.0000.B1QG00.1000.TTTT.L.U.R
    I don't think a degree in economics is required to understand what it means - assuming of course you understand what a recession is.....
    Of course if you have some mystical wisdom or some great theory based on your profound knowledge, my clients at the Frankfurt Borse would love to hear them....(but tell me first - there would definately be a few quid, or Euros if you prefer, to be made)
     
  12. I work in the construction industry dealing with medium to large commercial projects (Hospitals, industrial estates, and hotels/motels), there is little government money going in, the banks wont lend to main clients.
    Some sub-contractors are still buying jobs, but that will not continue much longer.

    The construction industry is usually the first to be hit, and the first to recover. We are still deeply in recession from my view point.

    Delta your less competent opposition, are possibly going in cheap, or as I said above buying jobs?
     
  13. Alsacien

    Alsacien LE Moderator

    0.1% is important politically because 0.0% would mean UK is still in recession....... :wink: of course 0.1% in a quarter that includes Christmas has not exactly set the markets to positive...
     
  14. Only if you believe in democracy :evil:

    Seriously I agree with David Starkey that Parliament is so broken we need to start again. Look at the TEA Party movements in the US at the moment. We need a bit of that here.
     
  15. Yes very interesting graph. The shape of the curve is fascinating

    Let's see if the shape reminds us of something.... Look very carefully at the following letter for a clue - W