Do you think that we are moving into a post-American world?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by KGB_resident, May 6, 2008.

?
  1. No doubt

    12.8%
  2. Rather yes

    23.4%
  3. Maybe but very slowly

    38.3%
  4. Position of the USA remains unchanged

    21.3%
  5. Soon America will rule the World

    4.3%

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  1. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/books/06kaku.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

    How quickly mr.Zakaria has changed his mind. Do you agree with his vision?
     
  2. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    Yes - next?

    Come on Sergey - need to do better than that.
     
  3. in_the_cheapseats

    in_the_cheapseats LE Moderator

    Deleted - double entry.......
     
  4. i dont think that their position has changed vastly.

    id say that other counties are catching them up, china, russia etc

    there is still a loooong way to go though
     
  5. The Cold War was characterised by the US and the Soviet Union's dominance of their respective zones of influence by continuously flexing their muscles: military, political and economic. The Soviet Union's collapse was particularly spectacular due to their inability to back their threats post-1989.

    The US has managed to maintain its dominance with a mixture of sticks and carrots. However, more and more states are realising that for every carrot, their is a lengthy string attached. And many have now concluded that those strings are of bigger nuisance than the benefits that the carrots bring. I mean, even though the US may remain as the dominant economic power, others will be less impressed or beholden to the lure of the dollar. Take Venezuela as a prime, but extreme, example.

    The US and Russia are thus experiencing the very same problems: political credibility. Russia is having immense problems convincing neighbours and states that it can be a trusted ally and partner. It may have found new riches, but everyone knows their generosity also comes with VERY lengthy strings attached. The US is having immense problems convincing past allies and friends that it has more to offer than just a fleet of bombers to smash up a few cities.
     
  6. No - the issues the US has today - particularly education and social - can and I suspect will be corrected to a large extent. The lack of universal healthcare will inevitably be corrected. In the long run, only India and China have an ability to match the US economically due to their populations, but I doubt they'll ever match US productivity per head of population. I also don't think either can match the sense of purpose the US has as a nation in relation to itself and the rest of the world.

    As for today?: In the US the fact that low-wage workers can no longer afford their homes sends the global economy into panic. In China, in a seperate development, the stock market has slipped 50% since October - who cares?
     
  7. Quite probably.

    The British Empire began to feel the chill winds of competition from Germany, France, Italy and the US back in the late 1800s but it took another 100 years for it to be dismantled.

    Life is faster now so US power will ebb away faster - say within 25 years.

    The US and EU currently provide most of the world's innovations with the east doing the production. In the fullness of time the east will also be competing on innovations whilst still having vast populations and land to increase production still further. Leaving the US and EU where?
     
  8. Yes China is growing rapidly but we are already seeing signs of how fragile they are. Take the ongoing Olympics controversy over Human Rights and Pollution levels. Their Political intolerance is sure to win few Allies and i think they are over reaching themselves by rapid industrilisation which is creating huge social and environmental problems. In the Long run i am sure that the States and Britain for that matter will still be hugely influential in the world stage. ( Well considering we still have an Armed Forces in the next 15 years.)
     
  9. I suppose it depends on one’s perspective.

    The current growing pains of China might be compared to the American Civil War. 100 years later the US dominated the planet.
     
  10. Well id rather sink from Global Warming then the Chinese rule the land!
     
  11. God forbid that America would "rule the world"...a dark day indeed.
    however i do agree with some of the previous comments which say Americas power will disintergrate in time (most likely due to there over stretching).

    with regards to China; I dont think they need many allies due to their vast numbers (in terms of military brunt).

    I dont think America will have the oppurtunity to expand within the next few decades because I feel that another world war is overdue (most likely between the superpowers; Russia,China,America etc) especially due to the increasing competition for natural resources.
     
  12. USA is in a much better demographic position than China or the EU. China will be the first country in world history to get old before it gets rich.
     
  13. American military dominance was built on economic dominance. That economic dominance is currently wilting a bit. I think they're over-stretched and will have to contract. China will push out a bit, maybe a lot, but they have their own huge population to keep in line. Other regional powers will push out a bit in the gap areas.
     
  14. So, which credible contender would you prefer?

    I'm inclined to think that the US reached it's peak in the early 90's, what with there being no serious opposition at that point, but the decline will be a lot longer than 25 years. Hopefully they'll still be calling the shots when I pop my clogs, they're far from perfect but better them than some autocratic knobsters with tendencies to shoot the opposition.
    I quite agree. I think what we're seeing now is the beginnings of jostling for influence and resources. In 10 years I would guess the power ratio will be:

    1st - U.S
    2nd - China
    3rd - India
    4th - EU

    In 20 years I'd swap China and India around, and in 30 India and the US. Random guesswork and wishful thinking maybe, but if I were to choose a successor to the United States I'd prefer India over pretty much anyone else.