Do you think a market crash is coming?

Remember though that during the pandemic there’s been huge amounts of capital left lying around. People and company’s became cash rich. Investments weren’t made, capital expenditure projects were delayed.

That’s 18 months of spending that never happened.

If you look at the U.K., Brexit increased those issues. Not in a a much as brexit is a bad thing, but business held off on investment decisions until they knew what was actually happening. Now we know what’s happening relating to brexit we’re seeing things move again.

Increased fuel prices normally indicate bad things are about to happen, however scratch the surface of that and you’ll find out increased fuel prices are due to different issues this time around.

Personally I think we’ll be able to spend our way out of any problems in the short term. But I think it’ll hit in a few years time.

I liken this time were in as a post war boom.
I see fleets of trucks leaving the UK every day for the NL full of fruit and veg, grown in Lincolnshire. It's sent to cold stores in NL, a couple of days later, it is all shipped back again in Irish trucks (Hannon/Kelly European) and driven to cold stores in Dublin/Belfast. This is then distributed back to the UK for Lidl and Aldi.
Despite the fact that EU subsidies are no longer there, they are still doing this. That's why your fruit and veg doesn't last long and that's why the prices are going up. They're trying to maintain the same practices without the same EU handouts, which is burning the consumer.
 
I agree that there is a lot of pent up spending, but there is also a lot of spending that has simply been lost. The haircuts not got, the restaurant meals not eaten, the taxi journeys not taken, the movies not watched, the night in a hotel room not spent, the pint in the pub not drank. That's billions of dollars that should have gone into businesses that can never now be spent, almost two years of lost revenue.

The big businesses that were able to sit tight, cut costs and survive on reserves, will probably pull through although even a lot of them, airlines being the obvious example, are going to go to the wall. But who knows how many hairdressers, local pubs, specialty shops, family restaurants etc are gone and will never come back? The rest of us, despite all talk of "revenge spending" are sitting very tightly on whatever money we have saved and looking at rising fuel and food prices and not running out to book a fortnight in the Maldives any time soon.

You make a good point about a post-war boom but they are often followed by almighty crashes. We can quibble over whether it's six months or 18 months but the crash is coming, to me that's now abundantly clear. We churned the cheap money machine like billy-oh after 2008 and that kept us going for 10 years, but like Wylie Coyote who has run furiously off the cliff and is only now realising it, our little legs are spinning like crazy to no obvious effect and there's only one way we're going.
There’s always a crash on its way. I’m surprised we haven’t had one already even before the pandemic.

I always work on the assumption 8 years good and two years bad.
 
Juts put a stop loss onthem - or if your worried they may go up then use a trailing stop loss.

You just have o be realistic about your risk.

best of luck
 
There’s always a crash on its way. I’m surprised we haven’t had one already even before the pandemic.

I always work on the assumption 8 years good and two years bad.
I think we are in broad agreement. It's just that I fear that what's coming is not just the usual once-in-a-decade downturn it's an existential crisis. This one is going to be global and leave a mark that will be seen in history. I believe countries are going to go bust and not just the usual suspects of Argentina or Zimbabwe but some very much closer to hand. The entire world system of finance that we have operated under since the end of WWII is about to be overturned, what it will be replaced by I have no idea but it won't be as congenial as we have known.

As the father of young kids I desperately hope I am wrong, and no one will be happier than me if we revisit this in September 2023 and we're popping the champagne corks and I am eating my hat.
 
Not enough cokeheads on Arrse for it to really compete in the City. But on the plus side, the pervert contingent is probably over represented.

How many ex Cavalry and Household Division officers have we got - enough to arrange a proper financial scandal and establish some credibility?
**** you man, I’m up to 3 cans of coke a day, I started on diet, but wasn’t getting the hit, I soon progressed to full fat coke, but man, I got the hit I need from Max! (Other drug dealers are available)
 
I think we are in broad agreement. It's just that I fear that what's coming is not just the usual once-in-a-decade downturn it's an existential crisis. This one is going to be global and leave a mark that will be seen in history. I believe countries are going to go bust and not just the usual suspects of Argentina or Zimbabwe but some very much closer to hand. The entire world system of finance that we have operated under since the end of WWII is about to be overturned, what it will be replaced by I have no idea but it won't be as congenial as we have known.

As the father of young kids I desperately hope I am wrong, and no one will be happier than me if we revisit this in September 2023 and we're popping the champagne corks and I am eating my hat.
We’ve had people saying this will happen for a long time. In fact, to a certain extent we lived through it in 2008.

Post 2008 things were horrific…..although I have to say looking back it did it seem as bad as it was made out to be.

We’ve had surprisingly low interest rates since then. The smart people started to pay down debt. The not so smart people started spending that additional money they had and spent it.

My genuine biggest concern is that many people have carried on as normal.

I’ve found myself out of work recently. The big shock was We’d dropped all the rainy day money on a hefty tax bill and a new dog for the kids. Fortunately though, things have panned out reasonably well. Quick off the blacks finding other work. Payout from work means I’ve actually made money out of the situation, but it did get me thinking about how many other people are in these types of situations who can’t bounce back so quickly. Others who don’t have rainy day finds and live hand to mouth.

We’ll see people not adjusting for increased energy prices. People leaving Christmas shopping until the last minute and going into debt over it.

I don’t think things will stabilise until we get back to a stage of not accepting debt as normal as it is.
 
Everywhere and I mean everywhere has signs up saying we're hiring. Market has at least eighteen months before an ho fluk moment.
I actually think Boris is either dead clever or very lucky and won't be PM when It happens.
When it does don't worry it's just nature's way of taking money off prudent and old people.
Single mothers and asylum seekers will still be able to run central heating at full blast with the doors open and every light on.
 
Never going to happen.

If you wan’t good financial advice be prepared to pay for it. The free ones aren’t worth it.

If you want good advice on what individual shares to buy and sell today then yep, that doesn't come cheap.

But over the long term it's well known that very few fund managers "beat the market". If you have time before you need the money stick it in an index tracker, one that fits inside an ISA, and just don't worry about it. That's good advice for free!
 
Everywhere and I mean everywhere has signs up saying we're hiring. Market has at least eighteen months before an ho fluk moment.
I actually think Boris is either dead clever or very lucky and won't be PM when It happens.
When it does don't worry it's just nature's way of taking money off prudent and old people.
Single mothers and asylum seekers will still be able to run central heating at full blast with the doors open and every light on.

Yes money is cheap now, has been for years, which means it's easy to get a large loan at a very low interest rate. Savvy players will be using that money to acquire productive assets so when the wheels fall off the money has been converted to real value that pays for itself. But I fear most are just pissing it up the wall and will have nothing to show when the bills come due - and they will.
 
We’ve had people saying this will happen for a long time. In fact, to a certain extent we lived through it in 2008.

Post 2008 things were horrific…..although I have to say looking back it did it seem as bad as it was made out to be.

We’ve had surprisingly low interest rates since then. The smart people started to pay down debt. The not so smart people started spending that additional money they had and spent it.

My genuine biggest concern is that many people have carried on as normal.

I’ve found myself out of work recently. The big shock was We’d dropped all the rainy day money on a hefty tax bill and a new dog for the kids. Fortunately though, things have panned out reasonably well. Quick off the blacks finding other work. Payout from work means I’ve actually made money out of the situation, but it did get me thinking about how many other people are in these types of situations who can’t bounce back so quickly. Others who don’t have rainy day finds and live hand to mouth.

We’ll see people not adjusting for increased energy prices. People leaving Christmas shopping until the last minute and going into debt over it.

I don’t think things will stabilise until we get back to a stage of not accepting debt as normal as it is.
In 2008 we barely skited through and uncomfortable as it is for curmudgeons like me to acknowledge it was the Chinese Communists who bailed out western capitalism (for their own very selfish reasons let it be said), but even then we all said the second boot was going to drop. For over a decade the boot never dropped and I think a lot of us got complacent.

I really fear that the second boot is hurtling floorward at this moment. Like you, having got my fingers burned badly in 2008 I have been ultra-cautious ever since, no debt (although sometimes I wonder whether I wasn't a mug not filling my boots full of all that cheap money), everything bought and paid for and a bit put aside for the inevitable rainy day. I just worry that it's not a rainy day that's coming but a tsunami.

But like I say, I'm a curmudgeon, I like predicting doom and gloom. Perhaps like they always say, it really is different this time and we can reverse two millennia of basic economic thought and we really can borrow our way out of financial trouble.

Perhaps this generation really has discovered the philosopher's stone and is churning money out of nowhere to pay for today and not worry tomorrow. We'll see.
 
If in doubt - get a hamster - I shit thee not

Mr Goxx, the crypto-trading hamster beating human investors​

Similar was done in the 20s by economists. They achieved higher returns using the Nasdaq, a set of darts and a dart board rather than sound economic judgement.

Doesn’t mean much though as the market fluctuates constantly short term, the key is understanding the bigger issues on the horizon to sustain it.

Here’s another one for you.


Crashes happen because of lack of confidence.
 

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