Do you think a market crash is coming?

unicorn77

War Hero
I've got a dozen gold sovereigns. You pay a premium over scrap for them, but scrap price now exceeds what I paid so all good. I thought they might come in useful if things go to hell in a handcart here and we have to get to relatives in Texas (just as an e.g.) to pay the ferryman. then I thought we might need some small change so I bought 100 one oz. silver coins (which you don't pay a premium for as such, although you do pay VAT unlike gold). Whether they will / would ever serve that purpose idk, but it's a useful function of coinage, that you can't really apply to artworks, fine wines, persoanl number plates, etc.
 

Poppycock

War Hero
I predict things'll really go tits up when the poppies (accounting for 85% of the global smack supply) don't get planted by November

There's your sell-by deadline, one dependent on the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan government's domestic policy

Ironic innit?
 
be very careful what you buy, who you buy it and who you buy it from.
I found a dealer in London that was also featured on a documentary series about the economy. All very above board

They're not the cheapest but they're reputable. I bought the missus a gold bar for her birthday (relax, it was about the size of a sim card) to test the water.

The place looked like it had a secret entrance to the Kingsmen HQ.

Definitely not some moody gold from a cash converters.
 
At the moment I've got £30k invested in stocks and shares and starting to worry a bit about the potential for a crash to wipe some of that out. I'm holding for the long term but just a bit jittery right now, what do people think?
A mate of mine has made a small fortune (over £150k) during the pandemic.

he’s made that fortune by buying up stocks and shares from people who panicked and sold theres.

there’s two ways of making money from the stock market. The slow and low method of wait until the dividend pays off or the more riskier secondary market of buying and selling.

as a general rule I’d say that very few companies go completely t*ts up and you lose those shares.

personally, I’d sit on them. The pandemic has resulted in a depressed market due to lack of investment.

these investments are starting to come on like now and companies are starting to grow.

I did a case study a few years back. Groups of us were told to look at the share value of big blue chip British businesses. I ended up looking at Big and Expensive. Every time they were in the news for bribery, the share price fell through the floor. 12 months later they always came back up to above the original share price. If I had the spare cash and the motivation I’d be looking at all of those depressed shares due to bad news stories and investing any cash in them to sell off at a later date.
 

Site Admin

Old-Salt
At the moment I've got £30k invested in stocks and shares and starting to worry a bit about the potential for a crash to wipe some of that out. I'm holding for the long term but just a bit jittery right now, what do people think?

It does seem like you've climbed into the cockpit of a 747 somehow taken off with only a cursory flip-through the manual and now realised you'll need to land at some point.

Which market and where? In answer to the thread title 'No, I know there is a market crash coming; it's called a business cycle for a reason.' Or in other words; Something seems to go wrong roughly every decade. Yes we've just had Covid which in some ways was a black swan... so is that THE crash for this decade one wonders???

You have to decide whether you're a trader or an investor. A trader typically works on much shorter time horizons whilst an investor is usually committed to holding a security/asset for years.

Either way study the leading/trailing indicators and the PMI to make predictions about what might happen in the medium/long term; where there is a long term trend you can make a prediction. As with virtually everything else these days; the mainstream media are diabolically clueless in these matters and only report on what's happening NOW. Traders and investors are mainly interested in the future.

As someone else said Crapto is worth a small punt as it's gone well well beyond a fad now that financial institutions and whole countries are getting on board. I don't pay that much attention but all I seem to hear about is how the Blockchain is the real underlying valuable technology due to it's data security, but then at the same time I seem to frequently hear about exchanges getting hacked and emptied, which does warm the cockles.

REITS maybe of interest to diversify into property without having to fix leaking taps.

It's possibly worth giving some of your money to someone who actually knows what they're doing AND has a good track record AND actually invests THEIR OWN money into the fund they're managing. You'd be surprised how many fund managers don't do this. Terry Smith at Fundmsith fits this bill quite well and is quite an interesting and pragmatic character to boot. I think he's got something like £250 million of his own cash invested in his fund(s) so he's obviously committed. His annual AGM (again in the minority in the industry offering this service) on youtube is usually an interesting watch with not too much jargon.

There's many more things I suppose I could say but first and foremost you need to get yourself educated. Properly. Which isn't an easy task in of itself; lots of online cowboys out there who don't seem to want to publish their own independently verified track record...
 
the world is marching towards something called blockchain, which is underpinned by crypto.
That’s the wrong way round; crypto is underpinned by blockchain. Blockchain has all sorts of other uses, from engineering to medical and across finance. Several of the major stock exchanges are running blockchain trials. If and when they launch, it will revolutionise the way be trade and hold stocks.

Here’s a podcast which gives a simple explanation of blockchain.

 
That’s the wrong way round; crypto is underpinned by blockchain. Blockchain has all sorts of other uses, from engineering to medical and across finance. Several of the major stock exchanges are running blockchain trials. If and when they launch, it will revolutionise the way be trade and hold stocks.

Here’s a podcast which gives a simple explanation of blockchain.


I know it is the wrong way round!

I’m unemployed so forgetting everything!
 

Gone2ratshat

Clanker
If you are unsure of what you are doing then buy bricks and mortar or land, with £30k you may get a small industrial unit or a pony paddock, maybe use the £30k as a deposit for something bigger that will pay it's own mortgage?
 
Here's your risk. its grim in the US also and there is an old saying which is the US sneezes and the world catches a cold.

It’s pretty obvious that the global asset boom driven by free money has to end sometime. The question is, will it be a correction or an outright crash?

Where I live, an hour north of Sydney, house prices have doubled in two years. It’s a mad feeding frenzy built on interest rates that are way too low and tax breaks that favour existing property owners investing in a second or more house. The whole thing is built on stacked equity; people using the inflated equity in one property to buy the next. In the meantime, real productivity has fallen and wages are stagnant.

It has to collapse.
 
It's in the OED now - things are getting stranger by the year:

https://www.lexico.com/definition/cromulent[/URLW [/
As soon as I heard the word I realized it would become real .
Words mean whatever you want them to.
Context is most of it .
Cromulance
Cromulise
Cromulate
Are now all bouncing round the lexicon. If you use them in correct context other people start using it and then it becomes a word.
 

Airblade

Clanker
It’s pretty obvious that the global asset boom driven by free money has to end sometime. The question is, will it be a correction or an outright crash?

Where I live, an hour north of Sydney, house prices have doubled in two years. It’s a mad feeding frenzy built on interest rates that are way too low and tax breaks that favour existing property owners investing in a second or more house. The whole thing is built on stacked equity; people using the inflated equity in one property to buy the next. In the meantime, real productivity has fallen and wages are stagnant.

It has to collapse.
This year? Next?
 
This year? Next?
In the next six months is my bet.

China's economy, the only thing that kept the world afloat the last time around, is about to hit the buffers, maybe it won't be Evergrande, although I can't see how it won't be, but China's Lehman Bros moment is coming.

Then the whole global Ponzi scheme built on cheap credit will pop.
 
In the next six months is my bet.

China's economy, the only thing that kept the world afloat the last time around, is about to hit the buffers, maybe it won't be Evergrande, although I can't see how it won't be, but China's Lehman Bros moment is coming.

Then the whole global Ponzi scheme built on cheap credit will pop.
Remember though that during the pandemic there’s been huge amounts of capital left lying around. People and company’s became cash rich. Investments weren’t made, capital expenditure projects were delayed.

That’s 18 months of spending that never happened.

If you look at the U.K., Brexit increased those issues. Not in a a much as brexit is a bad thing, but business held off on investment decisions until they knew what was actually happening. Now we know what’s happening relating to brexit we’re seeing things move again.

Increased fuel prices normally indicate bad things are about to happen, however scratch the surface of that and you’ll find out increased fuel prices are due to different issues this time around.

Personally I think we’ll be able to spend our way out of any problems in the short term. But I think it’ll hit in a few years time.

I liken this time were in as a post war boom.
 
Remember though that during the pandemic there’s been huge amounts of capital left lying around. People and company’s became cash rich. Investments weren’t made, capital expenditure projects were delayed.

That’s 18 months of spending that never happened.

If you look at the U.K., Brexit increased those issues. Not in a a much as brexit is a bad thing, but business held off on investment decisions until they knew what was actually happening. Now we know what’s happening relating to brexit we’re seeing things move again.

Increased fuel prices normally indicate bad things are about to happen, however scratch the surface of that and you’ll find out increased fuel prices are due to different issues this time around.

Personally I think we’ll be able to spend our way out of any problems in the short term. But I think it’ll hit in a few years time.

I liken this time were in as a post war boom.
I agree that there is a lot of pent up spending, but there is also a lot of spending that has simply been lost. The haircuts not got, the restaurant meals not eaten, the taxi journeys not taken, the movies not watched, the night in a hotel room not spent, the pint in the pub not drank. That's billions of dollars that should have gone into businesses that can never now be spent, almost two years of lost revenue.

The big businesses that were able to sit tight, cut costs and survive on reserves, will probably pull through although even a lot of them, airlines being the obvious example, are going to go to the wall. But who knows how many hairdressers, local pubs, specialty shops, family restaurants etc are gone and will never come back? The rest of us, despite all talk of "revenge spending" are sitting very tightly on whatever money we have saved and looking at rising fuel and food prices and not running out to book a fortnight in the Maldives any time soon.

You make a good point about a post-war boom but they are often followed by almighty crashes. We can quibble over whether it's six months or 18 months but the crash is coming, to me that's now abundantly clear. We churned the cheap money machine like billy-oh after 2008 and that kept us going for 10 years, but like Wylie Coyote who has run furiously off the cliff and is only now realising it, our little legs are spinning like crazy to no obvious effect and there's only one way we're going.
 

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