Do you think a market crash is coming?

Airblade

Clanker
At the moment I've got £30k invested in stocks and shares and starting to worry a bit about the potential for a crash to wipe some of that out. I'm holding for the long term but just a bit jittery right now, what do people think?
 
The next crash is always out there on or just over the horizon. If by "long term" you mean more than 5 years then historically you'll be ok, problem comes if you bottle it when the prices drop and sell low. To that end are you managing the shares yourself or are you paying someone to run a strategy in a managed fund and do you understand the risk profiles if in a fund?
 
At the moment I've got £30k invested in stocks and shares and starting to worry a bit about the potential for a crash to wipe some of that out. I'm holding for the long term but just a bit jittery right now, what do people think?
Don't take financial advice from random strangers on a military themed internet forum that attracts alkys, nutters and liars.

Just saying...
 
it’s all relative to the time period that you’re looking at. I bought some stock a few months ago at $12. The following week it dropped to $10.50. Bonus. Within 6 weeks it had recovered to $16. Now, it’s dropped back to $13. So over the initial week of ownership the value lost ~15%. Had I bought at that time and sold 6 weeks later I’d have made just shy of 60%. As it is, my investment’s gained about 8% in a few months.

That particular stock was trading in the 40s about 20 years ago, and the 52-week low is in the 6s. Buying at say $6.50 and selling at $16 would be a return of over 200%. But that’s taking a trading view, not an investment view.
 
If you can afford to lose that amount, why worry. If you can't afford to lose it, you probably shouldn't have speculated in the first place.
 
I take it that you are either an Ally, a nutter, or a liar, or all three,
else you wouldn't be posting on this forum :)
I'm quite Ally. I like to think so anyway...
 

FORMER_FYRDMAN

LE
Book Reviewer
Don't take financial advice from random strangers on a military themed internet forum that attracts alkys, nutters and liars.

Just saying...

From your summary, I think Arrse is superbly equipped to take its rightful place in the Financial Services industry.
 
From your summary, I think Arrse is superbly equipped to take its rightful place in the Financial Services industry.
Not enough cokeheads on Arrse for it to really compete in the City. But on the plus side, the pervert contingent is probably over represented.

How many ex Cavalry and Household Division officers have we got - enough to arrange a proper financial scandal and establish some credibility?
 

cowgoesmoo

Old-Salt
Yes. But if I knew when i'd be a millionaire!

2 thoughts:

1) It'll only cost you money if you sell. Shares go up, shares go down, over the long term they go up-up. Unless you need to sell (in which case having that invested in shares is probably not a good idea to start with!) then doing nothing has proved to be the best long term option historically.

2) What else would you do with the money? Inflations running at somewhere between 2% and 4% and likely to stay there for a while, so keeping it in cash in savings account paying 0.1% will cost you. Bonds near the top of a 40 year run and only going one way if when interest rates rise. BTL no longer the cash cow it once was, plus society (and the opposition/next government) views you as the devil incarnate who should be taxed out of existence.
 

Airblade

Clanker
Yes. But if I knew when i'd be a millionaire!

2 thoughts:

1) It'll only cost you money if you sell. Shares go up, shares go down, over the long term they go up-up. Unless you need to sell (in which case having that invested in shares is probably not a good idea to start with!) then doing nothing has proved to be the best long term option historically.

2) What else would you do with the money? Inflations running at somewhere between 2% and 4% and likely to stay there for a while, so keeping it in cash in savings account paying 0.1% will cost you. Bonds near the top of a 40 year run and only going one way if when interest rates rise. BTL no longer the cash cow it once was, plus society (and the opposition/next government) views you as the devil incarnate who should be taxed out of existence.
I want the days of 5% interest on easy saver accounts back basically
 
I want the days of 5% interest on easy saver accounts back basically

Never going to happen.

If you wan’t good financial advice be prepared to pay for it. The free ones aren’t worth it.
 
Never going to happen.

If you wan’t good financial advice be prepared to pay for it. The free ones aren’t worth it.
Don't know about that? Some of the suggestions so far have been hugely entertaining.
 
It depends entirely what stock you are invested in and what sort of returns you are looking for and also the blend of companies, sectors and risk/return you are looking for. At the end of the day - that's what its all about - balancing risk and return.

There have been some big swings in share price in some stock during covid in the FTSE, but for the most part, as long as the company has a strong balance sheet, it will work through the shit storm. The problem with FTSE stock is the returns are a long term game. You will make money (eventually) providing you pick the right sale point, but you will not retire on the growth.

AIM is a bit more sporty and its where you will see good returns if you place the right bets. A few IPOs have goen tits up recently, but that's no surprise as the companies should never have opened at the share price they have opened at - that incorrect valuation, which you can put down to poor advisors. The obvious ones have had problems - Delivaroo for example.

The City doesnt really get tech and next gen technologies - Blue Prism are a a rare example of an IPO success (from an investment perspective. Share price tanked because they are losing money hand over fist and (In my opinion) they are over valued, but every one has made a shit load of of them. Their technology is shite and the latest jump is because they are strongly rumoured to be going to delist and go to Private Equity. Alistair Bathgate is a w@nker, and he's gone now, but everyone bought the drram and made money. There are other 'Blue Prism's about - you just have to keep your eyes open. Again, spread your bets if you invest in AIM stock. AIM is the 'wild west'.

Crypto and Blockchain are fascinating. Prices are up and down like a whores knickers, but you aren't dealing in stock, you are dealing in currency, but it behaves like tech stock in terms of how its traded (because it is tech). Personally, I'd stick 5k of your money into Etherium Classic, but beware, it will go down. Make sure you pull it when you have made 20% then buy back in at less than you sold for - follow that rule and you should be OK.

Big issues coming are US inflation and China. Difficult to say how markets will react. Personally I think its a good reason to stick some cash into Crypto.

Green agenda is interesting - again. Depends on what risk/reward you are looking for. Carbon footprint reducing technology will do well I think, but watch out for the IPOs on AIM.

US tech stock is always a good bet by the way.

EIS investment through people like Octopus is a load of w@nk in my opinion unless you are looking to off-set tax liabilities, which si why people do it.

That's my take on it at the minute.
 
At the moment I've got £30k invested in stocks and shares and starting to worry a bit about the potential for a crash to wipe some of that out. I'm holding for the long term but just a bit jittery right now, what do people think?

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