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Discussion - How would YOU fix Iraq?

#1
Blair to speak with Iraq Study Group

LONDON -- British Prime Minister Tony Blair will speak via video link with officials of the Iraq Study Group on Tuesday to discuss "U.K. ideas on Iraq and the Middle East," a Blair spokeswoman said Saturday.

The spokeswoman declined to detail what Blair would say to the bipartisan U.S. panel, which is headed by former Secretary of State James Baker III and Lee Hamilton, a former Democratic congressman from Indiana.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...ll=chi-newsnationworld-hed&ctrack=1&cset=true

As it has been noted on Arrse since longtime, and possibly even before the invas.... ooops liberation , the US and UK Governments really haven't the first clue on what needs to be done to solve the Iraq issue.

If YOU had to give evidence or advice to the ISG , what would you say?

Sensible points only please , not the 'glass covered car park' line.

Don't think any ideas or views you have may be stupid or ill-concieved, can they be any worse than the decisions that led us to this in the first place?

So let's have the discussison , what would YOU do to solve the Iraq security and governance issue?
 
#2
OK , PTP , no instant sunshine lines
If the U.S. and U.K. pull out any time in the near future, say goodbye to Iraq as a Sovereign Nation.
The Kurds in the north already have pretty much autonomous rule
The Sunni and Shia sects are armed to the teeth and ready to fight whomever gets in the foresight.

Organise a U.N. type carve up and get rid of the country, certain parts to Iran, Syria , Kuwait and even The Kurds in the north could have their very own bit of Heaven on Earth.
Hang on didn't we do this in 1918/19 and see how that worked out.
Personally, i'd say divide the country and instal a U.N. green zone between Iran and Kuwaiti interests(the Oil fields near Basrah).
Oh and have every member of the U.N. supply troops to police the Green zone too
 
#3
The only way is to pull out all the coalition forces and turn off the media for 10 years. By that time the issue may have resolved itself.

As the suggestion is neither feasible nor humane, nor will infidel involvement help matters, I'd ask the UAE to become involved in helping to separate yet unify the different factions.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#4
I've said this in other threads PTP, but from my reading the UK staff on the ground at about day 7 in Basra had it right. Just as the looting started they pulled in elders and clerics. The nature of the vast majority of the locals places religion high, and this should have been utilised as soon as the decision to de-Baath the country occured. If I had to suggest a policy it would be a cross sectarian religious council to be part of the system, wouldn't happen over night, but I think that that was the natural inclination of British commanders on the ground, evidence of some good local knowledge in my opinion. Added to this assistance from all the surrounding neigbours, despite the artistic divisions of the peninsula post WWI, there is still a strong Arab identity, and despite of the obvious sectarian differences, the Muslims in the region have more in common historically and culturally than in difference.

Do I think that this will happen? Not a chance, for one obvious reason, and (tinfoil hat on) perhaps the reason that the peninsula was divided in the first instance.
 
#5
1. Deal with the Israeli / Palestine issue.
2. Parity with the way the West (US in particular) deals with the Israeli’s and Arabs.
3. Encourage Israel to comply with UN Resolutions (yeah I know… more chance of drinking the Atlantic dry with a straw) or at least impose similar restrictions and penalties as those imposed on the other nations in the area for non-compliance.
4. Research and impliment other technologies as soon as possible in the West to remove our dependance on Oil, then withdraw and leave them too enjoy the sand and oil that no one wants....


But really Bush and his Poodle really have got us into a situation that is going to be very very hard to get out of without causing more of a bloodbath than it already is.
 
#6
1. Recognise and accept that Iraq is irrevocably broken as a unified state.
2. Plan for the 'best' multi-state solution - with ordinary Iraqi interests paramount not re-election prospects in US/UK.
3. Recognise and accept that 'we' broke Iraq and hope that accepting responsibilty and moving forward with humility brings onside the wider muslim community worldwide.
4. Accept responsibilty for the situation and put hands deep into pockets to finance a 'real' infrastructure rebuilding programme for the benefit of the ordinary Iraqi - not the profit and earnings potential of US firms.
5. Encourage 'true' reform of the UN which empowers the UN to make and enact consensus policy, raise it's own robust military force, and give it responsibility for regional peace, security and stability.
6. Allow Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear programme.
7. International enforcement of Israeli withdrawal to pre-1967 borders.
8. Recognise Syria as a (minor) regional power-broker.

Last three may seem a little irrelevant, but a middle-east policy is needed not an Iraq policy in isolation. Anyone who thinks these are unrelated is not living in the 'real' world.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#7
Merk, this would be a terrible solution. The only way that such a move, federation at best, further divided peninsula at worst, would not be seen as further divisive division would be in the context of a more electoral representative and federated peninsula, something again I can't see happening in the near future. It's struck me as an irony that in a world where boundaries are being attempted to be brought down, this region with so much cultural homogeneity is so divided. I know that some would argue it’s down to Tribalism, which may play a part, but I'm not convinced. I'm also not convinced that these differences are currently not being emphasised rather than extenuated.
 
#8
Get back as many Baath party members as you can, who haven't been killed by the yanks and hope they can re secularise Iraq before it is too late.
 
#9
No form of democracy will work - tribal interests over-ride.This rules out any friendly-Arab intervention.
Just get out. Give locals a DTG and stick to it. What happens when we are gone is really just bringing forwards what they would have fought to achieve over a longer period. There will be many deaths but that is happening now.
These are very unpleasant factors and go against all we think we stand for. However, our methods are not working because they are not the methods acceptable to the Iraqi people.
Make it very clear that any outside intervention will be dealt with. Were I an Iraqi war-lord this would not worry me. My racial cleansing would be over before UN had had the first meeting so how we may influence anything is a mystery.
Same consideration applies to any measures designed to curb any adventurous forays from Iraq. With what we have seen, I doubt that many would do anything if there were a Kuwait Invasion Mk II. Settlement of Palestine/Israel question does not figure here - that would take years as anything more serious would require a re-run of latest Iraq style offensive with similar results.
So - get out and leave them to it. Long term plan? God knows.
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#10
OldRedCap said:
No form of democracy will work - tribal interests over-ride.This rules out any friendly-Arab intervention.
Just get out. Give locals a DTG and stick to it. What happens when we are gone is really just bringing forwards what they would have fought to achieve over a longer period. There will be many deaths but that is happening now.
These are very unpleasant factors and go against all we think we stand for. However, our methods are not working because they are not the methods acceptable to the Iraqi people.
Make it very clear that any outside intervention will be dealt with. Were I an Iraqi war-lord this would not worry me. My racial cleansing would be over before UN had had the first meeting so how we may influence anything is a mystery.
Same consideration applies to any measures designed to curb any adventurous forays from Iraq. With what we have seen, I doubt that many would do anything if there were a Kuwait Invasion Mk II. Settlement of Palestine/Israel question does not figure here - that would take years as anything more serious would require a re-run of latest Iraq style offensive with similar results.
So - get out and leave them to it. Long term plan? God knows.
Ok OldRedCap, but if you cut and run, and this scenario doesn't happen and some pragmatic regional solution is found let there be no stamping of feet if it doesn't quite turn out to be the bloodbath or chaos envisaged, and turns out to be against Western interests or agenda, which it most certainly would be. Certainly don't tell the neighbours that they can't resolve what is now a regional problem.

Surely this current affair is the ultimate outside intervention? Now direct neighbours can't try and stabilise their own area?
 
#11
The full nine yards...

Situation:
America flirts with imperialism, but always retreats as there are always limits to its stamina.
America adopts limited war strategies that end in a draw.
America never leaves a valuable legacy whereever its foot treads.
It retreats then to absenteeism from the world stage.

Summary:
American power has significant limits despite its size.
Political will seeping away and American impatience for withdrawal will accelerate exponentially.

Strategy:
Empowerment of Iraqi leadership increased massively (to include demonstrations of power with a Praetorian inner guard)
Signal withdrawal plans early and keep promising withdrawal and demonstrate this by early examples.
Engagement with surrounding Arab states of withdrawal process and research their possible actions, but don't expect too much other than window dressing here.

Execution:
Rolling withdrawal sector by sector.
Sectors are equipped with 'packages' that comprise all stratas of insfrastructure.
However, acceptance that sectors will further deteriorate and then stabilise. Hold nerve as populace relocate.
Decamp to borders to protect from further insurgency.
Withdrawal.

Mission:
Restore de facto 'dictatorship'

...you did ask.
 
#12
BoomShackerLacker said:
The full nine yards...

Situation:
America flirts with imperialism, but always retreats as there are always limits to its stamina.
America adopts limited war strategies that end in a draw.
America never leaves a valuable legacy whereever its foot treads.
It retreats then to absenteeism from the world stage.

Summary:
American power has significant limits despite its size.
Political will seeping away and American impatience for withdrawal will accelerate exponentially.

Strategy:
Empowerment of Iraqi leadership increased massively (to include demonstrations of power with a Praetorian inner guard)
Signal withdrawal plans early and keep promising withdrawal and demonstrate this by early examples.
Engagement with surrounding Arab states of withdrawal process and research their possible actions, but don't expect too much other than window dressing here.

Execution:
Rolling withdrawal sector by sector.
Sectors are equipped with 'packages' that comprise all stratas of insfrastructure.
However, acceptance that sectors will further deteriorate and then stabilise. Hold nerve as populace relocate.
Decamp to borders to protect from further insurgency.
Withdrawal.

Mission:
Restore de facto 'dictatorship'

...you did ask.
Yes the state of modern day Germany, Japan and South Korea is a savage indictment of US policies.
 
#13
I make no claim that mine is the DS solution - it was meant to be A solution. If things get sorted out regionally - that would be fine by me. Against our interests - more than what we have now you mean? Someone will come up about "the oil". The oilmen I knew all said that having oil was the easy bit. Problem was marketing it. We may be past Peak Oil but even with China and India in the offing there is limited blackmail opportunity. Even if they get preferred customer treatment, they still have to sell what they produce with their oil. See how everyone shouts when The Big Boys muck about with tariffs. I'd put our commercial expertise, allied to financial market supremacy, against Iraq anyday. You will tell me that the blockade of Rhodesia didn't work. That was because we didn't really try. Had the driver-airframe blokes in the Canberras been allowed to shake up a few (I think it was three?) bridges it would have been all done and dusted. So, the oil could be interdicted. UN would go for that after a lot of hand-wringing and a bit of politicial bribery.
Wanna Do would certainly lead to Can Do to Have Done. Wanna Do is the key.

Nehustan said:
OldRedCap said:
No form of democracy will work - tribal interests over-ride.This rules out any friendly-Arab intervention.
Just get out. Give locals a DTG and stick to it. What happens when we are gone is really just bringing forwards what they would have fought to achieve over a longer period. There will be many deaths but that is happening now.
These are very unpleasant factors and go against all we think we stand for. However, our methods are not working because they are not the methods acceptable to the Iraqi people.
Make it very clear that any outside intervention will be dealt with. Were I an Iraqi war-lord this would not worry me. My racial cleansing would be over before UN had had the first meeting so how we may influence anything is a mystery.
Same consideration applies to any measures designed to curb any adventurous forays from Iraq. With what we have seen, I doubt that many would do anything if there were a Kuwait Invasion Mk II. Settlement of Palestine/Israel question does not figure here - that would take years as anything more serious would require a re-run of latest Iraq style offensive with similar results.
So - get out and leave them to it. Long term plan? God knows.
Ok OldRedCap, but if you cut and run, and this scenario doesn't happen and some pragmatic regional solution is found let there be no stamping of feet if it doesn't quite turn out to be the bloodbath or chaos envisaged, and turns out to be against Western interests or agenda, which it most certainly would be. Certainly don't tell the neighbours that they can't resolve what is now a regional problem.

Surely this current affair is the ultimate outside intervention? Now direct neighbours can't try and stabilise their own area?
 

Nehustan

On ROPS
On ROPs
#14
ORC, I partly agree that the Iraqis have to sort this out, but leaving more chaos than there was prior will at least be considered abandonment, and some will see conspiracy written all over it.
 
#15
Interjection

...and a graphic illustration that the ideas pot is empty.

Iraqi PM urges cabinet reshuffle

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has called for a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle in light of the current situation in the country.
The announcement came as two suicide bombers killed 35 and injured 60 at a Baghdad police recruiting centre.

Crowds of young male volunteers were gathered at the base when the bombers detonated explosive belts.

Meanwhile, 33 bodies were recovered in Baghdad and nearby Diyala province in the past 24 hours, police told the BBC.

And as the US searches for new approaches to the crisis in Iraq, the White House said talks with Iran or Syria were among options to be discussed when President George W Bush meets the Iraq Study Group panel of advisers on Monday.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6141318.stm


If you needed a better example there no one has the first idea...

Anyway , back to Iraq , how to fix it.
 
#16
i) Realise and accept that a civil war is inevitable.

ii) withdraw multi national forces to police borders and prevent threat to neighbouring states (including northern automomous/kurdish area)

iii) Create refugee camps in sterile DMZ border areas under strict protection

iv) let the bastards crack on with it and kill each other (rather than us!)

v) once theyve finished and settled down to their respective regions, provide reconstruction package, paid for over 50 years from future oil revenues.
 
#17
I agree with ORC, Tribe rules All in Arab countries.
All Arabs I knew where devote Muslims.
So I will suggest there are two building blocks for a State.
I do not doubt that the last two countries who should be involved in Iraq's further developmeny are the two nations who above ALL are responsible for the presant mess, USA & UK.
Give them the bills to pay for Iraq's recovery.
Democracy is a Western Idea well suited to their populace and development.
A Strong Leader is what Arab people know and understand.
Did not Napoleon say that a Benevolent Dictartor was the best form of government.
john
Yes I know that all strong leaders will feather their nest, but what the West sees as Corruption is but the way of life in many Eastern Lands.
 
#18
Not that I think my opinion is worth much, but the means of improving the situation are pretty simple:
- Spend money properly instead of flushing down the drain on untraceable projects.
- Execute corrupt officials.
- Assist with peaceful ethnic cleansing --> echoes of the Warriors TV series, there.
OR
- Declare a moratorium on air & indirect fire support in built-up areas.
- Cease overt patrolling and convoy activity.
- Which means we can withdraw most of our troops.
- Which means the insurgents will come out of hiding
- Which means we can now terrorize them using guerrilla tactics.
- Patrol at night. Operate like the Vietcong. Contact community leaders clandestinely and offer them covert assistance.

Ten years down the line, we're back in charge. For good.
 
#19
PartTimePongo said:
...and a graphic illustration that the ideas pot is empty.

Iraqi PM urges cabinet reshuffle

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6141318.stm

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has called for a comprehensive cabinet reshuffle in light of the current situation in the country.
Analysis: Deckchairs. Titanic. Bells ringing?


PartTimePongo said:
And as the US searches for new approaches to the crisis in Iraq, the White House said talks with Iran or Syria were among options to be discussed when President George W Bush meets the Iraq Study Group panel of advisers on Monday.
Question: "New approaches" beneficial to the Iraqi people or the American people? :? :?


PartTimePongo said:
If you needed a better example there no one has the first idea...
Analysis: Continual banging of head against wall is probably not the best long-term remedy for a head-ache!


PartTimePongo said:
Anyway , back to Iraq , how to fix it.
Question: Why the predisposition to 'Iraq' as the endstate?
Analysis: Maybe, trying to fix the unfixable is part of the problem - not the solution.
 
#20
Not necessarily solutions, but issues and points that should be considered (as always, feel free to disregard, as I have no first-hand experience)

1. Coalition troops are being forced to take on the role of policework, renovation of schools and hospitals, humanitarian work, public safety and maintenance roles, and many more tasks. While they have performed admirably they cannot spearhead all of these efforts forever.

2. Iraqi interpreters hired by the Coalition take huge risks. We need to consider what their fate will be.

3. Pre-Saddam Iraq, while having tensions, did not have the level of sectarian hatred we see today. Saddam's reign filled up a nasty pandora's box which was opened by the 2003 invasion.

4. Moderate Iraqi leaders are being intimidated and/or assasinated. We need to find a way to protect such people.

5. Other Muslim countries need to be brought into efforts. Jordan and the UAE could prove useful.

6. Despite the corruption and innefficiency within many institutions, schools have been improving and enrollment is up.

7. The Iraqis now have the right to free speech, and they ARE using it. We need to listen.

8. One insurgent mole can disrupt the efforts of a Iraqi Police department with nineteen good cops.

9. Partition will not work. The ethnic and religious groups are interspersed throughout the country.
 

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