Dedicated Russian thread

MrDave

War Hero
All Avangard does is make WW3 more likely as it cuts the thinking and decision making time of the West. I thought Putin was smart but Avangard proves otherwise and Russia does not have the money to win an arms race. I also think it is High time the UK made provision to protect its citizens with some sort of defense system.
 

Slime

LE
All Avangard does is make WW3 more likely as it cuts the thinking and decision making time of the West. I thought Putin was smart but Avangard proves otherwise and Russia does not have the money to win an arms race. I also think it is High time the UK made provision to protect its citizens with some sort of defense system.
I suspect the thinking is to make NATO, and especially the USA spend large amounts of cash countering physical missile systems while Russia (with virtually no cash to spend) will bolster its offensive capability using cyber tech.

Imho this will massively backfire on Russia.
 
Interesting? Have you ever been in a sangar. on a mountain-top with a pair of binos in the Arctic, day after day, in sub-standard clothing and fed on sub-standard rations?

It's not as if they need physical look-outs using the mark one eyeball up there, is it?
Solzhenitsyn walt!
 
Is 2020 going to be the year that push comes to shove for Russia in Belarus?
The CBC report is more direct and beats about the bush less with regards to the current oil dispute.
Russia cuts off oil supplies to Belarus as economic talks collapse
The problem at the moment is that Russia won't renew crude oil contracts at subsidized rates until Belarus agrees to further economic integration. Russia and Belarus had two rounds of talks in December which didn't go anywhere. Russia is saying they won't renew the contracts until Belarus agrees on trade terms, and Belarus say they won't agree to the trade terms until the contracts are renewed.

Belarus have a large oil refining and petrochemical industry inherited from Soviet times, but it depends almost entirely on subsidized oil imports from Russia. The industry amounts to 20% of their GDP, so their economy will collapse without subsidized supplies from Russia. They export the refined products throughout eastern Europe so a continued dispute may cause shortages in the eastern EU. There's also at least one major oil pipeline from Russia to the EU which passes through Belarus.

They still have a Soviet style economy, and Lukashenko has been described as Europe's last communist dictator. Their economy is almost totally dependent upon economic aid from Russia, but Lukashenko has been very adept at preserving his own personal power which means keeping any sort of economic reform at bay.

Lukashenko has been a very slippery character so far, and I would not be surprised to see him successfully stall the Russians further by making commitments and then finding ways to avoid implementing them (as he has been doing for some time now). I suspect the real question will be what happens after Lukashenko is gone, which if he has his way won't be until after his death.
 
The CBC report is more direct and beats about the bush less with regards to the current oil dispute.
Russia cuts off oil supplies to Belarus as economic talks collapse
The problem at the moment is that Russia won't renew crude oil contracts at subsidized rates until Belarus agrees to further economic integration. Russia and Belarus had two rounds of talks in December which didn't go anywhere. Russia is saying they won't renew the contracts until Belarus agrees on trade terms, and Belarus say they won't agree to the trade terms until the contracts are renewed.

Belarus have a large oil refining and petrochemical industry inherited from Soviet times, but it depends almost entirely on subsidized oil imports from Russia. The industry amounts to 20% of their GDP, so their economy will collapse without subsidized supplies from Russia. They export the refined products throughout eastern Europe so a continued dispute may cause shortages in the eastern EU. There's also at least one major oil pipeline from Russia to the EU which passes through Belarus.

They still have a Soviet style economy, and Lukashenko has been described as Europe's last communist dictator. Their economy is almost totally dependent upon economic aid from Russia, but Lukashenko has been very adept at preserving his own personal power which means keeping any sort of economic reform at bay.

Lukashenko has been a very slippery character so far, and I would not be surprised to see him successfully stall the Russians further by making commitments and then finding ways to avoid implementing them (as he has been doing for some time now). I suspect the real question will be what happens after Lukashenko is gone, which if he has his way won't be until after his death.
Can Putin afford to wait that long, or will he have a hand in the timing?
 

Zhopa

War Hero
Is 2020 going to be the year that push comes to shove for Russia in Belarus?
Fair play to Lukashenko, I was asking "Is XXXX going to be the year?" for ages but gave up in about 2016 because it never is.
 
Fair play to Lukashenko, I was asking "Is XXXX going to be the year?" for ages but gave up in about 2016 because it never is.
But perhaps Putin is running out of time?
 
Can Putin afford to wait that long, or will he have a hand in the timing?
Lukashenko may be difficult to deal with, but at least for Russia he's a known quantity.

If there's any issue of timing involved, I suspect it would be that Russia would like to have long term arrangements for their future relationship in place while Lukashenko is still in power as it may be more difficult to get anything done there after he's gone.
 
Lukashenko may be difficult to deal with, but at least for Russia he's a known quantity.

If there's any issue of timing involved, I suspect it would be that Russia would like to have long term arrangements for their future relationship in place while Lukashenko is still in power as it may be more difficult to get anything done there after he's gone.
Not with "little green men" deployed and a pro-Russian fifth column springing up asking for Russian assistance. I would think they have such plans in place already.
 
Not with "little green men" deployed and a pro-Russian fifth column springing up asking for Russian assistance. I would think they have such plans in place already.
That would be a last resort however. It would be much preferable from Russia's perspective to simply make a deal with the rulers of Belarus.
 
That would be a last resort however. It would be much preferable from Russia's perspective to simply make a deal with the rulers of Belarus.
Totally agree.

However, there is a substantial (minority) opposition element in Belarus that yearns for a complete break with Muscovite overlordship as Ukraine achieved. So far they have been effectively sidelined by Lukashenka.
 
It would appear a St Peterborough clinic is treating those members of the Wagner Gp injured in fighting in Syria and Libya etc. Obviously, being a Merc is illegal in Russia and all combat injuries should be reported to the Police for investigation:
The previously unreported medical treatment for private military contractors wounded in combat overseas, including in Libya and Syria, shows fighters have received indirect support from the country’s elite even as the Kremlin denies they fight abroad on its behalf.

Under Russian law, all medical organisations are obliged to report combat injuries to the police for investigation and it’s illegal for a Russian citizen to participate in armed conflict as a mercenary.
It's also alleged the owners of the clinic, an insurance company, has amongst its officials relatives of Putin:
The clinic is owned by large insurance company AO Sogaz, which counts among its senior officials and owners relatives of Putin and others linked to the president, according to the SPARK database, which aggregates data from business registries.

The clinic’s general director, Vladislav Baranov, also has a business relationship with Putin’s elder daughter, Maria. Reuters has no evidence of the daughter’s involvement in the treatment of military contractors.
Obviously, Reuters were told to 'forget about it' and Peskov says he has 'no information on this at all':
Reached by phone, Baranov told Reuters: “Forget about our clinics, that’s my advice for you.” In response to written questions, he said: “I don’t want to communicate with you.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “We have no information on this at all.” The defence ministry, Sogaz and Putin’s daughter did not respond to requests for comment.
Worth reading the article in full imo. Has interviews with a couple of Wagner mercs injured fighting in Libya and Syria and also questions who is paying for the medical treatment. The patients don't know according to their interviews.

Personally, I don't have a problem with it ie providing medical treatment for your soldiers. It's more the failure to admit you're using Mercs and of course failing to report combat injuries ie more 'riding roughshod over Russian laws' by the 'crooks and thieves.'
 
All Avangard does is make WW3 more likely as it cuts the thinking and decision making time of the West. I thought Putin was smart but Avangard proves otherwise and Russia does not have the money to win an arms race. I also think it is High time the UK made provision to protect its citizens with some sort of defense system.
The UK government doesn't actually give a stuff about its citizens. Notice the recent statement given out that the military abroad has been put on high alert to protect our embassies? No mention of citizens there. I have given up reporting my presence to our embassies around the world when I arrive somewhere because we are usually treated with a degree of disdain. On one occasion upon arriving in Kabul as a senior advisor to the EC, I went to the embassy and was told to give them a copy of my passport. When I asked where I could get a photocopy made the bloke said: "somewhere in town". He was standing in front of a BFO photocopy machine at the time. @bob_the_bomb may remember the occasion since Bob then proceeded to rip the bloke a new arrsehole
 
Last edited:

Zhopa

War Hero
I have given up reporting my presence to our embassies around the world when I arrive somewhere
I had no idea this was something anybody still did. Based on my interactions with embassies on my own patch (not as hazardous as Kabul but with plenty of things that can go badly wrong if the local authorities take an interest in you) I imagine that most embassy staff would respond with a certain amount of bemusement if you tried.

(But I don't know because I haven't done it in decades.)
 
I had no idea this was something anybody still did. Based on my interactions with embassies on my own patch (not as hazardous as Kabul but with plenty of things that can go badly wrong if the local authorities take an interest in you) I imagine that most embassy staff would respond with a certain amount of bemusement if you tried.

(But I don't know because I haven't done it in decades.)
They mainly act with disinterest. so I haven't contacted them in about a decade now
 
In my experience, the French are better in looking out for their expat nationals in remote/risky locations.
 
must have rehearsed for this loads
 

Zhopa

War Hero
Rob Lee is one of the most effective and coherent trackers of interesting stuff going on over there. Definitely worth a follow.

(I think I'll tell his supervisor he's plainly not spending enough time on his PhD....)
 

Latest Threads

Top