#### edd1989

##### Old-Salt

We all know the game Deal or No Deal where you get 22 boxes with different amounts of cash in them and you try and make the most money. My friends and I were having a (rather heated) debate about whether at the end you should stick or switch?

I will explain...

Let us assume that the banker is irrelevant and you have got down to two boxes with either 1p or Â£250,000 within them. Considering you have one box in front of you...

...do you stick or switch?

I believe you should ALWAYS switch since it will drastically increase your chances; I will explain:

At the beginning you have a 1/22 chance of picking the box with the Â£250,000 in.

Therefore there is a 21/22 chance that the box with the Â£250,000 in is out in the boxes that you have not selected.

Having whittled down the boxes you find yourself with two left one with 1p and the other with Â£250,000.

Technically you should switch since the chances it's in the box NOT in front of you is 21/22.

I believe this is just a scaled up version of the Monty Hall Problem.

My friends are adamant it remains a 50/50 chance even though I'm adamant it's a matter of statistics.

Any thoughts/want to argue the matter

Edd