Damascus is "seriously examining" military action

#1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai...CFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2006/09/30/wmid30.xml

Israeli reports have revealed that the threat level had been raised after intelligence assessments that Damascus is "seriously examining" military action.
...
The Syrian leader said this week that he "wanted to make peace with Israel". But he warned that his "hopes for peace could change one day".

"And if this hope disappears, then war may really be the only solution," he added.
...
Ehud Olmert, has dismissed such calls. Mr Olmert, who is politically vulnerable after his much-criticised handling of this summer's war in Lebanon, is in no mood to make territorial concessions.

He fuelled tension this week by insisting that "the Golan Heights will remain in our hands forever".
...
"Assad wants to use threats as leverage to build on Israel's failures in Lebanon," said Mr Brom. "But any sane observer understands that Syrian military forces cannot match Israel, mostly due to our air superiority."
 

Nehustan

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#2
KGB_resident said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=Q0UZVKGG0WFRNQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2006/09/30/wmid30.xml

Israeli reports have revealed that the threat level had been raised after intelligence assessments that Damascus is "seriously examining" military action.
...
The Syrian leader said this week that he "wanted to make peace with Israel". But he warned that his "hopes for peace could change one day".

"And if this hope disappears, then war may really be the only solution," he added.
...
Ehud Olmert, has dismissed such calls. Mr Olmert, who is politically vulnerable after his much-criticised handling of this summer's war in Lebanon, is in no mood to make territorial concessions.

He fuelled tension this week by insisting that "the Golan Heights will remain in our hands forever".
...
"Assad wants to use threats as leverage to build on Israel's failures in Lebanon," said Mr Brom. "But any sane observer understands that Syrian military forces cannot match Israel, mostly due to our air superiority."
I'm thinking that Hizbollah are at this moment briefing Syrian MI about the weaknesses of the IDF/IAF, I have this sneaking suspicion that the Syrians might not be fighting by the line column and square :roll:
 
#3
Nehustan said:
I'm thinking that Hizbollah are at this moment briefing Syrian MI about the weaknesses of the IDF/IAF, I have this sneaking suspicion that the Syrians might not be fighting by the line column and square :roll:
Thank you Nehustan for your replay.

Here on this thread I would like to see professional estimates. What would be the best Syrian tactics? What additional weapons do they need?

I suspect that the Syrians have much more missiles than Hezbollah and a lot of anti-tank missiles. They have also anti-aircraft systems.

Supose that they would buy Russian made Iskander-E powerful mobile missile systems, very precise (20 meters) with range 280 km. So strikes deep inside Syrian territory would be very risky for Israel because of imminent retaliation.

Syrians could begin shelling of Golan Heights by something like Katyusha missiles. What would be Israeli options: offensive by tank columns? As we know now the result could be very unpredictable (more right quite predictable).
 
#4
There's a big difference between what hezbollah did and what Syria would have to do. By most accounts syria's military is in pretty bad shape. A lot of the gear they have is obsolete and they have a lot of trouble maintaining it. The IDF may not be the army it was but they'd still comprehesively beat syria.
 

Nehustan

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#5
Well not that I can claim to be a miltary strategical genius but If I was Assad I would probably create a dead zone in the relevant areas of Syria, with a rapid evacuation plan from the potential areas where the tank columns might try and force into the country, maybe a nod and a wink to the Lebanese not to spend too much money on rebuilding just at the moment. If it was a democracy I'd suggest compulsory purchase, but I guess relocation is probably a little easier in Syria especially if it is prepared in advance. I think I would probably then prepare what could be called an assualt course for say 15-30k from the potential points of penetration be they Lebanon, Jordan, or Iraq. Then its just a case of sucking those Israelis in, which due to their arrogance and pride probably wouldn't be so hard. Israel managed to beat the retreat in Lebanon, personally I don't think they can sustain an elongated guerrila war, without Big Bro, and I'm not sure that even Big Bro would be of much assistance judging by the latest reports out of Iraq, despite their significant miltary machine.

They have the might, but might is not always right, despite the axiom. From what I recall the last time they fought the Arabs proper it verged on conventional, I think the Arabs maybe remembering the military methodology of their past. I'm reading 'The Seven Pillars of Wisdom' at the minute, and that seems to have a certain resonance to this issue. Although Lawrence is speaking to a British audience his characterisation, which some might take as negative by its framing, of the Arabs certainly makes me think that a sustained guerilla war about a resurgent Arab Nation or part thereof, would not be high on my list of 'things to do'. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending which way you look at it) there are those just stupid enough to think these things are a walk in the park...

And then we have all the other factors in the region....
 
#6
Mushroom cloud over damascus might change their minds .The syrians have had their arses kicked time and time again by the isrealis cant see them being
to keen to get involed in another conventional battle.
Espically seeing as the neocons think the missing wmds went over the border to syria.Ideal excuse to let the cruise missles fly .
 
#7
Wouldn't Israel achieve air supremecy in short time and bomb Syria silly? After Lebanon I don't think they'd be keen to get involved in a ground war on someone elses turf.
 
#8
TomW said:
There's a big difference between what hezbollah did and what Syria would have to do. By most accounts syria's military is in pretty bad shape. A lot of the gear they have is obsolete and they have a lot of trouble maintaining it. The IDF may not be the army it was but they'd still comprehesively beat syria.
Allegedly namely Syrian instructors trained Hezbollah fighters. If pupils were so effective then what could be said about the teachers?

woody said:
Mushroom cloud over damascus...
... will never happen because it would be a suicide for Israel. Previously syrian never won. But never say never.

Direct American military involvement in the possible conflict? Unlikely.
 
#9
[quote="KGB_resident

I suspect that the Syrians have much more missiles than Hezbollah and a lot of anti-tank missiles. They have also anti-aircraft systems. -Which seem to have worked well last time in the Beka'a didnt they?[ :twisted:



Syrians could begin shelling of Golan Heights by something like Katyusha missiles. What would be Israeli options: offensive by tank columns? As we know now the result could be very unpredictable (more right quite predictable).[/quote] -Yes, after all the IDF went "Whole Hog" after Hezz, nothing was held back :roll:
 
#10
eveyuk said:
Wouldn't Israel achieve air supremecy in short time and bomb Syria silly? After Lebanon I don't think they'd be keen to get involved in a ground war on someone elses turf.
Well suppose for a minute that for some serious resons (because of anti-aircraft systems or/and a threat of retaliation) Israel would be voided a possibility to bomb Syria deep inside its territory. Then what from your point of view would be chances of the sides?

Apparently by constant bombing of Golan Heights Syria could force a total evacuation of the settlers. As Golan Heights are recognized by World community (including USA) as Syrian territory then a term aggression couldn't be used.
 

Nehustan

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#11
Even tho' Israel are at peace with Jordan, my money would be on a Belgium type maneuver shallowly through Jordanian territory to the West.
 
#12
Nehustan said:
If I was Assad I would probably create a dead zone in the relevant areas of Syria, with a rapid evacuation plan from the potential areas where the tank columns might try and force into the country...
If I were Assad then I would do the same thing. What are stong points of IDF? Tanks? But now we know that they are not invicible. Planes? But the Syrians know how to shoot them down.

The Syrians of course dream to return Golan Heights. They waited for the possibility many years and are able to wait further. No doubt that they are preparing... Who did think that Hezbollah was so well prepared for Israeli offensive? Who do we know about Syrian preparations? In fact - nothing.
 
#13
If Syria didnt fight Israel during the Lebanon fighting they wont start anything now. Its pure rhetoric. If they were stupid enough to attack Israel
they risk a two front war between Israel and the US which would probably result in a coup tossing out the Baathists.
 
#14
Nehustan said:
Even tho' Israel are at peace with Jordan, my money would be on a Belgium type maneuver shallowly through Jordanian territory to the West.
And also Lebanon in theory could be used to invade Syria from Bekaa valley. Though unlikely Israel would use Lebanese territory (for obvious reasons).

Variant with Jordan is potentially very dangerous too. First of all Egypt could break all agreements. Also Jordanian army is not symbolic force. It could retaliate in a very undesirable way and it could be helped by Saudi Arabia.

Violation of signed agreements would be highly unprofitable for Israel.

And (it is the most important point) Syrians could move their anti-tank gunners at any point very quickly.

PS. If Israel does invade Jordan then what do you think Hezbollah would do?
 

Nehustan

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#15
tomahawk6 said:
If Syria didnt fight Israel during the Lebanon fighting they wont start anything now.
Who said they'll start it. I believe that Damascus is known as the oldest city in the world, so plenty of time to aquire the skills of cloak and dagger. I think Sergey's posited scenario of bombing their own territory would be a clever maneuver, so long as there were growing tensions over some months.

tomahawk6 said:
Its pure rhetoric. If they were stupid enough to attack Israel
they risk a two front war between Israel and the US which would probably result in a coup tossing out the Baathists.
Yep silly me I forgot, the US would be helping. I take it all back the local Ba'ath are doomed...So let me get this straight the theatre is now Afganistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria...ok...something about looking before you leap...but hey its not like you listen to anybody anyway...
 

Nehustan

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#16
KGB_resident said:
Nehustan said:
Even tho' Israel are at peace with Jordan, my money would be on a Belgium type maneuver shallowly through Jordanian territory to the West.
And also Lebanon in theory could be used to invade Syria from Bekaa valley. Though unlikely Israel would use Lebanese territory (for obvious reasons).

Variant with Jordan is potentially very dangerous too. First of all Egypt could break all agreements. Also Jordanian army is not symbolic force. It could retaliate in a very undesirable way and it could be helped by Saudi Arabia.

Violation of signed agreements would be highly unprofitable for Israel.

And (it is the most important point) Syrians could move their anti-tank gunners at any point very quickly.

PS. If Israel does invade Jordan then what do you think Hezbollah would do?
I've actually seen the Jordanian tanks in tactical positions toward Israel, and though I haven't travelled extensively in the hills to the north (tho I have had a look at Golan) I'm thinking that this area is not defended as much as say 'the road to Amman'. I don't think they'd invade so much, maybe just execute a naughty flanking movement while the Jordanians were having afternoon tea. Although it would be very hard to sell to the populus it (the incursion) could be very fleeting, and dismissed as non threatening to Jordanian security bla bla bla.
 
#17
tomahawk6 said:
If Syria didnt fight Israel during the Lebanon fighting they wont start anything now.
It is possible that Lebanese war was simply a test: how anti-tank missiles work agains Merkavas.

tomahawk6 said:
If they were stupid enough to attack Israel
they risk a two front war between Israel and the US which would probably result in a coup tossing out the Baathists.
First of all, Hesbollah was 'so stupid' to attack Israel, so why Syria can't be 'stupid' too?

As I have said before, unlikely USA would help Israel by military force directly. USA would supply Israel with bombs and other weapons but a war with Syria because Syria tries to liberate own (and USA agrees with it) territory? A war with Syria would mean anti-tank missiles in hands of insurgents immediately with easily predictable consequences.

Suppose the best possible (for USA) variant. Syria is defeated and occupied. Syrian population is 20 mlns. Can you imagine how many new 'insurgents' would you face and without any chance to form a puppet government?

Military coup in Syria? Unlikely too.