I was largely discussing possession; as in Reefs/Island, the Crimea, Baltic states in the future. No amount of navy/air posturing is ever going to get the Chinese off those newly made air bases or any other unoccupied lump they choose to get too before us.
Agreed. The Chinese are playing the long game and have been very clever in taking a series of tiny steps - each time weathering the temporary diplomatic complaints - which have collectively added up to what everyone agrees is an illegal partial annexation of the SCS (quite aside from the colossal environmental damage caused).
Evicting them from those man-made islands would result in war but there is a far wider piece going on as Beijing looks to dominate to the inner and then outer island chains to push the US back across the Pacific. The primary 'boots on the ground' aspect to that would be if China seized any of the disputed Japanese islands such as the Senkakus.
In terms of the Baltic States, Russian artillery and mass would make short work of any NATO forces on the ground, just as they would have done in Berlin during the Cold War. I've always viewed the nations as a step too far for NATO. I just hope that they don't lead to a wider conflagration.
Regards,
MM