Cuban Bomber Crisis?

Discussion in 'Current Affairs, News and Analysis' started by TheBigUn, Mar 16, 2009.

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  1. People of a certain age (not myself) will remember the early 60's Cuban Missile Crisis

    According to the report in the link below it appears that Russia is once again attempting to project it's strategic capabilities further afield.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4996821/Russia-could-deploy-bombers-to-Cuba-and-Venezuela.html

    It is a considerable size sabre that they are rattling.................
     
  2. Non story that the Telegraph is hoping will catch some poor sole's attention and encourage some Cold War era pub gossip!

    There are hundreds of airfields around the world capable of supporting offensive military aircraft capable of dropping nuclear weapons.

    What is the difference between Russia obtaining the consent of the host state to temporarily deploy aircraft to a location for training, willy waving or for more serious activities to that of the US?
     
  3. The Russians consider that the US has crossed several red lines recently, starting with Kosovo, then inviting the Baltics and Caucasus into NATO, ABMs in Poland and so on. They no doubt see this as pushing back.

    Now, the US needs Russia's help to succeed in AFG as the MSR through Pakistan is being squeezed and the only alternatives are controlled by Moscow. That means that the US will keep back pedalling - they've just told Georgia that they're on their own for instance. The Russians will not risk jeopardising their success by pushing it too far; they will enjoy winding the US military up.
     
  4. Damn your eyes Sir! That was my intention..................... :wink:
     
  5. Bombers in cuba pose no real strategic value and US Defense folks know this. It's nothing more than a weak attempt at a wind up.

    I think the Russians will find that Obama will play their game for a little bit, but I suspect that if pushed in a corner will come out swinging far sooner than Bush would have.
     
  6. If America wishes to remain in AFG then they cannot afford to annoy Russia. Well, not in the absence of enough airlift to resupply troops in theatre that is. The MSR through Pakistan is dodgy enough as it is and I don't see things getting better any time soon. And that means keeping the Russians sweet so they allow NATO to truck supplies through their back yard. That's why the US will do nothing of any substance.

    It's got nothing to do with the individual in the White House, I don't see that McCain would be doing anything different - or Bush for that matter had this happened earlier. And then there's Iran, again the US needs the Russians on side.

    So all in all expect a lot of posturing and nothing of import to happen.
     
  7. Russia are in deep financial sh*t and at this stage,they don't want to upset Obama,so this is probably a bit of a non-story.

    Even if Ivan does fly his bombers off to the sun every few weeks,it can hardly be called a threat to the west.

    Chavez is offering an island to the Russians including an airfield,again if used,can hardly be called a threat.
     
  8. This isn't the Early 60's and the Castro currently in power in Cuba is not the fire-brand Fidel but his "younger" brother Raoul, who looks more like an elderly GP or perhaps a retired Accountant (he appears in a suit and not fatigues for that "Hero of the Revolution" look). I believe that Raoul is more of a realist and knows which way the wind is blowing. Pres. Obama has recently spoken about the relaxation of repatriating US Dollars to Cuba, safe in the knowledge that what the US Military could never achieve, the battalions of George Washingtons, Abe Lincolns, Andrew Jacksons and Ben Franklins will probably bring about. I do not think that Raoul Castro will risk alienating the US just as they seem to be on the verge of making significant concessions after 50 years of the Castro regime. Cuba as a country is - basically - on its chinstrap. It has to be seen to be believed: the damage from last season hurricanes still not rectified, the roads that are more pot holes than road and parts of the sea front of Havana looking for all the world like Beirut after the Israelis paid a visit: In short the infrastructure is done for. No exports and everything is paid for on the nail and through the nose. I cannot see Uncle Vlad giving the Cubans anything more than a pain in the **** for wanting to base Tu-95s et al in Cuba. If anything Venezuela would be the better bet: Chavez is a grade-A nut case and has just won one of those wonderful South American "Vote for el presidente to stay for life" referendums plus Venezuela, economic basket case that it is, does at least have some resources (oil - they are in OPEC, IIRC) and so could tough it out. Add to the fact that Venezuela is further away from the US than Cuba and militarily it looks a better bet for a base as it would take the Americans longer to strike it. Final thought - Venezuela is closer to the Panama canal... That has always struck me as a better "target" for Russian inspired mischief than "glassing" Miami, Ft. Lauderdale or Baton Rouge...