Cracks in Iraq Shia-Kurd coalition

#1
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E67D0ABC-0E43-4D79-A12E-E16B3761AC8F.htm

Sharp divisions have emerged between Iraq's ruling Kurdish and Shia Muslim factions after Iraq's Kurdish president accused the Shia prime minister of breaking coalition promises and overly dominating the government.


Kurdish officials warned on Saturday they would consider pulling out of the government if their demands are not met. That would cause the collapse of the government and put a new layer of political instability and fragmentation between Iraq's main communities
Why am I totally unsurprised by this move from the Kurds?
 
#2
Needless ta say I blames King George II and running dog Blur.
KG promised all and every thing to anyone who's help he needed.
Kurds own state eventually and the Turk into Europe as compensation.
The Europeans are having none of this sh1t and Turkey can go wistel.
The long term consequenses of KG's war are now slowly becuming apparent and given a few more deaths of US troop the sucessor ta KG will have to find a face saving formula to pull yankee troops out.
Penny pinching will have by then done for the Brit army which will be just a devision of Euro Force.
john
 
#3
As It's coming upto bonfire night I'd like everyone ot remember the following infomation:

"Light touch paper at arms length, and stand well back."

Well the touch paper is lit, but not at arms length nor are we standing well back...

Of course in my more tinfoil hat moments I have to wonder if the recent unplesantness in Basra was a set-up.
 
#4
PartTimePongo said:
Why am I totally unsurprised by this move from the Kurds?
Probably because you are reasonable man and (almost) free from influence of Bush/Blair 'agitprop' (probably you undersand a meaning of this word: agitation & propaganda).
 
#5
The vote on Turkey has certainly shafted a compensation deal over the Kurds. Turkish SF and SIS have been operating in the region for some time , and they're just waiting for the off. If the Kurds think we're going to sell them out , they'll react.

Turkey is not going to tolerate agitation from the Kurds. I am always stunned, when I speak with professional and educated Turks about Kurds, their reaction is invariably somewhere to the right of Hitler. To say the average Turk regards the average Kurd as little more than Gypsies, rogues and terrorists is not an overstatement in my opinion. Kurdish "Freedom Fighters" they point out, have already committed hostile acts in Turkey , so what about the "War on Terror"?

There is a reason for the sudden upswing in Insurgent activity, and I don't think it's solely confined to "Imperialist Dogs out" Nor do I believe, it is as simple as disrupting the next election. The Sunnis are shouting long and hard for a political solution that satisfies all parties as much as possible, and keeps Iraq as a single entity.

That doesn't make the Sunnis "good" but it does bring the spotlight onto how to stop the next war. The Shi'tes have Oil in the South , the Kurds have oil and Gold in the North, and the Sunnis have gravel and sand. They should remember they have rather a lot of water too, but by the time water becomes a serious issue, they will be in no position to resist hostilities from the Kurds or the Shia

Someone on the Sunni side, unlike we seem to be doing, is looking at the game 5-10 years hence. Rather than just write them off as sore losers , which the propaghanda machine is wont to do, let's look at ways and means of getting them back in this game, we are going to need them.

I have said this before, we need to get the Sunnis on board, and I mean fast, that includes Syria. Because my worst prophecy , is things will go to absolute ratsh*t in a maximum of 6 months from the elections, as the Iraq people realise what a corrupt shower of bastiges, have wheedled themselves into power.
 
#6
"as the Iraq people realise what a corrupt shower of bastiges, have wheedled themselves into power. "

Yes the scum of King George.
john
Newsflash
At the daily briefing in the White House, Rumsfeld gave Bush the news that three Brazilian soldiers were killed yesterday. George took the news very hard, and sat with his head in his hands for a few minutes. Finally, he looks up and says "So how many is a brazillion?"



sorry
 
#7
I would echo the sentiments that anyone surprised by this has not been paying attention. The Kurds have never committed to an Iraqi state, they've been playing the process to achieve what they can on their journey to an independent homeland. They've realised that they've got to the end of the road as far as that is concerned and it's time to start shaping public opinion for the next stage, breaking away from the rest of Iraq. Fortunately for the Kurds the US never seems to grasp the concept that people might lie to them.

Arguably the only reason the Sunnis are agitating for a united Iraq is that they realise that without the Kurds and Sunni they're a small bunch of people very vulnerable to takeover by their neighbours. Plus they'd still like to rule the place like they used to do.

And I don't think the Shia care much, they know they're big enough to get on with or without the others and Iran will always be sympathetic towards them.

I am however waiting for the US spin machine to try and make out that this latest development is in fact evidence that everything is going well. All together now, "stay the course", "turning the corner", "we have killed AQ's number two leader again" ...
 
#8
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/0e6aa2ba-339d-11da-bd49-00000e2511c8.html

Shia leaders agreed to implement Article 58 of the Transitional Administrative Law, Iraq's US-drafted provisional constitution, which calls for undoing population transfers by the ousted regime of Saddam Hussein.
There was a policy of 'Arabisation' in Kurdistan.

The Kurds want to add Kirkuk to their autonomous-rule zone and insist that Mr Hussein's Arab “settlers,” mostly Shia originally from the south, should leave.
 
#9
A Spectator letter from Field Marshal Lord Bramall, VCDS, CGS and CDS during the period encompassing the Falklands War, winner of the Military Cross during 1945. Someone who knows something about warfare, far more than Bliar, TCH and TCR could ever read in their lifetimes.

Prepare to leave Iraq

As one who was against the invasion of Iraq from the start, I feel I must now urge a complete reappraisal of what our forces can realistically be expected to achieve there. Whatever views people may have had on the legitimacy of the various reasons presented to them for going to war, the operation — from the moment the military objectives were achieved — has degenerated into a disaster. Last week there were reports from usually reliable sources in the press that the militias have infiltrated at least half the police and internal security forces in the Shia and Sunni regions, and barely 10 per cent of the Iraqi army is considered loyal to the authority of the central government.

This was predictable as the flare-up of civil protest following the ruthless dismantling of the Iraqi civil and security infrastructure made it plain that reconstruction of a country three quarters the size of France was going to be beyond the resources of the Coalition, even including those of the United States. Having helped to bring Iraq to its present chaotic state, the United Kingdom can hardly abandon that country if — and it is a considerable if — the Iraqis seriously consider that they need us to help stabilise their security and economy and, also, if there is credible evidence that we shall be able to do so and not, by our continued presence, make matters even worse.

The question is, ‘What next?’ The politics must come first, of course, and a radical change will demand some eating of humble pie; but what is now evolving is too serious and too pressing to permit delay in making that reappraisal simply to protect the amour-propre of the political leadership. It is not for me to pre-empt the outcome but there are options short of complete withdrawal or even setting a timetable for doing so. It is sound military practice to consolidate on good ground, and an early step towards restoration of an achievable and acceptable balance of power in the region could be to build on the moral support we still have from other Muslim nations.

So far as our relations with Washington are concerned, the greatest act of friendship that we could now provide would be to press our old ally to come to a joint solution for extracting ourselves from the hole we have dug together and which we are remorselessly digging deeper.

Bramall
House of Lords,
London SW1
 
#10
MrPVRd said:
A Spectator letter from Field Marshal Lord Bramall, VCDS, CGS and CDS during the period encompassing the Falklands War, winner of the Military Cross during 1945. Someone who knows something about warfare, far more than Bliar, TCH and TCR could ever read in their lifetimes.

Prepare to leave Iraq

As one who was against the invasion of Iraq from the start, I feel I must now urge a complete reappraisal of what our forces can realistically be expected to achieve there. Whatever views people may have had on the legitimacy of the various reasons presented to them for going to war, the operation — from the moment the military objectives were achieved — has degenerated into a disaster. Last week there were reports from usually reliable sources in the press that the militias have infiltrated at least half the police and internal security forces in the Shia and Sunni regions, and barely 10 per cent of the Iraqi army is considered loyal to the authority of the central government.

This was predictable as the flare-up of civil protest following the ruthless dismantling of the Iraqi civil and security infrastructure made it plain that reconstruction of a country three quarters the size of France was going to be beyond the resources of the Coalition, even including those of the United States. Having helped to bring Iraq to its present chaotic state, the United Kingdom can hardly abandon that country if — and it is a considerable if — the Iraqis seriously consider that they need us to help stabilise their security and economy and, also, if there is credible evidence that we shall be able to do so and not, by our continued presence, make matters even worse.

The question is, ‘What next?’ The politics must come first, of course, and a radical change will demand some eating of humble pie; but what is now evolving is too serious and too pressing to permit delay in making that reappraisal simply to protect the amour-propre of the political leadership. It is not for me to pre-empt the outcome but there are options short of complete withdrawal or even setting a timetable for doing so. It is sound military practice to consolidate on good ground, and an early step towards restoration of an achievable and acceptable balance of power in the region could be to build on the moral support we still have from other Muslim nations.

So far as our relations with Washington are concerned, the greatest act of friendship that we could now provide would be to press our old ally to come to a joint solution for extracting ourselves from the hole we have dug together and which we are remorselessly digging deeper.

Bramall
House of Lords,
London SW1
Watch the spin monkeys in action!!!!!
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#11
Field Marshal Bramall said;
So far as our relations with Washington are concerned, the greatest act of friendship that we could now provide would be to press our old ally to come to a joint solution for extracting ourselves from the hole we have dug together and which we are remorselessly digging deeper.
how can I put this....feckin' A !


Lee Shaver
 
#12
Goatman said:
Field Marshal Bramall said;
So far as our relations with Washington are concerned, the greatest act of friendship that we could now provide would be to press our old ally to come to a joint solution for extracting ourselves from the hole we have dug together and which we are remorselessly digging deeper.
how can I put this....feckin' A !


Lee Shaver
Absolutely right ... but I fear that the current administration will merely label us as "eurofag cowards" and go on their own merry way. The US has always had a tendency to veer between isolationism and involvement abroad but I think that their current tendency to combine the worst elements of both positions is quite unique. When I read US policy statements and the output of many US commentators I am always reminded of the old Millwall chant "no-one likes us, we don't care".
 
#13
Maybe what would open the eyes of a lot of people on the other side of the pond, is Britain agitating for either a greater share of the decision making process based on our experience in the region, or threatening to up sticks. I believe if Britain was to announce a withdrawl or a timetable to do so, the only cries of Eurofag pussies being made, would be desperately gurgling ones, as the lifejackets were handed out in Washington. The vast majority of the educated in the US would simply be thinking "If the Brits are pulling out, something is desperately wrong"

Would it damage our "special relationship" with the cousins? Yes, for 3 years, or until Bush was otherwise removed from the presidency, whichever was sooner

A British withdrawl would hasten the end of the Bush Presidency in my opinion. It's probably the single greatest reason why Blair is keeping us in there, in spite of the fact we are treated as very much a junior partner. There is also the question of oil to consider. Would a British withdrawl drive the price of oil to over $70.00 a barrel ,increasing prices at the pump, so reducing confidence and further reducing Bush's domestic confidence rating?

Then again, I am not the first individual to say we haven't enough input in the political or trading process. So did our former ambassador to the UN and Iraq. Though admittedley , he changed his tune from his first stance at the UN in 2002/3.
 
#15
Iraqi Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloum has survived an apparent assassination attempt in Baghdad after a roadside bomb hit his motorcade, killing three of his escorts, police and a ministry spokesman say.


"The minister was going to attend a ceremony in Baiji when a roadside bomb exploded," on Monday, the minister's spokesman Assem Jihad said.



He added that the minister's convoy was heading for Baiji, a refining town 180km north of the capital.



"The minister is fine and is now at the ministry in a meeting with his staff," he added.
Al-Jazeera

That's the 2nd attempt I think. Isn't his father some cleric?
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
#16
PartTimePongo said:
Would it damage our "special relationship" with the cousins? Yes, for 3 years, or until Bush was otherwise removed from the presidency, whichever was sooner
Haw - interesting quote from that horse's ass Noam Chomsky on the current course I'm studying:

the term Anglo-American is misleading. I mean its an elephant and a fly. England has lived with this illusion of a Special Relationship but when you look at the declassified transcripts even back in the Kennedy administration his closest advisers were talking about 'our lieutenant - the popular term is partner'
This was recorded at the tail-end of the Clinton administration - you suggesting we have a better relationship now than we did then ?

The Special Relationship is a fig-leaf, trotted out when it is convenient to either side....ask HMA in Washington how special he feels most of the time.

As FM Bramall says, you can tell a good friend from the fairweather variety when he or she is prepared to give you the advice you least want to hear .......

Le Chevre
 
#17
its all gone pete tong

whats the solution ?
 
#18
Pull back and nuke the site from orbit, it's the only way to be sure :D
 
#19
Or let Iran get it's way...
 
#20
And watch Syria put 2 Armoured divisions straight over the border , while Turkey emplanes it's Airborne element for a night drop on Mosul?
 

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