Coup in Myanmar

Just in case anyone thinks the situation in Burma/Myanmar is simple, and if you have the fortitude, the attached (well referenced) account from Wikipedia of the Panglong Conference in 1947 is interesting.

The Panglong Conference, held in February 1947, was a historic meeting that took place at Panglong in the Shan States in Burma between the Shan, Kachin and Chin ethnic minority leaders and Aung San, head of the interim Burmese government. Aung Zan Wai, Pe Khin, Bo Hmu Aung, Sir Maung Gyi, Dr. Sein Mya Maung and Myoma U Than Kywe were among the negotiators of the historical Panglong Conference negotiated with Bamar representative General Aung San and other ethnic leaders in 1947. All these leaders unanimously decided to join the Union of Burma. On the agenda was the united struggle for independence from Britain and the future of Burma after independence as a unified republic.

In the context of the Arakan (now Rakhine State) it is curious that the subsequent rebellion there was led by a Buddhist monk.

I can only say that, if having read it, you feel you understand the history of the founding of an independent Burma, perhaps you should go back and read it again. And concentrate!
 

4(T)

LE
Can you give a timeframe for the "invasion" of the area by the Rohingya? How does the "invasion" relate to the genocide against them today?


Without picking a side in a complex and decades-old strife:

I do recall that in the 70s/80s at least it was very much ethnic Burmese tribal people (of whichever sub group, etc) on the receiving end/defensive up in some of the Bengal/Burma border areas.

Back then Bangladesh government forces were doing a bit of ethic cleansing off camera (this was peak Bangladesh-as-victim era, so mostly a blind eye from the liberal aid donors). Whether this was in support of Rohingyas or general Bengali civvie land-grabbing, I don't know.

Discrete muslim tribal groups such as the Rohingyas were themselves being displaced by fellow muslims as population expansion within Bangladesh ate up the jungle areas and more inaccessible parts of the country.

There was also Assam separatists vs Bangladesh & Indian governments, Indian government vs Bangladesh government, Hindu vs muslim vs sikh vs Buddihist vs other sub-groups, Assam-based Bengali Hindu refugees and exiles agitating to free Sylhet.



The whole area is not unlike a tropical Caucasus, except with ethnic fault lines under intense added pressure from population growth and ensuing demographic displacement/ replacement.
 
Without picking a side in a complex and decades-old strife:

I do recall that in the 70s/80s at least it was very much ethnic Burmese tribal people (of whichever sub group, etc) on the receiving end/defensive up in some of the Bengal/Burma border areas.

Back then Bangladesh government forces were doing a bit of ethic cleansing off camera (this was peak Bangladesh-as-victim era, so mostly a blind eye from the liberal aid donors). Whether this was in support of Rohingyas or general Bengali civvie land-grabbing, I don't know.

Discrete muslim tribal groups such as the Rohingyas were themselves being displaced by fellow muslims as population expansion within Bangladesh ate up the jungle areas and more inaccessible parts of the country.

There was also Assam separatists vs Bangladesh & Indian governments, Indian government vs Bangladesh government, Hindu vs muslim vs sikh vs Buddihist vs other sub-groups, Assam-based Bengali Hindu refugees and exiles agitating to free Sylhet.



The whole area is not unlike a tropical Caucasus, except with ethnic fault lines under intense added pressure from population growth and ensuing demographic displacement/ replacement.
It has occurred to me that perhaps part of the problem is that the regime, post-independence, has never recognised the Rohingya as citizens, hence they never got ID cards. So they have been unable to differentiate between Rohingya who have been in the Arakan for centuries and those who may have tipped up more recently. The regime's answer was to ethnically cleanse the lot, after the usual rape/murder/enslavement, of course.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
All standard counter-insurgency kit, to be sure.

Yup....specially since the mobile SAM batteries also mount twin 30mm auto cannon, very effective against ground targets.

True dit: FCO objected to UK sales of Trip flares to a South Asian client on the grounds that they might be used offensively. Transferring obsolescent 76mm Canister ammunition to same client was also a no-no ,though on slightly more understandable grounds.

The Chinese armaments group NORINCO has been in business since 1982. Currently estimated to generate around $62 Billion Revenue a year......

For the generals in Yangon, dealing with the neighbouring superpower ( rather than distant Washington or even Mocba ) makes eminent sense.

But the Han don't endear themselves to the Burmese any more than they do to anyone else.

 
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NSP

LE
For the BBC, some news on Myanmar from more recently than the Fergal Keene interview:

Russia to supply Pantsir-S1 air defence systems to Myanmar


View attachment 545289

Pantsyr S1 surface-to-air missiles

Pantsyr-S1 carries 12 57E6 surface-to-air missiles on launchers. The missile has a bicalibre body in tandem configuration, separable booster and sustainer with separation mechanism. The sustainer contains the warhead and contact and proximity fuses. The fragmentation rod warhead weighs 16kg. The missile weighs 65kg at launch and has a maximum speed of 1,100m a second. The range is between 1km and 12km. [reporting name SA-22 Greyhound.]

Two 2A72 30mm guns are fitted with 750 rounds of a variety of ammunition – HE (high-explosive) fragmentation, fragmentation tracer and armour-piercing with tracer. Ammunition type can be selected by the crew depending on the nature of the target. Maximum rate of fire is 700 rounds a minute. Range is up to 4km.
It's good of them to tell anyone who might be looking to intervene militarily to avert/end a humanitarian crisis or restore/impose democracy just which countermeasures their air support needs to bring along.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
A Foggy Bottom perspective:

SOURCE : Myanmar’s Coup Was a Chronicle Foretold


Myanmar’s Coup Was a Chronicle Foretold​

The Military Brass Never Relinquished Control​

By Sebastian Strangio

February 2, 2021

On February 1, Myanmar’s newly elected parliament was slated to be sworn in for its coming five-year term. But in the predawn hours before the ceremony, the country’s military seized power in a coup d’état. The army swiftly detained State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, the nation’s top leader, and the president, Win Myint, along with an unknown number of lawmakers from the ruling National League for Democracy party and other critics of the military. The army also rounded up NLD officials and activists across the country and temporarily severed cellphone and Internet connections.

Into this communication vacuum the military broadcast an announcement that it had imposed a year-long state of emergency and installed former General Myint Swe, the vice president and former head of the Yangon military command, as acting president.

The army also announced that Myint Swe had transferred legislative, executive, and judicial power to the army’s commander in chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, for the duration of the emergency.


The article continues:

This week’s coup highlights the shortcomings of the reform drive—at first euphorically swift and then halting and partial—that Myanmar’s long-ruling generals had begun after the 2010 election. In a matter of months, starting in mid-2011, the government released hundreds of dissidents, lifted press censorship, allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to re-enter politics after years of house arrest, and opened peace talks with more than a dozen rebel groups.

This reform process reached a dizzying crescendo when Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD won a landslide election victory in November 15 and took over leadership of the government in early 2016.

But the narrative of democratization in Myanmar never quite matched the reality on the ground.

Whereas many Western observers saw a nation that had finally jumped onto the right side of history, Myanmar’s leaders still grappled with the consequences of more than a century of British colonial rule and six subsequent decades of civil war and military dictatorship.

Among these were the country’s long-standing racial and religious divides, which have found their most tragic expression in the military’s fierce assault on the country’s Rohingya Muslims, and an unresolved power struggle between the NLD and the military. The latter conflict dates back to mass demonstrations in 1988, which the military put down with brutal force.

Aung San Suu Kyi first emerged as a prominent political figure during those demonstrations, and her enduring popularity stems in large part from the fact that she has staunchly opposed military rule ever since.

---------------- ------------------------- endit -------------------------------- ------------------------------
 
It's good of them to tell anyone who might be looking to intervene militarily to avert/end a humanitarian crisis or restore/impose democracy just which countermeasures their air support needs to bring along.
I can't see Washington or any of the western democracies getting involved to intervene to restore/impose democracy or avert a humanitarian crisis. They will hum and har, impose a few sanctions which wont bother the generals as they will get everything they need from China, India and Thailand. Probably put down a few UN Security Resolutions which will be vetoed by China and Russia. That will be it. Back to normal jogging.
 
How about a return to colonial soldiering through the ‘road to Mandalay 2’ - pop up the Irrawaddy, install a pliant puppet in the seat and restore British pride somewhere East of Suez.

Park a destroyer off Kowloon and take back control of Honkers on the way back.


Tea and Medals. ‘Global Britain’ in action
 
How about a return to colonial soldiering through the ‘road to Mandalay 2’ - pop up the Irrawaddy, install a pliant puppet in the seat and restore British prode

Park off Kowloon and take back control of Honkers on the way back.

‘Global Britain’ in action
Fine by me. Let's do it. Have you run the plan past Boris though?
 

NSP

LE
I can't see Washington or any of the western democracies getting involved to intervene to restore/impose democracy or avert a humanitarian crisis. They will hum and har, impose a few sanctions which wont bother the generals as they will get everything they need from China, India and Thailand. Probably put down a few UN Security Resolutions which will be vetoed by China and Russia. That will be it. Back to normal jogging.
My point was more that it seems a bit twattish to tell the international media just what you're stockpiling. Sure, foreign powers - especially the superpowers - will find out eventually but why make it easy...?
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
How about a return to colonial soldiering through the ‘road to Mandalay 2’ - pop up the Irrawaddy, install a pliant puppet in the seat and restore British pride somewhere East of Suez.

Park a destroyer off Kowloon and take back control of Honkers on the way back.


Tea and Medals. ‘Global Britain’ in action
Erm......plse read ' A Hell of a licking' by James Lunt and ' Defeat into Victory ' by some bloke called Slim ...then pop back here and tell us all how you feel the venture will proceed.....call it a Staff Appraisal?
 
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Awol

LE
A nun facing down the police, in an image which will probably become as iconic as the Tiananmen Square one.

Brave lady.

CDA834DE-B9EC-4C5C-BA19-1D2FE080BE35.jpeg
 

Yokel

LE
Do Russia and China see Myanmar simply as a customer for arms and so on or as some sort of of proxy? What are the regimes international relations like? Do they provide basing for foreign forces? Do they deploy forces anywhere?

Why has Russia just supplied them with a submarine?
 
A nun facing down the police, in an image which will probably become as iconic as the Tiananmen Square one.

Brave lady.

View attachment 554808
A Christian nun to boot, not that I'm any expert on nuns. I do know what Burmese Buddhist nuns look like, though, and it's not the grey/black combo.

E2A: these are Buddhist nuns:

DSC_1412a.jpg


Juniors, possibly.
 
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mogreby

Old-Salt
Do Russia and China see Myanmar simply as a customer for arms and so on or as some sort of of proxy? What are the regimes international relations like? Do they provide basing for foreign forces? Do they deploy forces anywhere?

Why has Russia just supplied them with a submarine?
China has said that it doesn't matter whether it is the black cat or the white cat which wins, the mouse will be caught. They'll do business with a democratic or a military government and don't care which.

No foreign forces in Myanmar nor have they invaded anyone else.

Reports of police quitting their duties and going over to the civil disobedience side because they are unhappy with soldiers donning police uniforms and causing violence. Also military putting snipers on buildings around protest march routes. Not so much to shoot protesters but to shoot into houses along the route in the hope that the population will see the risks of allowing marches in their area.
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
Do Russia and China see Myanmar simply as a customer for arms and so on or as some sort of of proxy? What are the regimes international relations like? Do they provide basing for foreign forces? Do they deploy forces anywhere?

Why has Russia just supplied them with a submarine?

Burma/Myanmar is a country the size of FRANCE - with abundant natural resources including oil,gas and mineral wealth.

Might ask RUSI what interest China has in their next door neighbour....I would guess Russia sees them as just another client, with a nice warm water port, handy for an Indian Ocean support base.
 

Yokel

LE
Burma/Myanmar is a country the size of FRANCE - with abundant natural resources including oil,gas and mineral wealth.

Might ask RUSI what interest China has in their next door neighbour....I would guess Russia sees them as just another client, with a nice warm water port, handy for an Indian Ocean support base.

Everyone thinks Russians love ice cold Vodka, but what they really go crazy for a a large Port. Adjust your alcohol stocks accordingly.

Why does Myanmar need submarines?

From here: In the late 2000s, Myanmar short-listed four “regime friendly” countries, Russia, China, India and North Korea....

From the same article: Myanmar plans to build a submarine fleet to strengthen its naval power, with the first vessel to be used for training. The aim, the military spokesman said, is to deter foreign threats while serving as a counterweight to the forces of Bangladesh and Thailand—but not to China. In his interview with The Irrawaddy, Maj-Gen Zaw Min Tun claimed, “Our submarines are better than Bangladesh’s.”

Would that be the West they see as a threat?
 

Goatman

ADC
Book Reviewer
It's been quite a while since I read Jane's output, so I'm hopelessly out of date - back in the dark heady days of the Cold War it was Russia and their catspaw Cuba that was the major external support to the North Vietnamese.

I'm sure they (the Rodina) were delighted with the deep water harbour facilities so obligingly left behind at Camh Ranh Bay when los banditos Yanqis called it a day.

Today[edit]


Cam Ranh bay, the main base in Vietnam People's Navy fleet nowadays
After the Russian withdrawal, the United States negotiated with Vietnam to open Cam Ranh Bay to calls by foreign warships, as it previously had done with the ports of Haiphong in northern Vietnam, and Ho Chi Minh City in the south. In a move that security commentators say is aimed at countering China's build-up of naval power in the South China Sea, Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung announced on October 31, 2010 that the bay would reopen to foreign navies after a three-year project to upgrade the port's facilities.[20][21] Vietnam has hired Russian consultants to direct the construction of new ship-repair facilities, which are scheduled to be available to foreign warships.[2]

The United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta visited Cam Ranh Bay in June 2012, the first visit by an American official of cabinet rank to Vietnam since the Vietnam War.[22]

On 2 October 2016, US Navy ships USS John S. McCain and USS Frank Cable made the first port visit to Cam Ranh Bay since 1975.[23]




No doubt the sight of the Ivan Gren, basking alongside the spiffy new quayside in Rangoon would cause a slight frisson in many 3 star offices ?

Vessel Size

The Yangon Port is accessible to vessels of 190 m LOA, 9.3 m Draft, 20000 DWT and Thilawa Port is accessible up to vessels of 200 m LOA, 9.5 m Draft, 33000 DWT.


( not sure if the Ivan Gren /HMS Ocean/BNS Atlantico could actually get alongside there......)
 

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