He's either going to win or come a close second. It's spectacular if terrible to watch, like one of those videos of squeezing pus from a massive cyst.
The problem is that even long-term Labour party members and observers don't seem to fully understand how totally whackadoo their active party membership has become. My bet is that it has changed substantially over the past 5 years, and now looks like this:
- Middle-ground voters / supporters have deserted for Conservatives.
- Conservative leaning working class have deserted for UKIP (previously a most important counterweight)
- Scotland has deserted for SNP.
- Union linked membership has proportionally increased (and they are trying hard to get a gross increase too)
- An influx of younger (read: naive) members brought up to be generally socially liberal during the New Labour years, but more importantly, came to political awareness from 2007-2015 on a diet of left-right hyperbole about the crash and austerity. The ones joining Labour have clearly bought the left hyperbole.
- Proportionally more "true believers" as one New Statesman quote said today.
Labour party observers and pollsters have been mis-reading and mis-predicting results for a couple of years now. The clear conclusion is that their old assumptions / understanding no longer apply. At the same time, there is now a consistent trend of support from the rank-and-file for quite seriously left-wing ideas and individuals, be it on social media or elsewhere. None of these things in themselves are reliable indicators, some of them can be very misleading, but together, they give an increasingly firm steer about the direction of the membership.
The only real question remaining is whether there is a significant silent majority in the Labour membership who will vote differently when the time comes. Otherwise the Labour party and the UK left-wing is on the brink of total self-destruction precisely through gaining the success & crazy left candidate they always wanted. At least that should hammer the nail firmly in place on the crazy left, demonstrate with finality that the UK voters are not interested in moving further to the left, and might even open the door to a generation of sensible, moderate politicians. Not sure they will be sporting a Labour rose though. Hell, the Lib Dems might even make a comeback!
