China Ready to dominate the sea

#1
Rather interesting, well, interestingly written article picked up here - USN Cdr on the threat of China. I'm not wholly convinced, whichever way you look at it their carriers will just be reverse engineered Russian hand-me-downs, but still quantity has a quality etc etc

http://the-diplomat.com/2010/05/06/china-ready-to-dominate-seas/4/
 

Bouillabaisse

LE
Book Reviewer
#2
Naval skills are difficult to master and it takes time to develop. You can't "make" a carrier battle group commander or a carrier air group commander, you have to grow them with experience. I don't think the article (or others like it) suggest China will have the capability even in a few years, but look 20 years down the line and they will.

And they may be refitting a Russian carrier now, but that will be for training purposes only and to give their shipbuilders some ideas. Look for an indiginous carrier programme in 10 years or so after they've absorbed the lessons learnt.

Previous example - Russian carrier avaiation - large helicopter cruiser, followed by small carrier with Yak 40's, VSTOL aircraft, not very capable (I stand by to be corrected on make) followed ultimately by the Kutsnetsov class and MIG29 naval variants. It took 20 - 25 years to get to that point and they lost all that experience in the 90's. the Chinese are leapfrogging straight to fixed wing.

Personally I think the USN will shift most of their carrier force to the Pacific in the next few years and draw down on Atlantic priorities
 
#3
http://the-diplomat.com/2010/05/06/china-ready-to-dominate-seas/4/

Report by ....Commander James Kraska, JAGC, U.S. Navy, serves as the Howard S. Levie Chair of Operational Law at the U.S. Naval War College and Senior Fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views presented do not represent the official policy or position of the United States.

Is this not an overly negative view......to ramp up US Naval spending?

Can you take a Land based power and turn it into a Naval Power. History says not.
 
#4
Bouillabaisse said:
Previous example - Russian carrier avaiation - large helicopter cruiser, followed by small carrier with Yak 40's, VSTOL aircraft, not very capable (I stand by to be corrected on make)
Forger (IIRC) - Yak 38? Isn't the 40 a civil transport?
 
#5
Hardly 'ready'. They're at least 20-30 years off from having even world-class naval power. At the moment, at full stretch they can project a small flotilla into the Indian Ocean for the anti-piracy op.

As others have said, they're a land-power and their armed forces have been structured around border defence and internal security for the best part of three centuries. That doesn't change overnight. They've not had any substantial naval power since the Ming Dynasty and even that wasn't deep-water.

Piece of trivia, for those who are interested: for a brief period in the late 1800s, the Qing Empire had the most modern navy in the world with dreadnoughts bought from Britain and Germany. The Japs sank 'em in a single battle.
 
#6
smartascarrots said:
...
Piece of trivia, for those who are interested: for a brief period in the late 1800s, the Qing Empire had the most modern navy in the world with dreadnoughts bought from Britain and Germany. The Japs sank 'em in a single battle.
Are you sure?
 
#8
Let us be honest, there are enough of them , but.............

.............. if they don't bring their towels!

PS: With this failed and repellent government in charge, I should be surprised if the Isle of Wight did not 'dominate' our seas.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
#9
Get serious. Try to work out what the Chinese want this new navy for and which bits of sea they have their eye on. I do not think this is about steaming across the Pacific and giving Uncle Sam a black eye. I think this is about cultivating the means to have a completely free hand in, for instance, the Formosa Strait and the South China Sea. the latter being about wanting to exploit oil and gas there in peace (for China if not for others). So it is going to be about a well organised subarine threat in those waters to deter US 'interference'. Where all this leads eventually we shall see. Rapid expansion of a navy is not impossible given the right leadership and motivation, and a cadre of experienced people to run the training. And they are not the only ones lacking in experience of handling carrier task groups. Have look at what Gorshkov, ONE MAN with the right vision, achieved with the Soviet fleet, or what the US achieved in less than four years in the Pacific based somewhat on officers known as ninety-day wonders.
 
#10
StickyEnd said:
smartascarrots said:
...
Piece of trivia, for those who are interested: for a brief period in the late 1800s, the Qing Empire had the most modern navy in the world with dreadnoughts bought from Britain and Germany. The Japs sank 'em in a single battle.
Are you sure?
I think Smarts means the First Chinese Japanese War, I had to look it up but found details of it here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Sino-Japanese_War
the naval battles here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Yalu_River_(1894) and here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Weihaiwei

It might make a good wargame, as the Japanese did not have it entirely their own way. The Chinese were let down by corruption and lack of professionalism, but I doubt if that would apply to their navy now.

I am no expert of course, God forbid that I should be, but I shall not be surprised if their ships start paying regular friendship visits here in maybe 10 or 15 years time.
 
#11
smartascarrots said:
Hardly 'ready'. They're at least 20-30 years off from having even world-class naval power. At the moment, at full stretch they can project a small flotilla into the Indian Ocean for the anti-piracy op.

As others have said, they're a land-power and their armed forces have been structured around border defence and internal security for the best part of three centuries. That doesn't change overnight. They've not had any substantial naval power since the Ming Dynasty and even that wasn't deep-water.

Piece of trivia, for those who are interested: for a brief period in the late 1800s, the Qing Empire had the most modern navy in the world with dreadnoughts bought from Britain and Germany. The Japs sank 'em in a single battle.
Dreadnought's didn't appear until 1906.
Sorry to be picky but it is a significant distinction and of great importance to world history.
 
#12
StickyEnd said:
smartascarrots said:
...
Piece of trivia, for those who are interested: for a brief period in the late 1800s, the Qing Empire had the most modern navy in the world with dreadnoughts bought from Britain and Germany. The Japs sank 'em in a single battle.
Are you sure?
Look up 'the Beiyang Fleet'. Shipwrights in Germany particularly used the Chinese order as a test-bed for new principles, which was one of the reasons they started producing such good kit in the late Victorian/early Edwardian period.

There was a whole package of last-gasp reforms on the part of the Manchus designed to try to save the empire and resurrecting the navy was one of them, much good it did them. 'All the gear and no idea' springs to mind since they had the kit but not the know-how to use it.

Flagship Ting Yuen



Edited to add: Jagman's quite correct. I believe the official description of the Ting Yuen design was 'turret ship' and not 'dreadnaught'. My mistake.
 
#13
..the real test of global naval power is when a nation can project real power on the other side of the globe from its own waters....very few can do it and very few have managed it in the past........it will 20/30 years at least before China can challenge, say, in the Atlantic......
 
#16
Well, a few weeks back they sent a smallish task force of 8 Destroyers/frigates and 2 SSK's and an oiler, between Okinawa and Miyoko islands in Japan. Freaked the Japanese out because they had never had that happen in those numbers before. The TF went onto the Mallacca straights for an exercise
 
#17
Toptotty said:
..the real test of global naval power is when a nation can project real power on the other side of the globe from its own waters....very few can do it and very few have managed it in the past........it will 20/30 years at least before China can challenge, say, in the Atlantic......
Good job everybody agree's the UK needs a strong navy (and the big expensive carriers) ins't it......
 
#18
petergriffen said:
Well, a few weeks back they sent a smallish task force of 8 Destroyers/frigates and 2 SSK's and an oiler, between Okinawa and Miyoko islands in Japan. Freaked the Japanese out because they had never had that happen in those numbers before. The TF went onto the Mallacca straights for an exercise
Bet the Japanese thought "It's like World War Two out there".
 
#19
They have the distinct advantage of joined-up planning that goes all the way from the highest head-shed right down to the man. And they don't do short-term.

Strangely sub-friendly looking piers in Malta - Dry-dock facility in Pakistan - Super-gauge canal through the thinnest part of the Thai ithsmus which will bypass the Malacca straits and cut East to West sea time by months.

All to do with tlade of coz!

You have crock, if you prease.

Me have time, if you don't prease. :)
 

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