China plans to send troops into North Korea

#1
Some good news...

China 'plans to send troops into North Korea

According to a new report, Beijing would send in the People’s Liberation Army if it felt threatened by a rapid breakdown in Kim Jong-il’s rule over the country.

China would seek to win the backing of the United Nations first, but would be prepared to act unilaterally if necessary.

“If the international community did not react in a timely manner as the internal order in North Korea deteriorated rapidly, China would seek to take the initiative in restoring stability,” said the report by two Washington think-tanks.

Based on extensive interviews conducted in China, including with PLA academics, the report’s findings back up previous indications of China’s major change in attitude to Kim Jong-il after the North Korean nuclear test of October 2006, and also demonstrate its willingness to assert itself in international affairs
In full

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/01/08/wchina108.xml
 
#4
And why not? North Korea has always been inside the China's sphere of influence. The only problem is that they will probably be tempted to finish the job and go all the way down the peninsula.
 
#6
TopBadger said:
According to a report by two washington think tanks... big deal. I'll believe it if it happens.

TB
Not as unlikely as you'd imagine, the Chinese have always seen NK as a buffer against the US and a growing SK, what they would not want to see is a NK swallowed up by SK, with it's nukes (yes the economic fallout would be great, but I'm sure the US would have some petty cash laying around), it's handy having the slightly crazy boy's in the neighbourhood as a distraction. they always thought they had NK on a leash to be let loose when needed, anyway, they'd move in, and install a friendly puppet government and prop it up.
 
#7
This could be a good thing.

If North Korea starts to implode,the outcome could be very nasty.Dear Leader or some other lunatic firing rockets(with or without nukes) at Japan,or mounting an invasion of the south may kick off WW3.

South Korea trades with China,and is one of their major trading partners.

China doesn't want rouge states ruining it's fast expanding trade with South Korea,Japan or other countries.

A ever increasing number of asylum seekers from North Korea are entering China these days.This is how the end of East Germany started,with ever increasing numbers of it's citizens escaping to other nations.

The final collapse of North Korea may not be far off.
 

Biped

LE
Book Reviewer
#8
If China goes hoofing into NK, then nobody will be particularly concerned I think, least of all in the West. China knows that it would be a massive own-goal globally if it had any ideas about visiting SK - they are well and truly part of the global marketplace these days, and if the invade SK, they'll be up against the West, and the first thing that will happen is the tremendous inflow of capital from the West will stop dead, and so will China's economic progress. It's China's golden boys who are running the financial upsurge in China - and they won't let the gravy train hit the buffers easily.

The West would not seek to invade NK (after the last little episode), and in NK tried to invade the South, the the West would halt them. It would be clear to China that the West doesn't want to go further North than necessary, again, because of the global marketplace - it suits neither China nor the West to stop the gravy train.
 
#9
And? It would probably lead to a massive jump in the standard of living, as in the people wouldn't be starving to death.

Medium to long term with the cost of living and wages being so ridiculously low once they've got some basic infrastructure they'd immediately become the new Taiwan or China to outsource your cheap production to. Reconstruction is going to be an absolute nightmare though - if you think how badly absorbing Eastern Germany****ed up the Federal Republics economy and then compare even the GDR's less than stellar industrial record againt the North Korean's complete lack of, they're going to need every penny they can grab. At least it'd give the World Bank and IMF something to do, apparently with the massively rising prices for certain raw materials they're having trouble finding takers for all of their loans.

In a perfect world I'd like to see the South Koreans invading the North, annexing/reunifying the place and taking all their stuff, keeping the nukes and then pointing them at Beijing just for the sheer comedy value. :)
 
#10
Sounds like a contingency plan rather than a serious proposition.

Glad to hear someone will step into the breach, though. SK have been playing nice with cross-border food aid, but they couldn't cope with stabilising the whole country if The ****** In The Platform Shoes folded.

Besides, I don't think PRC would want to see Korea united under the ROK banner. Too much face lost, doncher know. I just hope nobody this side of the divide gets big ideas.
 
#11
I don't think it will collapse any time soon, many have predicted that many times and it never happened, why ? because the North Koreans have been taught total obedience and respect for the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, most of the respect for Kim Il Sung is genuine as he is considered the father of the nation and defeated japan and kicked them out of Korea, which we know is not entirely true, also the Juche Philosphy is an uniquely Korean concept mixing Confuciansim, Communist and Nationalist in one Ideal of self reliance, also they have got through the worst Famine in living memory, they have opened a little introducing controlled Capitlist type economy, they are slowly aware of the rest of the world including South Korea through cultural exchanges.

In my Opinion, at least the Country is stable only due to the Juche Ideal and Godlike worship of the Leader, when it may well have collapsed long time ago, It is far better that it remains so than the worst case of scenario of total and utter collapse and anarchy with the inevitable blood letting with many settling old scores.

Unification will not be taking place for a very long time partly due to what happened in East Germany also North Korea will only be a junior partner in such unification, better that the living standard of North Korea rise to match the South to make for an unification of equals.

The experiences of North Korean refugees have not found South Korea as welcome as they hoped, many are looked down as second class citizens, spoken to like an foreigner, particularly with a Northern accent, there have been clashes in schools where North Korean have been teased and bullied by South Koreans to the point where they all got together and beaten up the Southern Bullies quite badly in 2003, consequently many schools now refuses to accept North Korean pupils, so they had to go to special schools, to complete their education, while many would not go back to DPRK, many did find the South disapointing, this must have filtered back to DPRK to their relatives there, the South Korean have themselves to blame for not accepting the North Refugee as much as they should have, even where the Southern Government have been very generous in helping the Nothern Refugees to adapt to life in the South through classes, Money, Housing, Employment skills unfortunately Southern society have not been as forthcoming.

This does not bear much hope for future unification, the longer the separation remains, the least likely it is going to happen as they diverge more in Language, Culture, and the old generation with Memories of Old Korea die off, the Young will not feel the same attachment to One Korea.
 
#12
Brick said:
Medium to long term with the cost of living and wages being so ridiculously low once they've got some basic infrastructure they'd immediately become the new Taiwan or China to outsource your cheap production to.
In a perfect world I'd like to see the South Koreans invading the North, annexing/reunifying the place and taking all their stuff, keeping the nukes and then pointing them at Beijing just for the sheer comedy value. :)
They already do, Hyundai is using the New Rail link to ship parts to Kaesong Special Economic Area, where it is assembled by local workers for less than the South wages but four time local salary, the finished product is shipped back South.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#13
When the kitchen sinks decided to discus tactics with Vietnam in the late 80s I believe the Peoples Army received a slapping but thats a common thread from the Vietnamese.
If they go into NK again at least the maps north of the 38th Parallel wont have changed!
 

RP578

LE
Book Reviewer
#14
ugly said:
When the kitchen sinks decided to discus tactics with Vietnam in the late 80s I believe the Peoples Army received a slapping but thats a common thread from the Vietnamese.
If they go into NK again at least the maps north of the 38th Parallel wont have changed!
The Sino-Vietnamese War was in the end of 1978 to 1979 and yes, the they took a drumming. I think (not sure on figures) that they suffered as many deaths in that war as the Americans did in their decade plus conflict.

Again memory is shaky, but I think that the Chinese said that they had invaded to teach Hanoi a lesson for overthrowing the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia (Pol Pot having been an ally of China).
 
#15
semper said:
Brick said:
Medium to long term with the cost of living and wages being so ridiculously low once they've got some basic infrastructure they'd immediately become the new Taiwan or China to outsource your cheap production to.
In a perfect world I'd like to see the South Koreans invading the North, annexing/reunifying the place and taking all their stuff, keeping the nukes and then pointing them at Beijing just for the sheer comedy value. :)
They already do, Hyundai is using the New Rail link to ship parts to Kaesong Special Economic Area, where it is assembled by local workers for less than the South wages but four time local salary, the finished product is shipped back South.
Wot? You mean that they could be hiding nukes inside all these cars just like in the Tom Clancy novel? I'm away to change mine for a Citroen!
 
#16
RP578 said:
The Sino-Vietnamese War was in the end of 1978 to 1979 and yes, the they took a drumming. I think (not sure on figures) that they suffered as many deaths in that war as the Americans did in their decade plus conflict.

Again memory is shaky, but I think that the Chinese said that they had invaded to teach Hanoi a lesson for overthrowing the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia (Pol Pot having been an ally of China).
The First Sino-Vietnamese War was the first real disaster for the PLA since its founding. When you remember how effective it was in the Civil and Korean Wars, it was a real blow to their pride. The main reasons why were that they decided to throw a load of light-role infantry divisions against a hardened enemy in prepared fixed defensive positions on home ground and not give them much in the way of artillery or air support. Casualty rates were pretty much as you'd expect and the war over in about 4 weeks.

They had continual border skirmishes which resulted in a second go round in the mid to late 80s (1984-89 IIRC) which was a far better result for the PRC. The introduction of professional officers and NCOs in the wake of the first fiasco stiffened their army, as did a core of professional soldiery to leaven the volunteer/conscript base. Better personal equipment (especially assault rifles and LMGs) and more CS assets allowed them to inflict a heavy defeat on Vietnamese forces inside Vietnam.

A decent, although unauthenticated, account of the Battle for Mount Laoshan is here, for anyone interested.

Edited to add: I remembered vaguely that the war was never technically ended, but couldn't find a source. I've discovered it in Peace Time:
Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace
by Virginia Page Fortna, published by Princeton Press. Memory like a sieve, me.
 

RP578

LE
Book Reviewer
#17
smartascarrots,

I was completely unaware that there had been a second conflict! I read through that link and it starts off by saying that the Vietnamese used Mt Laoshan as a base for incrsions into China. Is that just a load of propaganda? Why would VN want to raid China?

I'd be interested in reading more about this conflict if you know of any other good links/books. Cheers!

Edited to add: I just read the China Defense site's take on the 1979 war and it reads like an utterly one-sided whitewash of an account and so don't know how much credibility I'd give their Mt Laoshan article either.
 
#18
RP578 said:
smartascarrots,

I was completely unaware that there had been a second conflict! I read through that link and it starts off by saying that the Vietnamese used Mt Laoshan as a base for incrsions into China. Is that just a load of propaganda? Why would VN want to raid China?

I'd be interested in reading more about this conflict if you know of any other good links/books. Cheers!

Edited to add: I just read the China Defense site's take on the 1979 war and it reads like an utterly one-sided whitewash of an account and so don't know how much credibility I'd give their Mt Laoshan article either.
I hadn't heard of it until I met one of the wife's uncles who served in an Assault Engineer Regiment during it. It was pretty interesting, to say the least!

The big problem is that both participants are Communist dictatorships, so getting any reliable official info on it is pretty hard, let alone detemining the extent of the partiality in it.

There's a interesting perspective on the entire period here
although it skips the second war, dismissing it as a continuation of the skirmish period. It's also written by their Vietnamese analyst and should be viewed from that perspective.

China Defence is a wing of the PLA publishing house and is as unbiased as you would expect. :roll: But that passage I quoted seems to have a ring of authenticity about it. Certainly, from what I can deduce it follows the general thrust of the battle as agreed by other sources I can find. Of course, it was written by a gunner, so what can you expect?

As to the Vietnamese raids, that seems to be genuine. The border is based more on terrain than ethnic divide; particulary in Yunnan, the locals have more in common with the ethnic minorities in Northern Vietnam than either do with Chinese or Vietnamese proper. Vietnam lays claims to land on the Chinese side of the border on the grounds that the Vietnamese Empire once conquered part of it (from the Ming Dynasty if memory serves) before the Manchu kicked them back out. Add in a considerable amount of post-'79 willy-waving and a dose of world realpolitik and it's not too difficult to grasp why they'd go to war.

Anyway, there's a propaganda video cut together from combat footage here, together with some decent commentary in the thread. It's on an official Chinese forum, but a lot of the posters are serving military from all round the world. There's the inevitable censorship, but critical posts seem to be left alone provided they're not outright abusive. Personally, I thought the PLA troops conducted themselves well under fire and looked pretty well equipped for the time.

If you find anything yuorself, would you mind posting it or PM'ing me? I'd be interested as well.
 

RP578

LE
Book Reviewer
#19
smartascarrots,

Here is another good overview: Brothers in Socialist Solidarirty which dates the end of hostilities to 1989.
Although not in comparable scope to the 1979 war, the casualties from the conflict beginning in 1984 eventually reached several thousands. The PLA also used this conflict as an opportunity to provide actual combat training for their officers and personnel as units were constantly rotated in and out of action on the Vietnamese front to gain experience. This conflict would not truly end until 1989 when a border settlement and peace treaty was signed to officially end the sporadic fighting leaving Laoshan and hills formerly on the side of the Vietnamese border now under Chinese control.
Most accounts seem to treat the 1980's conflict as a series of border skirmishes and not copmparable in scale or significance to the 1979 war.
 

ugly

LE
Moderator
#20
I thought it was all about disputed provinces, another Kashmir in the making only possibly a lot older!
 

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