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China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

The Chinese are cautious, the aggresive North Korean activity is simply China wishing to test America's resolve, it's simply another chess move....and we are still playing ludo!

I don't think so. I don't think the current leadership in North Korea is playing anyone's script other than it's own. The aid China gives to NK doesn't appear to be buying a lot of anything.....
 
this is the cause of my great doubt over the UK's ability to remain neutral in any major hostilities in the Far East.

I very much doubt the UK would be able to remain on the fence if Chinese posture towards Australia ever changed to anything even remotely threatening. Seeing as Oz have rather openly sided with the US by allowing base rights in the region, they're seemingly intent on forsaking their won neutrality on the containment of China.

The UK's vast cultural link to Australia in addition to the couple of outdated defence agreements in the region (Brunei & Singapore) make us far more susceptible to being dragged into affairs than we dare admit.

I get the feeling the Aussies are rather miffed with the Chinese for various reasons, mostly around mining stuff.....
 
I don't think so. I don't think the current leadership in North Korea is playing anyone's script other than it's own. The aid China gives to NK doesn't appear to be buying a lot of anything.....

North Korea has a huge gaping back door, which Peking can kick in whenever they like. Kim wrong-un is fully aware of that and wouldn't act without approval from the empire of the middle.
 

ARRSENIPPON

Old-Salt
"the only habitual use of the islands that counts is the one we decide does"
I don't know what specific episode you're referring to here, but isn't this pretty much how everyone and all institutions interpret events.

Somebody else was using them before the Meiji claim. That somebody else was swept into history at the point of a bayonet as a direct result of the activities the Japanese government was supposed to have renounced - twice.
As far as I know Ryukyuan, Japanese and Chinese fishermen used them for occasional and temporary shelter and food processing for the most part. Those fishermen continued to use them after the Meiji government claimed the islands.

No one has ever lived permanently on the islands, and no one has ever been kicked off by force.

Although that could be about to change.

JGSDF soldiers embark onto USMC Ospreys during an exercise in SoCal in February.

Or maybe I'm just having an especially mong day and am not grasping something very simple here.
 
Abe must be rubbing his hands with glee at all these Chinese provocations as he tries to move Japan to a more robust military posture and leave the 'Self Defence' force days behind.

Pacifism may be the current fashion in Japan, but its one hell of a thin veneer. If the Japanese feel their 'homeland' is threatened, they have, and will, react with a breathtaking ferocity. And the Japanese 'Self Defence' Force has a fearsome offensive capability.
 
It does not take much effort to compete with the US automotive industry now, but when they start designing and selling advanced nano-technology or inventing super efficient batteries for electric transport needs the US will shit its pants hard.

I for one won't be holding my breath in the short term. It will happen eventually, of course. The (modern) day Chinese companies are very good at "acquiring" technology and reverse engineering it but don't seem to do a lot of inventing or creating themselves. I could be wrong, of course.
 
Abe must be rubbing his hands with glee at all these Chinese provocations as he tries to move Japan to a more robust military posture and leave the 'Self Defence' force days behind.

Pacifism may be the current fashion in Japan, but its one hell of a thin veneer. If the Japanese feel their 'homeland' is threatened, they have, and will, react with a breathtaking ferocity. And the Japanese 'Self Defence' Force has a fearsome offensive capability.

Not nearly fearsome enough should they sufficiently annoy the Middle Kingdom.
It's looking increasingly like there'll be a little bit of argey-bargey, settling down to a new Cold war in the medium to long term. I'd have a somewhat squeaky arse if I lived in Taiwan or any number of little rocks in the Pacific.

Little to concern us though, other than as any instability affects exports from the nations involved.
 

ARRSENIPPON

Old-Salt
Abe must be rubbing his hands with glee at all these Chinese provocations as he tries to move the Japan to a more robust military posture and leave the 'Self Defence' force days behind.
He surely is, and this is where we're heading. My guess is that we'll see military spending break through the 1% of GDP within a year or two (FWIW, there is no law about this, it's a "self-imposed" restriction). Is this really what China wants? Hard to believe, since it's so obviously what was going to happen given recent events. Abe mkII's focus has caught us out, so maybe it has surprised PRC, too, but they should have known better.

Pacifism may be the current fashion in Japan, but its one hell of a thin veneer. If the Japanese feel their 'homeland' is threatened, they have, and will, react with a breathtaking ferocity. And the Japanese 'Self Defence' Force has a fearsome offensive capability.
This is all very true. Asking Japanese friends about this, and while most say that they don't want a war with China (or anyone), they'll usually add something along the lines of "of course we'll fight hard if we have to, we're Japanese".
The best thing would be for both sides to walk away, very carefully and slowly, with pride "intact".
 
I for one won't be holding my breath in the short term. It will happen eventually, of course. The (modern) day Chinese companies are very good at "acquiring" technology and reverse engineering it but don't seem to do a lot of inventing or creating themselves. I could be wrong, of course.

It depends on the sector, the product and the company. I'd certainly like to see all 'free-market/deregulation' fanatics sent to run a business in China for a bit, because apart from industries identified as of strategic importance the business environment is like the Wild West and that's where most of the problems lie. Ferocious competition, massive market crowding and a weak regulatory environment mean it simply hasn't been worth investing in R&D even for those who could afford it (and remember the majority of private firms are SMEs).

As the regulatory framework stabilises, companies will have more faith that their research isn't simply an investment in their competitors' futures and that's when we'll see a difference. Thankfully, they're mostly still interested in developing for the home market but even the overspill will be worth watching.
 
He surely is, and this is where we're heading. My guess is that we'll see military spending break through the 1% of GDP within a year or two (FWIW, there is no law about this, it's a "self-imposed" restriction). Is this really what China wants? Hard to believe, since it's so obviously what was going to happen given recent events. Abe mkII's focus has caught us out, so maybe it has surprised PRC, too, but they should have known better.

This is all very true. Asking Japanese friends about this, and while most say that they don't want a war with China (or anyone), they'll usually add something along the lines of "of course we'll fight hard if we have to, we're Japanese".
The best thing would be for both sides to walk away, very carefully and slowly, with pride "intact".

Even a small rise in Defence spending will dramatically shift the balance of power in Japans favour.

One if the reasons the Yanks like working with Japan on Defence is Japans peerless ability to take the most cutting edge technology from the lab to production in a very short period without incurring eye watering costs or any delays.

The Land of the Rising Sony can just as easily develop and churn out advanced cruise missiles as hypercars, quickly and affordably.
 
China is a particularly nasty and vicious Fascist state, but they're patient. With their near-slave labour force and increasing control of global manufacturing and transport, they will in the end dominate without the need for major war.
Give us the dictionary meaning of Facist please.
 
I for one won't be holding my breath in the short term. It will happen eventually, of course. The (modern) day Chinese companies are very good at "acquiring" technology and reverse engineering it but don't seem to do a lot of inventing or creating themselves. I could be wrong, of course.

Total codswallop. Many US companies are reshoring due to the increased costs of transportation. Read the Economist
Reshoring manufacturing: Coming home | The Economist

Given the growth of 3D printing IF the West can take the lead in additive manufacturing we can turn a circle
.

IF not, learn Chinese.
 
One if the reasons the Yanks like working with Japan on Defence is Japans peerless ability to take the most cutting edge technology from the lab to production in a very short period without incurring eye watering costs or any delays.
.

You're kidding, right?

There's a huge difference between churning out cassette players or cars, and churning out hideously complex systems like modern combat aircraft. Every F-15J the Japanese made, cost them twice as much as the US-built equivalent. They spent years building their own pimped F-16 (the F-2, link below), and ended up with something far heavier, slower, and less capable - for exactly the eye-watering costs you mention; four times the cost of an F-16. Their satellite launching capability isn't particularly impressive (compare SpaceX and Falcon with JAXA and the H-II), and their nuclear industry is a true tale of woe...

Basically, when it comes to the big complicated stuff, they're no better than us, and occasionally worse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_F-2
 
I don't know what specific episode you're referring to here, but isn't this pretty much how everyone and all institutions interpret events.

I posted elsewhere that Okinawa is undisputably and undisputedly part of Japan but it’s how it came to be so and how these islands came to be part of that prefecture that I was referring to. Essentially, it breaks down into:

1. The Ryukyus were independent kingdoms, enjoying the same tributory status to Kyoto as to Beijing.

2. Then they were annexed militarily during the Meiji expansion.

3. The Diaoyu/Diaoyutai/Senkakus were added to that by the same military means.

4. The defeated Japanese Empire signed away its right to territory acquired by military means after 1895 through the instrument of surrender and Treaty of Taipei.

5. The Diaoyu/Diaoyutai/Senkakus were held in limbo under US administration while Okinawa wasn’t (their status being duly acknowledged as different from the Japanese home islands or even the rest of Okinawa)

6. Finally they were handed to Japan administration by a unilateral US decision.

That’s at least two periods in modern history during which the islands pass the ‘reasonable’ test of not being part of the same entity as Okinawa. Their inclusion into it was down to a simple act of Cold War realpolitik on behalf of the administering US.

As far as I know Ryukyuan, Japanese and Chinese fishermen used them for occasional and temporary shelter and food processing for the most part. Those fishermen continued to use them after the Meiji government claimed the islands.

No one has ever lived permanently on the islands, and no one has ever been kicked off by force.

There’s one of the big problems, right there. Without a permanent presence a la Dokdo or Taiping Island, authority over them is really a legal free-for-all of differing interpretations and historic justifications since there’s no other universally-agreed determiner of ownership in international law. The Japanese holding onto the populated islands despite signing away their post-1895 conquests is justifiable by that yardstick but the uninhabited ones are a different kettle of fishing platforms.


Or maybe I'm just having an especially mong day and am not grasping something very simple here.

I was probably just not being very coherent this morning. Puking kids doth not a good night’s sleep make.
 
You're kidding, right?

There's a huge difference between churning out cassette players or cars, and churning out hideously complex systems like modern combat aircraft. Every F-15J the Japanese made, cost them twice as much as the US-built equivalent. They spent years building their own pimped F-16 (the F-2, link below), and ended up with something far heavier, slower, and less capable - for exactly the eye-watering costs you mention; four times the cost of an F-16. Their satellite launching capability isn't particularly impressive (compare SpaceX and Falcon with JAXA and the H-II), and their nuclear industry is a true tale of woe...

Basically, when it comes to the big complicated stuff, they're no better than us, and occasionally worse.

Mitsubishi F-2 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

You seem strangely hung up on the F-2, but seem rather unaware of the purpose of the F-2, allow me to help you.

http://www.mindef.gov.sg/content/im...__Technology Transfer and the F-2 Fighter.pdf

And yes, Japan is now allowing arms exports.
 
As far as practical defence capability China is well in advance of Japan, for all their 'made under licence' clever US clobber and shiny ships.

The Chinese have superb Sea mines and their torpedoes are rather scary. Presuming that China is the copycat, rather backward nation of the late 80's is a little silly.
 

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