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China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

Those with the brains and the means would do well to start learning Mandarin.

好好學習,天天向上. :wink:
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
RIP
Perhaps the tails side of the nickel whose head says 'Europe look after yourselves a bit more' says 'and keep your noses out of the Pacific, we no more want you meddling there than we ever did'. I would much doubt that our or the Fr navy will serve much outside the Atlantic and Indian oceans in the strategic future, apart from some chummy stuff with Malaysia and Oz/NZ.
 
As far as the Sino-Japanese territorial disputes are concerned, to my certain knowledge Japan has renounced claim to lands gained at the expense of China at least twice - the surrender instrument in 1945 and the one-on-one equivalent, the 1952 Treaty of Taipei. Despite this, they were happy enough to take the islands off the US's hands and then unilaterally abrogate the latter once oil and gas were discovered in the waters around them. Coincidentally, no doubt, this abrogation was also in 1972 - the same year they switched diplomatic recognition from ROC to PRC.

They still talk about 'negotiating in good faith', though.
 

beetroot4000

Old-Salt
The major trouble with chinas ecconomy is its based on slave labour more or less. And as they become more of a super power they will more than likely be pushed into making better working condition for their workers, and if they get more rights and more pay it'l no longer be cheaper to get things made in China, and if that happens they will be in the major poo. Also if they keep making inferior shit and it costs more, people would rather buy home made products.
 
China is a particularly nasty and vicious Fascist state,

Brilliant! Simply brilliant, coming from a representative of a nation that hasn't stopped murdering since 1991!

China is "particularly nasty and vicious" because every war US/UK fought in the past 20 years China turned to its own economic advantage without spilling any blood! That's what gets "civilised nations" the most!
 
China is a particularly nasty and vicious Fascist state, but they're patient. With their near-slave labour force and increasing control of global manufacturing and transport, they will in the end dominate without the need for major war.


Not quite. The working masses are unhappy and not shy about letting the bosses know.

Chinese protestors publicly beat up corrupt official's associate

We don't hear about often n the west but it does happen. Recent State sponsored "demonstrations" against the Japanese got out of hand a tad

2012 China anti-Japanese demonstrations - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Their control of overseas based resources is somewhat shaky, not massively but unrest is out there, resulting in the death of Chinese officials and overseas workers
 
near-slave labour force

slave labour more or less

Twice in the same thread? Truth really needs to get those velcro fasteners for its footwear.

On the low wage issue, wages have been rising consistently.

As for slavery:

Refusing the work if it doesn't pay enough.

Refusing to let the piss be taken.

The reality of migrant labour and why people do it? The horse's mouth says...

It's Current Affairs, lads. Not Stereotypes-R-Us.
 
The major trouble with chinas ecconomy is its based on slave labour more or less. And as they become more of a super power they will more than likely be pushed into making better working condition for their workers, and if they get more rights and more pay it'l no longer be cheaper to get things made in China, and if that happens they will be in the major poo. Also if they keep making inferior shit and it costs more, people would rather buy home made products.

The market is no longer dependent on a slave-like labour system, but yes- it is hardly ideal and abuses exist. China has recently passed a threshold where the demand for labour has outstripped the demand for work and they are entering in to an era where companies who want to retain trained, enthusiastic staff need to provide for them. Migrant workers who make up the infrastructure and surge capacity of the Chinese economy are finding their place in an urbanised economy and within a few years will probably be recognised by local governments in the large urban centres.

For the Chinese Communist Party the issue they have is retaining legitimacy. In much the same way as Dynastic China of pre-40's China was dependent on the 'Heavenly Mandate' to remain in power (through the obervation of omens to justify power) so is the CCP exclusively dependent on consistent GDP growth to justify its rather strict governance (smartascarrots will probably have a better angle on this than me. If they lose the Heavenly Mandate they lose. China does not want to go to war because they'll lose money- if everyone loses money the Party fails. Shit bust, that's how it will play.

You are living a little in the past here, and you need to be aware that China is very nearly ready to manufacture high technology products. It does not take much effort to compete with the US automotive industry now, but when they start designing and selling advanced nano-technology or inventing super efficient batteries for electric transport needs the US will shit its pants hard.
 
For the Chinese Communist Party the issue they have is retaining legitimacy. In much the same way as Dynastic China of pre-40's China was dependent on the 'Heavenly Mandate' to remain in power (through the obervation of omens to justify power) so is the CCP exclusively dependent on consistent GDP growth to justify its rather strict governance (smartascarrots will probably have a better angle on this than me. If they lose the Heavenly Mandate they lose. China does not want to go to war because they'll lose money- if everyone loses money the Party fails. Shit bust, that's how it will play.

Legitimacy is the big factor and one which is often overlooked or misinterpreted. After 100 years of revolution, China's slowly slipping back into the mould that used to shape the Imperial way - trying to be itself, in fact rather than trying to imitate others. Yes, it will adapt things from outside that are useful but it isn't consciously trying to ape the 'European' way of doing things anymore by adopting foreign political ideologies.

Where the Sino-Japanese territorial dispute fits in is into the Chinese consciousness of having had their national self-respect taken from them - the 'Century of Humiliation' narrative. This isn't something whipped up by the CCP, although they undoubtedly use it for domestic political advantage. The extent to which similar sentiment spontaneously erupted on Taiwan last year over the same Japanese actions is proof enough that it's a groundswell and not an artifice, IMO. When you have the DPP openly backing the KMT president on any issue, you know there are some pretty powerful popular sentiments at work.

Both the Republic of China and the People's Republic have as their founding justification the rebuilding of China and the overturning of all those 'humiliations' that preceded the fall of the Qing Empire. The Japanese continuing to enjoy their spoils from that period despite crossing their hearts and hoping to die still gets under the popular skin, in both of the 'One Chinas'. Their governments enhance legitimacy by delivering the national need for that slightly Israeli-esque 'never again' sentiment that dominates foreign policy.
 
Any country needs to make as sure as possible that trade routes off its coast aren't only open at the discretion of a third party. In China's case, the third party in question is the source of an astounding amount of hostile rhetoric, particularly around election season.


The problem China faces, is they seem to misunderstand how ferociously America will defend its right to roam were it pleases.
China may imagine the waters within 400 miles if its coast as its private lake, but the Americans, and their rather powerful Blue Water best bezzers Japan, will most defo dissuade them of that idea if push comes to shove.
 

ARRSENIPPON

Old-Salt
As far as the Sino-Japanese territorial disputes are concerned, to my certain knowledge Japan has renounced claim to lands gained at the expense of China at least twice - the surrender instrument in 1945 and the one-on-one equivalent, the 1952 Treaty of Taipei. Despite this, they were happy enough to take the islands off the US's hands.
Um. Japan has never considered these islands to be part of China. The Japanese view is that they were terra nullius until claimed by the Meiji government in the late 19th century.
The Chinese view seems to be that the islands were discovered by Zhang He and his fleet of 3,000ft helicopter carriers (the rule is that they must get bigger & more awesome with each retelling), but that sadly the relevant original paperwork was eaten by someone's pet rabbit during a lunch break sometime in the mid 1740s*.
Truth is no one has a very good claim to them, except perhaps the long defunct Ryukyu kingdom or the Dutch, who were the first to map the islands.
The oil and gas seem less exciting now we've got - or are about to get, possibly - more methane clathrate & rare earth than you can shake a stick at.

*note to the credulous: I made this bit up.



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Siddar

Old-Salt
China is a particularly nasty and vicious Fascist state, but they're patient. With their near-slave labour force and increasing control of global manufacturing and transport, they will in the end dominate without the need for major war.

Well said its just to bad the Chinese are messing up there future by pushing minor territorial claims.

China is showing signs of inpatients along with being emotionally trapped by its past history.
 
No one has mentioned Vietnam so far. But the Vietnamese don't like the Chinese very much and despite the disparity in size gave them a good flip flopping not long after the Vn War, when China invaded Vietnam. This was just after the Vietnamese got a bit miffed when the Khmer invaded a bit of the Mekong Delta and killed around 400 civvies. At that point the Vietnamese rolled the KR all the way back to Phnom Penh and liberated Cambodia.

More recently, Vietnam has been in conflict with China over some islands and the surrounding seas which are said to be awash with oil:

"China claims by far the largest portion of territory - an area stretching hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan. Beijing has said its right to the area come from 2,000 years of history where the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation". BBC News.

The Vn rebuttal goes like this:

[FONT=Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif]"Vietnam hotly disputes China's historical account, saying China had never claimed sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s. Vietnam says both island chains are entirely within its territory. It says it has actively ruled over both the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century - and has the documents to prove it". BBC News.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif]I wonder what they call the Islands in their respective languages.[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helmet, Freesans, sans-serif]I digress. The Filipinos are also claiming a slice of umbrella and fish, but the Vnese have worked a bit of a flanker. They have given all of the prospecting rights for those areas to India. Which could prove interesting.[/FONT]
 
China & America are going to fight in the Pacific Ocean you say?

Will it be on telly?
 
Um. Japan has never considered these islands to be part of China. The Japanese view is that they were terra nullius until claimed by the Meiji government in the late 19th century.

I was careful to phrase it as 'lands gained at the expense of China' because of that. The Ryukyu Kingdom managed as a tributary state to both Emperors and Shoguns, steering a fairly neutral path until that rapid expansion of military force in the latter 1800s. The Japanese interpretation - "the only habitual use of the islands that counts is the one we decide does" - is just as cynical and self-serving as anything from the Sino-Chinese side, if I can call it that.

Somebody else was using them before the Meiji claim. That somebody else was swept into history at the point of a bayonet as a direct result of the activities the Japanese government was supposed to have renounced - twice.
 

seaweed

LE
Book Reviewer
RIP
No one has mentioned Vietnam so far. But the Vietnamese don't like the Chinese very much and despite the disparity in size gave them a good flip flopping not long after the Vn War, when China invaded Vietnam. This was just after the Vietnamese got a bit miffed when the Khmer invaded a bit of the Mekong Delta and killed around 400 civvies. At that point the Vietnamese rolled the KR all the way back to Phnom Penh and liberated Cambodia.

More recently, Vietnam has been in conflict with China over some islands and the surrounding seas which are said to be awash with oil:

"China claims by far the largest portion of territory - an area stretching hundreds of miles south and east from its most southerly province of Hainan. Beijing has said its right to the area come from 2,000 years of history where the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation". BBC News.

The Vn rebuttal goes like this:

"Vietnam hotly disputes China's historical account, saying China had never claimed sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s. Vietnam says both island chains are entirely within its territory. It says it has actively ruled over both the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century - and has the documents to prove it". BBC News.

I wonder what they call the Islands in their respective languages.

I digress. The Filipinos are also claiming a slice of umbrella and fish, but the Vnese have worked a bit of a flanker. They have given all of the prospecting rights for those areas to India. Which could prove interesting.


Which brings us back to the S China Sea which, I have been pointing out from my armchair for some time now, has all the ingredients for the next flashpoint, particularly considering how many different nations share its coastline and how many historically unregarded bits of rock are now seen as oil and gas field markers.
 
Perhaps the tails side of the nickel whose head says 'Europe look after yourselves a bit more' says 'and keep your noses out of the Pacific, we no more want you meddling there than we ever did'. I would much doubt that our or the Fr navy will serve much outside the Atlantic and Indian oceans in the strategic future, apart from some chummy stuff with Malaysia and Oz/NZ.

this is the cause of my great doubt over the UK's ability to remain neutral in any major hostilities in the Far East.

I very much doubt the UK would be able to remain on the fence if Chinese posture towards Australia ever changed to anything even remotely threatening. Seeing as Oz have rather openly sided with the US by allowing base rights in the region, they're seemingly intent on forsaking their won neutrality on the containment of China.

The UK's vast cultural link to Australia in addition to the couple of outdated defence agreements in the region (Brunei & Singapore) make us far more susceptible to being dragged into affairs than we dare admit.
 
The Aussies and New Zealanders managed to keep reasonably well clear of the machinations of the Soviets over Europe.

I'm sure we can extend them the same courtesy. While shouting suitable words of encouragement of course.
 
The Chinese are cautious, the aggresive North Korean activity is simply China wishing to test America's resolve, it's simply another chess move....and we are still playing ludo!
 
Ive got a great idea.... why not simply use these islands for the next nuclear test... like in the 50s, the yanks could simply erase them ... and bring peace to the area.. rather like a parent confiscating a disputed football.
 

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