China - and the dangerous drift to war in Asia

I posted several articles on the exact state of the Taiwanese armed forces, does not make for good reading. Meanwhile the Chinese continue to aggressively face off with the Indian and US militaries at the same time. I know who I would back
I suppose that my disagreeement with your analysis, is predicated on two basic points, which we've already covered:-

1. China is a continental power and without the mass, its going to have to heavily on technology and surprise, which is a forte of america. So china, despite its advances will not be able to control the battlespace and your playing to the americans strength.
2. The clear sense in some quarters, that the ROC Military is a paper tiger and the taiwanese people won't fight. The evidence is the military is going through a transformational change and underrestimating an enemy is dangerous to any plan.

In Summary:-
If the Taiwanese do fight, then the PLA will inevitably become bogged down and that opens up a US led operation to interdict the formosa straights for a period long enough for the logistics to become a losing problem.
 
Any invasion of Taiwan by anyone has to succeed before the late summer typhoon season knocks dirty great holes in the seaborne and airborne MSRs. That means take, hold, secure and defend all of the critical objectives and vital ground.

Not happening.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
Did you read/comprehend this part of the post.

"its complete lack of compliance in many of the globally accepted norms in human rights, theft, intellectual or otherwise, and its ruthlessness in pursuit of this aim.

It’s implication in the trashing of the world economy through COVID is already of major concern, that along with the silent subversion it has been carrying out in various Western countries."

Russia to an extent, India less so, and doesn’t apply to the US.

You demand people don’t be condescending. yet demonstrate this childish attitude/comprehension.

Get a grip.

When you talk utter rubbish it is hard to debate.

WHO report pretty much cleared China. Russia and India have had awful human rights abuses, but as almost every single one of your posts o this forum suggests, you have a deep hatred of anything Chinese that clouds you to reasoned argument, Knob.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
I suppose that my disagreeement with your analysis, is predicated on two basic points, which we've already covered:-

1. China is a continental power and without the mass, its going to have to heavily on technology and surprise, which is a forte of america. So china, despite its advances will not be able to control the battlespace and your playing to the americans strength.
2. The clear sense in some quarters, that the ROC Military is a paper tiger and the taiwanese people won't fight. The evidence is the military is going through a transformational change and underrestimating an enemy is dangerous to any plan.

In Summary:-
If the Taiwanese do fight, then the PLA will inevitably become bogged down and that opens up a US led operation to interdict the formosa straights for a period long enough for the logistics to become a losing problem.


This is where we disagree. You claim that China will not be able to control the battlespace and this is indeed America's strength. I strongly disagree here.

This report below validates some of your points, but even though it is quite pro US, admits any US defence of Taiwan would be risky



The below BI report is based on an assement by a former US deputy defence secretary and highlights areas such as Cyber, AI and air to air and air to ground that China has surpassed the US in. All areas fundamental to controlling the battlespace as you mention. This does not even cover the extensive anti-sat weapons the Chinese have developed in order to blind the US. As we both know, by the time it gets to that stage the next step could be nukes. I am of the opinion the US will not go that far in order to defend Taiwan

 
This is where we disagree. You claim that China will not be able to control the battlespace and this is indeed America's strength. I strongly disagree here.

This report below validates some of your points, but even though it is quite pro US, admits any US defence of Taiwan would be risky



The below BI report is based on an assement by a former US deputy defence secretary and highlights areas such as Cyber, AI and air to air and air to ground that China has surpassed the US in. All areas fundamental to controlling the battlespace as you mention. This does not even cover the extensive anti-sat weapons the Chinese have developed in order to blind the US. As we both know, by the time it gets to that stage the next step could be nukes. I am of the opinion the US will not go that far in order to defend Taiwan

I haven't read anything, apart from a brief glance at wikipedia and the force strengths of the ROC and my own, not inconsiderable knowledge of all things military. I would suggest you go and read some of the stuff smartascarrots is writing, as he clearly has a better inside clue of the geography.

The obstacles to a succesful operations are many and that complicates any cunning plan. All the brain trusts seem to be saying is the result, in no longer a foregone conclusion (american/ROC victory). So if you were the COS of the PLA, would you risk all your best kit and men on such a risky adventure ?

The policy of undermining the democracy is clearly the better strategy for now and china might have to wait another 99 years to get its greedy mitts on taiwan.
 
The policy of undermining the democracy is clearly the better strategy for now and china might have to wait another 99 years to get its greedy mitts on taiwan.
At which point, the PRC, Taiwan, democracy itself and global affairs will have changed, possibly out of all recognition.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
I haven't read anything, apart from a brief glance at wikipedia and the force strengths of the ROC and my own, not inconsiderable knowledge of all things military. I would suggest you go and read some of the stuff smartascarrots is writing, as he clearly has a better inside clue of the geography.

The obstacles to a succesful operations are many and that complicates any cunning plan. All the brain trusts seem to be saying is the result, in no longer a foregone conclusion (american/ROC victory). So if you were the COS of the PLA, would you risk all your best kit and men on such a risky adventure ?

The policy of undermining the democracy is clearly the better strategy for now and china might have to wait another 99 years to get its greedy mitts on taiwan.

I am no expert but been following Chinese mil developmenst for over 10 years, you just admitted

"I haven't read anything, apart from a brief glance at wikipedia"

I have also supplied links from western sources outlining relative Chinese military strengths that support my argument which you can choose to read or not read in order to enhance your knowledge.

Shall we leave this there for now?
 
This is a picture I took about 10 years ago from Qishingtan Beach in Hualien County. It illustrates quite well why the East coast is not a good proposition for a hostile landing.

1614245404662.png


The continental shelf drops away quite sharply a few hundred metres from the beach, the landing site itself is overlooked from all sides by mountains and the land routes off the beach are either narrow coastal strips running roughly due north and due south; or an unutterably steep climb to the west.

This is the road to the north:

Capture2.JPG


This is the terrain that awaits anyone travelling west:

Capture.JPG


The south is slightly easier going but leads nowhere of any military value. Any movement in any direction will be under continual observation, needs to cross multiple rivers, ravines and/or huge boulder fields, and is subject to regular unpredictable earthquakes and landslides.
 
You seem to have missed the fact that they are posts that make a point of distinguishing between the Chinese people and the CCP.
Who are, of course, alien beings who beamed down from the mothership into China and have nothing whatsoever to do with Chinese people...
 

IndiaGB

Clanker
Who are, of course, alien beings who beamed down from the mothership into China and have nothing whatsoever to do with Chinese people...
Yep, they rule the subjects. Not representing them or their voices (maybe they do partly). You would not hold civillians responsible for administration wrongdoings? China isn't one, its many.
 
I am no expert but been following Chinese mil developmenst for over 10 years, you just admitted

"I haven't read anything, apart from a brief glance at wikipedia"

I have also supplied links from western sources outlining relative Chinese military strengths that support my argument which you can choose to read or not read in order to enhance your knowledge.

Shall we leave this there for now?
Look, your perfectly right to highlight the fact, that the ROC have lost full control of the formosa straight and nobody denies it. The ROC can't stop the landings in its totality and judging by its force configuration, it knows it too and won't try.

The PLA won't even see the ROC until the landings are a few miles out and the resultant battle will be heavy casualties on both sides and on Taiwan the Chinese numbers are negated, as every citizen of taiwan is a potential enemy and resupply is a truck or stockpile away.
 
This is a picture I took about 10 years ago from Qishingtan Beach in Hualien County. It illustrates quite well why the East coast is not a good proposition for a hostile landing.

View attachment 552383

The continental shelf drops away quite sharply a few hundred metres from the beach, the landing site itself is overlooked from all sides by mountains and the land routes off the beach are either narrow coastal strips running roughly due north and due south; or an unutterably steep climb to the west.

This is the road to the north:

View attachment 552387

This is the terrain that awaits anyone travelling west:

View attachment 552384

The south is slightly easier going but leads nowhere of any military value. Any movement in any direction will be under continual observation, needs to cross multiple rivers, ravines and/or huge boulder fields, and is subject to regular unpredictable earthquakes and landslides.
Whilst I do think a landing on the east coast would be disruptive. It would also be extremely vulnerable and it would be lucky to survive, as I guess the ROC would step out of its evasion strategy and throw the kitchen sink at it and if a US sub is lurking around Taiwan its most likely going to be off the eastern shore.
 
Whilst I do think a landing on the east coast would be disruptive. It would also be extremely vulnerable and it would be lucky to survive, as I guess the ROC would step out of its evasion strategy and throw the kitchen sink at it and if a US sub is lurking around Taiwan its most likely going to be off the eastern shore.


Given that the USN Navy uses almost totally Nuclear powered subs and SSNs prefer proper deep water for operations. An attack on the East Coast of Taiwan would require a number of hours transiting seriously deep water........
 
 
The Chinese Navy is now the largest in the world. They are on the verge of completing a 85,000 ton CATOBAR carrier (20,000 tons heavier then our QE class). They plan 3 more of these in addition to their two smaller carrier. They already have 3 Wasp class LHDAs and plan for 4 more.

Most of their heavy fighters (SU-30, J-15, J-20) can fly over Taiwan without refuelling.

They will soon have over 50 very modern air defence destroyers

40 Modern frigates

over 60 submarines, half of which can be considered modern and adding around 1 every month

The combined fleet of modern J-10, J-20, J-11, J-15, SU-30 numbers upwards of 1,200 supported by around 20 AEW planes, and around 30 tankers.

The ballistic and cruise missile numbers are absolutely mind boggling.



To match this Taiwan will have

150 F-16s and 40 Mirages. Most people do not bother counting the 100 off F-CK-1s but suppose you can.
The Taiwan navy has around 10 old US Frigates, 5 French frigates and 2 40 year old Dutch submarines.

This is another Cold War getting close to a head..
I think this one will kick off.

I had been wondering why we had gone from Cuts, Cuts, Cuts to lets build 2 of the best Aircraft Carriers in the world.
I mean - we ( sorry , That **** Blair ) had scrapped RYA Britannia ( which doubled as a Hospital ship) - but NOW we can build 2x mega Aircraft Carriers AND by 2030 will have another 23 significant naval floaty things.

War is coming. In the Pacific. China is going to start it . Taiwan ( not HK ) will be the starter.
 

MissingOTC

War Hero
This is another Cold War getting close to a head..
I think this one will kick off.

I had been wondering why we had gone from Cuts, Cuts, Cuts to lets build 2 of the best Aircraft Carriers in the world.
I mean - we ( sorry , That **** Blair ) had scrapped RYA Britannia ( which doubled as a Hospital ship) - but NOW we can build 2x mega Aircraft Carriers AND by 2030 will have another 23 significant naval floaty things.

War is coming. In the Pacific. China is going to start it . Taiwan ( not HK ) will be the starter.

I hope you are wrong, no need to lose British lives and treasure over Taiwan or HK. Better have a relationship with China that makes the UK more wealthy. The EU have already done this via a trade agreement with China. The US is having harsh but direct talks with them. Imagine if a year or so from now US and China come to some trade understanding. The UK will be the only one left out in the cold. For what geo-strategic benefit?
 

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