I suppose that my disagreeement with your analysis, is predicated on two basic points, which we've already covered:-I posted several articles on the exact state of the Taiwanese armed forces, does not make for good reading. Meanwhile the Chinese continue to aggressively face off with the Indian and US militaries at the same time. I know who I would back
1. China is a continental power and without the mass, its going to have to heavily on technology and surprise, which is a forte of america. So china, despite its advances will not be able to control the battlespace and your playing to the americans strength.
2. The clear sense in some quarters, that the ROC Military is a paper tiger and the taiwanese people won't fight. The evidence is the military is going through a transformational change and underrestimating an enemy is dangerous to any plan.
If the Taiwanese do fight, then the PLA will inevitably become bogged down and that opens up a US led operation to interdict the formosa straights for a period long enough for the logistics to become a losing problem.